Play the board and the allied moves and the outcome of R1; however, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that since Alpha 3, I’m 100% sea lion – my failed attempt was with 12 transports, so I might not go for it anymore when I don’t take Normandy. There was another game where I didn’t take Paris, and would have gone Italian-heavy-Barbarossa but we stopped playing.
Certainly with the new set up, if I fail to knock out 106, and I lose planes somewhere, and if the allies are preparing a strong sea lion counter, I might just might be persuaded not to go for it.
The problem is - until I’m actually beaten in a game where I take London, I feel like I need to keep going for it.