But surface ships are also needed. Sure, your theoretical best bang for the buck is the submarine, but in reality, 4 destroyers > 6 submarines, even though they have the same punch. They both have the same punch, and the same cost, but the submarines have a significantly smaller chance to hit than the destroyers do. (33% vs 50%)
Wow, just do some calculations, 6 submarines beat 4 destroyers really badly, the chance that there are remaining subs after the battle with all the destroyers destroyed is 75 %.
I’m strongly against the whole KJF thing, not because it doesn’t work, but because it doesn’t work 99% of the time. The single time i’ve lost to this strategy was a triplea ladder game a few days ago, where the following things happened:
UK1: I lose my SZ 59 tranny, SZ 45 sub, New Guinea and Borneo, UK fighter reinforces Pearl.
J1: I go to Pearl with 3 ftrs, BB, AC, DD, bomber, and get spanked, BB, AC, 2 fighters remain (bomber also dies). The SZ 59 DD of the UK proves to be invincible, butchers my carrier and fighter.
US1: US counters Pearl with BB tranny 2 figs and the bomber, loses the transport and a single fighter in the process.
UK2: the UK DD and sub kills 4 trannies of mine.
At this point, the IJN consists of a single battleship, and this is before J2.
In this case, and only in this case, i say it is preferable to attack Japan. Thinking about it the chance for all this happening is far far less than 1%. Maybe without a bit less biased dice for the allies, it can still work, but the overall percent of games where it will work is less than 1% for sure. And it doesn’t matter what the Allies do if they don’t get extremely lucky. The US can eventually build a fleet which can compete with Japan, but if he moves out of SZ 55 before turn 4 or so, then it will get really badly destroyed, while Japan happily hops on the Soviet Union. Of course, because of this, Germany will have africa, even worse etc. If the US waits for turn 5, then his fleet can stand against Japan’s but Japan will just sail away, and don’t care about losing ehmm… about 12 IPCs of islands? Which he will lose on turn 7 the earliest, by the time everything is under Japanese control to Novosibirsk. So, Japan just won’t care about that.
So, if the Japan player has some clue about the game, this strategy (US taking a 4 IPC island for a turn or two around turn 5 then gets his fleet obliterated OR US builds up and moves out but the war is over) won’t work unless the dice are extreme.