13L Playoffs R1 Arathorn (Axis) vs Hobo (Allies +17) NT

[arathorn]

@MrRoboto:

Giving such a great player as Hobo a +17 bid is courageous.

I don’t know you yet, Arathorn - so I’m rooting for Hobo, who crushed me clearly in two games.

Anyway, good luck and have fun you two.

Welcome to the thread MrRoboto. Glad to have you follow our game.
You’ve done well in the league yourself this year, so I am happy to have players like you watch us. It’s an honour!

Regarding this game and the bid, I would say it is all about the adaptation to the situation.
Hobo is indeed a very great player, and his stat in the league is nothing but very impressive. Especially his win streaks. So Hobo deserves all the respect due to a great A&A player.

However, he and I have never played a game before, so we both have the opportunity to “surprise” each other. And since he stated that he really wanted the Axis in the playoffs, I was willing to bid him up to take the Allies. He could have bid me up to +18, but he accepted the +17. I believe that one should always try to get the side you really want, your stronger side, in a competitive match like this one is. Development of your “weaker” side for those of us that aren’t equally strong with both sides (like allweneedislove) is for less competitive league games or for the lobby/play boardgames section.

Back to the bid, I think it is an exaggeration to use the word courageous regarding the size of the bid. Allow me to explain:

Let me first say that yes, a bid can affect the game one way or the other, that is of course true - but to what extent is a completely different debate. People need to stop being so afraid of bids, especially the larger ones, especially when we’re using 1 unit per territory limitation.

Think about it - the Allies start with a TUV of 2072. A 12 bid is only 0.57% added to the TUV. That’s not even a 1% addition! Everybody knows that in ONE single battle roll in a small to medium battle, that entire bid can be annihilated.

A 17 bid is only 0.82% added to the TUV, so not even such a “big bid” breaks the 1%.
Not until you have a bid of 21 will you have 1 single percent added in TUV, and even that isn’t proportionally considered “big”.

Statistically, it is almost insignificant, because dice will be rolled, and that can change everything.
When a battle in 112 with scramble can see a TUV swing of -74 for allies if they completely whiff or only get one hit (which I have seen happen, though rarely), a bid of 30 would suddenly not seem that big as the losses would be terrible.
Same goes for a failed G1 attack. Let us say that you capture France with only 2 tanks left (negative swing of 20, and strategically a weaker position, since instead of average of 12-13 units left, you only have 2, a swing of -10 units). If also a sea battle fails miserably and you’re short 3-4 planes, a bid of 6 could appear to be “massive” if placed correctly.

I am not discounting the process of using bids for determination of sides - BUT I am trying to be a “balancing voice” in the debate regarding bid sizes and its ramifications in the LONG run.

Short term, yes, a bid can say a lot, especially the way things look before the game starts. But then the dice have to be rolled, and any bid of less than 1% added to the TUV can be swallowed in one bad roll, in a small battle. And suddenly the “advantage” is gone, all do the a bad roll.

I started by saying, it is all about adaptation, and I will conclude by saying that regardless of bid size and placement, a player must then take that into consideration in the execution of the next turn. In this game, it wasn’t tempting to take out 91 with the regular 2 subs, since it would depend on luck with the extra sub there. But had I done it and succeeded, his bid would suddenly have been “reduced” to 11. Also, had he only had a bid of 11, and NOT placed a sub there, and I had taken 2 subs there and LOST, it would have been the same as if he got a bid of 17.

That might have been longer than I intended, but again, thank you for stopping by.
If you want a better and more precise opinion about “bid size” matters, you can ask Gamerman, as he and I share the same views on this.

Again, thank you for following the game, even though you “root” for hobo ;) hehe. Just kidding.

It will be a fun game!

[MrRoboto]

I totally agree, that something like a 12 bid isn’t much, compared to what happens during only a single battle. That’s why I don’t care that much if I receive a +15 bid or a +5.

That being said, certain thresholds are important. In some zones, one more unit might make the difference. If that unit means the attacker has 60% instead of 80% win chance, it could be a big issue. Personally, I hate attacking with only 60% success chance.

An artillery to Amur, an Art to Alexandria or Sudan, the med subs, the inf guinea - all of these starting bids have significant relevance. It’s not only the raw TUV that comes with the bid. It’s the opportunity that comes with some of these options.

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 1

Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 2 carriers, 1 destroyer and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - Americans

Non Combat Move - Americans
            1 submarine moved from 35 Sea Zone to 17 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer moved from 35 Sea Zone to 23 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Philippines to 31 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Western United States to 10 Sea Zone
            1 carrier and 1 fighter moved from 10 Sea Zone to 31 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
            1 artillery moved from 26 Sea Zone to Hawaiian Islands
            1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 10 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 10 Sea Zone to Wake Island
            1 bomber moved from Central United States to Wake Island
            1 fighter moved from Western United States to Wake Island
            1 artillery moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 cruiser, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 11 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Eastern United States to Western United States
            1 armour, 1 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Central United States to Western United States
            2 aaGuns moved from Eastern United States to Central United States
            2 fighters moved from Hawaiian Islands to Wake Island

Place Units - Americans
            2 carriers and 1 destroyer placed in 10 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber placed in Eastern United States

Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 52 PUs; end with 53 PUs total

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 1

Purchase Units - Chinese
            Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
            Chinese buy 4 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Chinese
            2 infantry moved from Kweichow to Yunnan
            1 infantry moved from Szechwan to Yunnan
            1 fighter moved from Szechwan to Yunnan

Combat - Chinese
            Battle in Yunnan
                Chinese attack with 1 fighter and 3 infantry
                Japanese defend with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Chinese win, taking Yunnan from Japanese with 1 fighter and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                Casualties for Chinese: 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Chinese
            2 infantry moved from Suiyuyan to Shensi
            1 fighter moved from Yunnan to Shensi
            5 infantry moved from Szechwan to Shensi

Place Units - Chinese
            4 infantry placed in Shensi

Turn Complete - Chinese
            Chinese collect 9 PUs; end with 9 PUs total
            Objective Chinese 1 Burma Road: Chinese met a national objective for an additional 6 PUs; end with 15 PUs

[hobo]

TripleA Move Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 1

Combat Move - British
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Adding units owned by British to 95 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Removing units owned by British from 98 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 submarine moved from 91 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 98 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to 95 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Malta to 95 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to 96 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 91 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 98 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from India to 39 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from India to 39 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 39 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 76 Sea Zone to Ethiopia
            1 artillery moved from 76 Sea Zone to Ethiopia
            1 infantry moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Ethiopia
            1 mech_infantry moved from Egypt to Ethiopia
            1 armour moved from Alexandria to 98 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Alexandria to 98 Sea Zone
            1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 98 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 76 Sea Zone to Ethiopia
            1 armour moved from 76 Sea Zone to Ethiopia

[hobo]

submerge/scramble orders for z95

[arathorn]

Send both fighters up to defend the italian glory!

[arathorn]

Could you roll the 95 battle on the forum?

Triplea does the sub battles incorrectly, and since it could have an affect in this battle, being subs on both sides, I’d prefer if it was rolled on the forum, and just edited in afterwards.

Thanks!

[arathorn]

I forgot to say - sub fights! 2 hits with the Italian sub ;)

[hobo]

How?  The subs are rolled separately along with air so it should be right from all the sub/air combats I’ve seen.  But anyways.

Italian sub
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (3)

[hobo]

UK 2subs 1cruiser
Rolls: 2@2 1@3; Total Hits: 12@2: (6, 3)1@3: (2)

[hobo]

UK 1fig 1tac 1bom
Rolls: 1@3 2@4; Total Hits: 31@3: (1)2@4: (2, 4)

[hobo]

ok I assume you use best def

Italy 1des 1cruiser 2fig
Rolls: 1@2 1@3 2@4; Total Hits: 11@2: (5)1@3: (6)2@4: (6, 2)

[hobo]

I’ll lose 1 sub

round 2 UK, sub cannot hit your fighter so 1cruiser 1fig 1tac 1 bom
Rolls: 2@3 2@4; Total Hits: 32@3: (1, 1)2@4: (6, 2)

[hobo]

Italy 1fig
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (2)

[hobo]

I’ll lose 1 bomber, rolling on triplea now.

[arathorn]

That was just incredible….

[arathorn]

@hobo:

How?  The subs are rolled separately along with air so it should be right from all the sub/air combats I’ve seen.  But anyways.

in battles with subs on both sides, and where one side has a destroyer, triplea makes you select casualties before all dice are rolled, before you know the rest of what you’ll roll. This causes the player to have to choose when they really shouldn’t. It is rare, but I thank you for rolling it on here.

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 1

Purchase Units - British
            British buy 10 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Purchase Units - UK_Pacific
            UK_Pacific buy 2 artilleries and 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - British
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Adding units owned by British to 95 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Removing units owned by British from 98 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 submarine moved from 91 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 98 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to 95 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Malta to 95 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Gibraltar to 96 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 91 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 98 Sea Zone to 96 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from India to 39 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from India to 39 Sea Zone
            1 cruiser moved from 39 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 39 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 76 Sea Zone to Ethiopia
            1 artillery moved from 76 Sea Zone to Ethiopia
            1 infantry moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Ethiopia
            1 mech_infantry moved from Egypt to Ethiopia
            1 armour moved from Alexandria to 98 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Alexandria to 98 Sea Zone
            1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 98 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 76 Sea Zone to Ethiopia
            1 armour moved from 76 Sea Zone to Ethiopia

Combat - British
            Battle in 95 Sea Zone
                British attack with 1 bomber, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber
                Italians defend with 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 1 submarine and 1 transport
                1 submarine owned by the Italians Submerged
                British win with 1 bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is -18
                Casualties for British: 1 cruiser, 1 fighter, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber
                Casualties for Italians: 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Battle in 96 Sea Zone
                British attack with 1 cruiser and 1 fighter
                Italians defend with 1 destroyer and 1 transport
                British win with 1 cruiser remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
                Casualties for British: 1 fighter
                Casualties for Italians: 1 destroyer and 1 transport
            Battle in Ethiopia
                British attack with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                Italians defend with 1 artillery and 2 infantry
                British win, taking Ethiopia from Italians with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 3 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 10
                Casualties for Italians: 1 artillery and 2 infantry

Non Combat Move - British
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by British from 95 Sea Zone: 1 bomber
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Italians from Southern Italy: 2 fighters
            EDIT: Adding units owned by British to 95 Sea Zone: 1 cruiser
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Italians from 95 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Adding units owned by British to 95 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 carrier and 1 destroyer moved from 98 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 battleship and 1 cruiser moved from 110 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            1 battleship moved from 111 Sea Zone to 104 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Ontario to Quebec
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Alexandria to Egypt
            1 destroyer moved from 39 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from West India to Eastern Persia
                  British take Eastern Persia from Neutral_Allies
            1 battleship moved from 37 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
            3 infantry moved from Malaya to Shan State
            2 infantry moved from Burma to India
            1 fighter moved from India to British Somaliland
            1 tactical_bomber moved from India to British Somaliland
            1 fighter moved from Burma to India
            1 destroyer moved from 71 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone
            2 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to Rhodesia
            2 infantry moved from Scotland to United Kingdom
            1 aaGun moved from Scotland to United Kingdom
            1 fighter moved from Scotland to United Kingdom

Place Units - British
            3 infantry placed in Union of South Africa
            7 infantry placed in United Kingdom

Turn Complete - British
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 1
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 106 Sea Zone. Rolls: 5,4,4,5
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 109 Sea Zone. Rolls: 5,1
            British collect 28 PUs (1 lost to blockades); end with 28 PUs total
            Objective British 1 Original: British met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 33 PUs

Place Units - UK_Pacific
            2 artilleries and 3 infantry placed in India

Turn Complete - UK_Pacific
            UK_Pacific collect 17 PUs; end with 17 PUs total
            Some Units in India change ownership: 2 artilleries and 3 infantry
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Adding units owned by British to 92 Sea Zone: 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

[arathorn]

I made a mistake, and I am your mercy.

First I had planned to buy a dd (as can be seen in the map), attack in 95, and place it there, and follow up with German air on G1.

But then I changed my mind, and I attacked Egypt instead. When I decided to not leave the bb and cruiser in 95, I decided to instead buy a tank and a mech, but I forgot to restart the map I was working on and change my buy. So I you’re ok with it, I’ll edit it in the change of purchase, as I clearly didn’t want to leave a dd all by itself for you to just “chop up” :)

Let me know if you’re not cool with it, and I’ll put the dd back.