2d6<=3: 4, 2; Hits: 1
1d6<=4: 5; Hits: 0
@VictoryFirst The German sub fires back:
[dice 1d6<=2]
1d6<=2: 5; Hits: 0
@VictoryFirst Game History
Round: 1
Purchase Units - Americans
Americans buy 2 fighters and 2 submarines; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;
Combat Move - Americans
Turning on Edit Mode
1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from United States to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
Combat - Americans
EDIT: Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
EDIT: British loiter and taunt; Americans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 transport
EDIT: Germans defend with 3 submarines
EDIT: 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits
EDIT: 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
EDIT: 1 destroyer owned by the Americans and 1 transport owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
EDIT: 3 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
EDIT: Americans win
EDIT: Battle casualty summary: Battle score (TUV change) for attacker is 4
EDIT: Recording Battle Statistics
Non Combat Move - Americans
EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Celtic Sea Sea Zone: 2 submarines
EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Celtic Sea Sea Zone: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom
Place Units - Americans
2 submarines placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone
2 fighters placed in United States
Turn Complete - Americans
Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 40 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
I wanted to calculate the statistics here but I realized I have been calculating the sub battles incorrectly. When subs are NOT hit, they submerge and don’t fire back. This is not represented in the battle calculator, which assumes the subs do fire back. Fortunately you can calculate it by hand however for that I need to calculate the odds for 1, 2, and 3 hits and I am not sure how to do that.
UK attacked with 2 F, 1 DD and 1 B.
The chance for exactly one hit would be (3/6)^3 * (4/6) + (3/6)^3 * (2/6) ?
Oh actually I think it should be
(3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)
TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved
Game History
Round: 2
Purchase Units - Germans
Germans buy 14 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;
Combat Move - Germans
1 submarine moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
Germans take U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone from Americans
1 submarine moved from North Sea Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
1 bomber moved from Germany to Celtic Sea Sea Zone
1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Tunisia to Libya
Germans take Libya from British
1 fighter moved from Algeria to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
1 battleship moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from Finland to North Atlantic Sea Zone
1 fighter moved from Norway to North Atlantic Sea Zone
1 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
Germans take Karelia from Russians
Combat - Germans
Battle in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
Germans attack with 1 bomber, 2 fighters and 2 submarines
British defend with 1 destroyer; Americans defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
Germans roll dice for 2 submarines in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,67 expected hits
Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers and 1 transport in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1,17 expected hits
2 submarines owned by the Germans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
1 transport owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 fighters in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 2/3 hits, 1,67 expected hits
Americans roll dice for 2 destroyers in Celtic Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 1,00 expected hits
1 destroyer owned by the British and 1 destroyer owned by the Americans lost in Celtic Sea Sea Zone
Germans win with 1 bomber and 2 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 16
Casualties for Germans: 2 submarines
Casualties for Americans: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
Battle in North Atlantic Sea Zone
Germans attack with 3 fighters
Russians defend with 1 submarine and 1 transport
1 submarine owned by the Russians submerged
Germans roll dice for 3 fighters in North Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/3 hits, 1,50 expected hits
Russians roll dice for 1 transport in North Atlantic Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0,17 expected hits
1 transport owned by the Russians lost in North Atlantic Sea Zone
Germans win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
Casualties for Russians: 1 transport
Battle in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
Germans attack with 1 battleship and 1 fighter
British defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
Germans roll dice for 1 battleship and 1 fighter in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1,17 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 destroyer and 1 transport in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits
1 battleship owned by the Germans lost in Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
1 fighter owned by the Germans retreated
British win with 1 destroyer and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is -24
Casualties for Germans: 1 battleship
Battle in Libya
Non Combat Move - Germans
Turning on Edit Mode
EDIT: Changing ownership of Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians to Germans
EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
1 fighter moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Crete
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Malta to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Sicilian Sea Sea Zone to Libya
1 infantry moved from Algeria to Tunisia
1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to Netherlands-Belgium
1 bomber moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
3 fighters moved from North Atlantic Sea Zone to Finland
2 infantry moved from Norway to Finland
1 armour moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine S.S.R.
1 armour moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Bessarabia
2 infantry moved from Rumania to Bessarabia
2 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Hungary to Bessarabia
2 armour moved from Germany to Poland
21 infantry moved from Germany to Poland
1 aaGun moved from Germany to Poland
1 aaGun moved from Austria to Germany
1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Netherlands-Belgium to Germany
1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Rumania
1 infantry moved from Yugoslavia to Northern Italy
Place Units - Germans
14 infantry placed in Germany
Turn Complete - Germans
Germans collect 44 PUs; end with 45 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Americans regular : -0,17
Russians regular : -0,17
Germans regular : -2,67
British regular : 1,33
@VictoryFirst It’s worse, actually. UK scored 0 hits in their attack with 3 @ 3 and 1 @ 4:
(1/2)^3*(1/3) = ~4.125%
Expanding that to include the US attackers and the fact that in total only one hit was scored between all of them would be more difficult. I could probably do it but will need a bit to hash it out.
Yeah so what I wanted to calculate is the average TUV swing of the battle. For that, you would multiply the TUV swing of each scenario from the German perspective with the chance of that scenario coming up.
So to give an example, I will use this notation X / Y where X is the number of hits that the British scored and Y the number of German hits.
0 / 0
This would have a TUV swing of 0 so no need to look at this.
0 / 1 would be 4.125% * 33% = 1.4%
TUV swing: +12
1.4% * 12 = 0.17 IPC
1 / 0 not sure how to calculate this chance
TUV swing: -8
1 / 1 something times 33%
TUV swing: +4
2 / 0
etc.
Probably the best way to do this is to write a program that rolls these dice 10000 times and then let it add up the number of times a certain number of hits has been scored. Or even better, let it simulate the combat entirely and calculate the average TUV swing from there. However right now I am too tired to work on that lol.
@VictoryFirst said in VF (Germany) vs. DoMan (Allies) | Original Europe, Game 6 - Balance 3.0:
(3/6)(3/6)(3/6)(2/6)3 + (3/6)(3/6)(3/6)*(4/6)
That is correct for exactly one hit for just the UK stuff. To add in the USA stuff, it becomes a bit more involved:
UK Force: 3 @ 3, 1 @ 4
US Force: 2 @ 3, 1 @ 4
Total force: 5@3, 2 @ 4
So to expand it, we have:
(ODDS OF 1 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 0 @4 HIT) + (ODDS OF 0 @3 HIT * ODDS OF 1 @4 HIT)
(5*(1/2)^5 * (1/3)^2) + (1/2)^5 * 2*(2/3)(1/3)
.0016/9 + .013889 = .0141 = 1.41%
@VictoryFirst Game History
Round: 2
Purchase Units - Russians
Russians buy 7 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs;
Combat Move - Russians
1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Leningrad to Karelia
1 artillery and 6 infantry moved from Russia to Karelia
1 infantry moved from Caucasus to Stalingrad
3 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Belorussia
1 armour moved from Belorussia to Baltic States
Russians take Baltic States from Germans
1 armour moved from Baltic States to Belorussia
2 artilleries moved from East Poland to Belorussia
11 infantry moved from Leningrad to Belorussia
1 submarine moved from North Atlantic Sea Zone to British Convoy 4 Sea Zone
British take British Convoy 4 Sea Zone from Germans
Combat - Russians
Battle in Karelia
Russians attack with 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 6 infantry
Germans defend with 1 infantry
Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 6 infantry in Karelia, round 2 : 0/9 hits, 2.67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Karelia, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
Russians roll dice for 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 6 infantry in Karelia, round 3 : 4/9 hits, 2.67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Karelia, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Karelia
1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Karelia
Russians win, taking Karelia from Germans with 1 artillery, 1 bomber, 1 fighter and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
Non Combat Move - Russians
1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from Karelia to Belorussia
Place Units - Russians
7 infantry placed in Leningrad
Turn Complete - Russians
Russians collect 22 PUs; end with 24 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans regular : 0.33
Russians regular : -1.33
Game History
Round: 2
Purchase Units - British
British buy 2 carriers; Remaining resources: 5 PUs;
Combat Move - British
1 infantry moved from Syria to Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone
1 infantry moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Libya
1 destroyer moved from Eastern Mediterranean Sea Zone to Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
1 armour, 1 artillery and 3 infantry moved from Egypt to Libya
1 bomber and 2 fighters moved from United Kingdom to Leningrad
Combat - British
Battle in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
British attack with 1 destroyer
Germans defend with 1 transport
British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 destroyer in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 transport in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
1 transport owned by the Germans lost in Sicilian Sea Sea Zone
British win with 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
Casualties for Germans: 1 transport
Battle in Libya
British attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry
Germans defend with 1 armour, 2 artilleries and 2 infantry
British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Libya, round 2 : 2/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 2 artilleries and 2 infantry in Libya, round 2 : 0/5 hits, 1.67 expected hits
2 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Libya
British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Libya, round 3 : 0/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 2 artilleries in Libya, round 3 : 0/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 4 infantry in Libya, round 4 : 0/6 hits, 1.67 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 2 artilleries in Libya, round 4 : 2/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
2 infantry owned by the British lost in Libya
British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Libya, round 5 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 2 artilleries in Libya, round 5 : 0/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits
1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in Libya
British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Libya, round 6 : 1/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 armour and 1 artillery in Libya, round 6 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 infantry owned by the British lost in Libya
1 artillery owned by the Germans lost in Libya
British roll dice for 1 armour, 1 artillery and 1 infantry in Libya, round 7 : 2/3 hits, 1.17 expected hits
Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Libya, round 7 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
1 infantry owned by the British lost in Libya
1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Libya
British win, taking Libya from Germans with 1 armour and 1 artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
Casualties for Germans: 1 armour, 2 artilleries and 2 infantry
Casualties for British: 4 infantry
Non Combat Move - British
Place Units - British
2 carriers placed in Atlantic Sea Zone
Turn Complete - British
British collect 21 PUs; end with 26 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Germans regular : -2.17
British regular : -3.33
@VictoryFirst Re: TUV calculator:
I can work on something for this later this week or this weekend. I’ll let you know.
@VictoryFirst Update to this. The calculator on this very site (http://calc.axisandallies.org/) already does most of what you are looking for (“simulates combat 10,000 times and checks number of times a certain number of hits have been scored”). You might want to look into using that unless there is some other functionality you need.
@VictoryFirst Back to the game for now:
Americans attack Germans in US Convoy Zone (6 IPC):
[dice 2d6<=2]
2d6<=2: 2, 1; Hits: 2
@VictoryFirst Game History
Round: 2
Purchase Units - Americans
Americans buy 3 fighters; Remaining resources: 4 PUs;
Combat Move - Americans
2 submarines moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
2 fighters moved from United States to Atlantic Sea Zone
1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to Germany
1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to Leningrad
Combat - Americans
Strategic bombing raid in Germany
Germans roll AA dice in Germany : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
1 bomber owned by the Americans killed by AA in Germany
Bombing raid costs 0 PUs
Battle in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
Americans attack with 2 submarines
Germans defend with 1 submarine
Americans roll dice for 2 submarines in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone
Americans win, taking U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone from Germans with 2 submarines remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
Non Combat Move - Americans
Place Units - Americans
3 fighters placed in United States
Turn Complete - Americans
Americans collect 40 PUs; end with 44 PUs
Combat Hit Differential Summary :
Americans regular : 1.33
Germans AA : 0.83
