Let’s pretend Japan does not hit SZ 30, thus saving 4 fighters and a carrier, but leaving the British fleet to harass them.
UK 1: Carrier, Fighter, Destroyer, 2 Transports, Submarine (SZ 30)
Japan 1: 2 Battleships, 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, 3 Transports, Submarine, 2 Destroyers (1 Transport lost as fodder in SZ 52)
USA 1: 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, Battleship, Destroyer, Transport (SZ 55)
UK 2: Carrier, Fighter, Destroyer, 2 Transports, Submarine (Either SZ 37 or SZ 47 with ownership of either E. Indies or New Guinea)
Japan 2: 2 Battleships, 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, 3 Transports, 3 Submarines, 2 Destroyers (SZ 60?)
USA 2: Battleship, 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, Transport, 5 Submarines, 2 Destroyers (SZ 55)
UK 3: Carrier, Fighter, Destroyer, 2 Transports, Submarine (Either SZ 37 or SZ 47 with ownership of both E. Indies and New Guinea)
Japan 3: 2 Battleships, 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, 3 Transports, 4 Submarines, 3 Destroyers (SZ 60/61?)
USA 3: 2 Battleships, 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, Transport, 7 Submarines, 2 Destroyers (SZ 55)
UK 4: Carrier, Fighter, Destroyer, 2 Transports, Submarine (SZ 45 with ownership of E. Indies?, New Guinea and Solomons)
Japan 4: 2 Battleships, 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, 3 Transports, 6 Submarines, 3 Destroyers (assuming no transports lost reclaiming E. Indies)
USA 4: 2 Battleships, 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, Transport, 7 Submarines, 2 Destroyers (SZ 45 with England)
USA 4: Carrier, 2 Fighters in SZ 55
Japan 5: Japan can attack SZ 45 and it will look like this:
Attacker: 2 Battleships, 2 Carriers, 4 Fighters, 3 Transports, 6 Submarines, 3 Destroyers, Bomber (assuming your other two fighters are assisting in taking India or other lands on Asia)
Defender: 2 Battleships, 3 Carriers, 5 Fighters, 3 Transports, 8 Submarines, 3 Destroyers
Estimated result of a battle to the death: Defender losses 8 Submarines, 2 Transports (saving American transport), 3 Destroyers. Attacker wiped out.
Attacker survives: 1.8% of the time
Defender survives: 98% of the time
Sure, it cost the allies 116 IPC in equipment. But Japan lost 243 and their entire navy and most of their air force to do it.
Meanwhile, sure, they have the Industrial Complex in India at this point, and have probably set up a trade of Novosibirsk with Russia. Germany’s probably consistently trading W. Russia, Ukraine and Karelai/Archangelsk with the allies and owns most of Africa.
But from this point on, Japan is no longer landing troops in Asia. Limiting them to 3-6 ground units a round while America cleans up the remaining islands and puts ICs in E. Indies and Borneo so they can land directly in FIC without needing a train.
If Japan falls and Russia falls, I think the Allies are ahead. England’s an island and it’ll take a turn or two for Germany to get transports in the water to even start landing. Meanwhile, America is secure enough to move the fleet anywhere and can land directly in Asia. Germany’s going to have to deal with 6 Industrial Complexes in Asia + an American fleet. (Manchuria, Kwangtung, FIC, Borneo, E. Indies and Japan. Total output 25 units a round, capacity wise.)
Yea, that’s 75 IPC a round if it’s all infantry. But with USA (42) + Japan (30) and, Buryatia, Yakut and Soviet Far East, America HAS 75 IPC a round! And if America doesn’t, then there’s no reason to say they HAVE to use all those ICs to capacity! Or even build 2 more in Asia (I’m assuming Japan built one somewhere after their navy was destroyed to at least be able to put feet on the street in Asia.)