16L G40 axis-dominion vs pete (allies) BM

[axis-dominion]

good choice, and good game. you doomed yourself with that attack on rostov

[-Pete]

I thought I was toast! you had like 50 mechanized units ready to sweep through to egypt

[-Pete]

my calc said like 24% chance of winning which was infinitely more than I thought I had

[-Pete]

good game indeed though

[JDOW]

@-Pete:

my calc said like 24% chance of winning which was infinitely more than I thought I had

Here is the point, a BM game is not over in case the Germans penetrate the middle east, especially as you had India back.
Keep in mind, Germans need to capture 8 VCs, how should this work with 50 units away from Russia?

You need to look at the big numbers:
TUV >+500 for the Allies after turn 10, thus usually means the Allies are ahead.
Also you were clearly ahead in terms of income (even after Germans penetrate middle east) and units on the board.

PLUS: Do not underestimate the ability of the Allies to shove units to Egypt in 2-3 turns. Transports rotating from SA to Egypt, US fighters and ground and stuff. Maybe Germans still capture it but they don’t grab entire Africa and they need so many units that Russia becomes an unleashed beast!

Also, wasn’t there a chance to retreat with the Russians at Rostov? Some people misjudge 24% because for 1-2 rounds the TUV can eve be rather even for low odds attack and the low odds just come from the cases the attacker fights till the end.

So daring such an attack is viable option if retreating in case the first round doesn’t go well is an option. And I guess that even in case you e.g. lose 10 units net in the first round your stack would still have been safe, wasn’t it?

[-Pete]

OK so my thoughts:

Germany was not just about to penetrate the ME but sweep it clean; all my units were involved in retaking India, which I had lost prematurely. Russia was already reduced to ~15 IPC and couldn’t stop the Axis stack from advancing. It felt like it was all downhill from there. Even if Ger splits her forces to head for the ME, she has plenty o time to build more to stop Russia from regaining any sort of income.

I was ahead in income, yes, for the time being, and was not doing critical damage anywhere, and the axis was only gonna get stronger.

[JDOW]

All I can say is: Allies had it under control and your judgment is way too pessimistic. Certainly not an insta win but some hard work, but certainly a position I would be more than happy to take over with the Allies including full confidence of dragging this position out into an Allied win.

I recommend to have a look into ADs game vs Gamerman. This game has some similarities: Gamers biggest advantage against you is his Russian position which still kept the Germans from progressing but AD has some advantages compared to this game: Egypt and middle east under control, more naval power in the Pacific.

But several things are similar (Russia and India safe but no break through against Axis’ position yet)

Still, you will see how big the Axis are in trouble in this game (not sure if AD already knows how much :D)
And I judge your position as even stronger than Gamermans. AD did not suffer such horrible early dice in that game.

[axis-dominion]

no actually, i didn’t realize that i’m in big trouble.

@JDOW:

All I can say is: Allies had it under control and your judgment is way too pessimistic. Certainly not an insta win but some hard work, but certainly a position I would be more than happy to take over with the Allies including full confidence of dragging this position out into an Allied win.

I recommend to have a look into ADs game vs Gamerman. This game has some similarities: Gamers biggest advantage against you is his Russian position which still kept the Germans from progressing but AD has some advantages compared to this game: Egypt and middle east under control, more naval power in the Pacific.

But several things are similar (Russia and India safe but no break through against Axis’ position yet)

Still, you will see how big the Axis are in trouble in this game (not sure if AD already knows how much :D)
And I judge your position as even stronger than Gamermans. AD did not suffer such horrible early dice in that game.

[JDOW]

fair enough, BM is everything but well know ground to me, let’s see where it goes.

[axis-dominion]

@JDOW:

fair enough, BM is everything but well know ground to me, let’s see where it goes.

Well I didn’t mean to say I think you’re wrong, just answering your question honestly that no I didn’t realize. Maybe you’re right, certainly some major challenges I face, but I don’t think axis are without options. I will have to see what to do about Korea now, but the game is dragging along so slowly it’s painful…