• Cruisers and other naval units SHOULD NOT get the same abilities as AA guns

    In terms of the game they may have similar rules, but really its basic AA defense that all naval units have specifically against planes as opposed to surface ships or subs and this total aggregate effort is being assumed to go to cruisers which more than any other unit are specialized for this task than other units.

    I can see separate AA roles for ships

    The game features specific ASW rules when planes are attacking a destroyer or when a sub gets its first strike bonus depending on destroyers around or not. This is no different from that kind of “tactical” rule.

    But really its a house rule and we should stay on topic with techs.


  • Timerover51,
    I agree, Cruisers should not have the SAME abilities as AA guns.  That’s why I limited the AA shot to 1 per Cruiser, with a maximun number of shots equal to the number of attacking air units, with the attacker chhoosing the casualties.

    Sorry for being off-topic, but when I first posted in this thread, I was trying to find out what others feel about the Radar tech.  I feel that it is too weak as is.

    What do y’all think?  Radar is too weak?  Too powerful?  Just right?


  • 1 wouldnt be bad get back to topic!


  • That’s why I limited the AA shot to 1 per Cruiser, with a maximun number of shots equal to the number of attacking air units

    Thats what i said as well. look at the aa50 house rules…just like AA gun with one shot at start of combat one per plane. thats it.


  • cruiser aa guns would make them more valuable but i fea that the only reason destroyers are 8 is for italy ohoh


  • No, dd are 2/2 surface ships who can defend trannies from aircraft. Their cost is OK


  • destrpyers do not need anytihng else but 2/2 8ipcs perfect cost italy will use them alot! and a few subs a ha


  • An analysis of tech Heavy Bomber tech:

    Each tech roll gives a 16.7% chance of scoring a tech.  But added rolls are not cumulative but rather diminishing.

    The math goes as follows:
                                                              16.7% = 1 tech roll.
       16.7 + (16.7 x .833 (which is 1 - .167) = 30.6% = 2 tech rolls.
       30.6 + (16.7 x .694 (which is 1 - .306) = 42.2% = 3 tech rolls
       42.2 + (16.7 x .578 (which is 1 - .422) = 51.9% = 4 tech rolls
       51.9 + (16.7 x .481 (which is 1 - .519) = 59.9% = 5 tech rolls
       59.9 + (16.7 x .411 (which is 1 - .599) = 66.6% = 6 tech rolls
       66.6 + (16.7 x .334 (which is 1 - .666) = 72.1% = 7 tech rolls

    Multiply this % by .167 to determine you chances of getting a single specific tech (like heavy bombers).
       Multiply by .333, .5, .666 and .833 for your chances of getting one tech in 2, 3, 4 or 5 techs respectively.

    So for instance, if you make 7 tech rolls you have a 72.1 x .167 (or 12%) chance of getting heavy bombers.

    Now if we can determine the IPC value of Heavy Bombers vs.we can a make cost analysis.  Since heavy bombers attack twice, their cost is best compared to simply buying a second bomber…

    Heavy bombers cannot undertake separate missions, roll two ones or take two hits on defense.  But if we are just comparing their SBR capacity: heavy bombers take neither an extra AA gun hit nor do they offer a second target, compared to a second bomber.  Since AA guns have less than a 50% chance of hitting, this makes heavy bombers worse by (16.7% - 16.7%) or 2 IPCs.  Thus heavy bomb tech is worth 10 per existing bomber

    So given the choice with 36 IPCs to buy 3 bombers or 5 tech rolls what is the proper choice?  Three bombers is worth exactly 36.  But as we’ve seen 7 tech rolls only has a 12% chance per turn to get heavy bombers.  (Granted it has a 72% chance per turn to get some tech, but 35 for any OTHER tech is ludicrous).

    Even if we already have 10 bombers on the board and we get a tech this turn, we still only have a 16.7% of heavy bombers.  So the bombers are worth 36 and the tech is worth 16.7 IPCs at most.

    I hope this conclusively proves that any money invested into securing a specific tech in a tournament length game (or probably even a marathon game) is wasted.

    As an aside this means that rolling to get one of the two SBR mitigation techs (AA guns and Factory upgrade) isn’t really a strong option either.

    Finally, it is worth noting that any financial commitment to SBR precludes at least SOME lack involvement in the traditional theaters of combat.  This has the effect of letting the Axis gain money through more easily achieved national objectives and marginal IPC territories (such as those found in Africa).  It also denies the allies (mostly England) progressively more IPCs.  It is for this reason that I think SBRs, while definitely a sound strategy, appear to be more game-breaking than perhaps they really are.


  • I just saw a mistake i have been making action sequence 7 i put as 1 lol i laugh lol i had no idea now ill have to start going the opposite way my friends and me will be working on new strats great!

    Anyways if i was usa heavy bombers and time to get japan and send 2 inf. from a transport to great brtian for defense!
    U.s.a. needs bombers and (i always go for pacific house rules add soem flavour man)


  • Turg I like your math but I look at it slightly differently

    Also while a bomber costs 12, it does 1/60+5/6(3.5) SBR a turn = 2.92 IPC a turn that means the opportunity cost of delaying a bomber purchase by 1 turn is 2.92 IPC that you could of taken away from your enemy, while gaining 12/IPC a turn income for yourself.  The damage done by a SBR with the tech is 1/60+5/6(2+12)/2 =5.83, which is a gain of 2.92 IPC/turn.

    So lets say i delay 5 bomber purchases for 1 turn each, to buy 2 tech dice. I could of had 5 more bomber turns, which i could of done 2.92 damage x 5. HVY bombers would  make up the difference in 1 turn, by doing on avg 5.83 dmg  a turn, if i had 5 bombers.

    @General:

    Now if we can determine the IPC value of Heavy Bombers vs.we can a make cost analysis.  Since heavy bombers attack twice, their cost is best compared to simply buying a second bomber…

    Heavy bombers cannot undertake separate missions, roll two ones or take two hits on defense.  But if we are just comparing their SBR capacity: heavy bombers take neither an extra AA gun hit nor do they offer a second target, compared to a second bomber.  Since AA guns have less than a 50% chance of hitting, this makes heavy bombers worse by (16.7% - 16.7%) or 2 IPCs.  Thus heavy bomb tech is worth 10 per existing bomber

    So given the choice with 36 IPCs to buy 3 bombers or 5 tech rolls what is the proper choice?  Three bombers is worth exactly 36.  But as we’ve seen 7 tech rolls only has a 12% chance per turn to get heavy bombers.  (Granted it has a 72% chance per turn to get some tech, but 35 for any OTHER tech is ludicrous).

    Because there is no way to dig in vs bombers besides tech, there is no way brace for an attack. Waiting to a turn to build a bomber, does not allow the opponent to build up defenses, like you can for sea and land battles. Tech purchases have value of time bonus, since they stick around if you miss.

    1 tech rolls = 1- (5/6) =  1/6 =  16.67% 
    2 tech rolls = 1- (5/65/6) =   11/36 =30.55%
    3 tech rolls = 1- (5/6
    5/6*5/6) =  42.12%
    4 tech rolls =  1- (5/6)^4  =  51.7%
    6 tech rolls = 1 -(5/6)^6 = 66.5%
    8 tech rolls = 1-(5/6)^8 = 76.7%
    9 tech rolls = 1-(5/6)^9 = 80.6%

    Now Since die are carried over from turn to turn… They have a cumulative effect… notice the pattern bellow:

    1 tech roll change to hit in less than
    1 turn : 16.67 …  less than 2 ( 1/6+5/61/6) = 30.5%  less than 3 (1/6+1/65/6+5/65/61/6) = 42.1%

    2 tech roll change to hit in less than
    1 turn : 30.55%  less than 2 (11/36+ 25/3611/36) =  51.7% less than 3 ( 11/36+25/3611/36+25/3625/3611/36) = 66.5%

    Rolling 2 twice and hitting in 1 turn is just as probable as rolling 1 twice and hitting in at least one of the two turns. This works with any dice combination, rolling 8 dice in turn has the same chance as 4 over 2, or 2 dice over 4 turns.

    I think the optimal way to play this strategy is to buy 1 bomber a turn. If you hit a tech that turn buy 2 tech dice instead. Hitting Bombers alone will pull you ahead under my strategy, if you have enough bombers still alive to take advantage of it.


  • DPDLC: Thanks for the response.  You seem better at odds than I am   :-P  And yes I know that the same number of dice offer the same chance to roll a tech whether they happen at once or over turns.

    I like your strategy, but I don’t think it was on point as a response to my post.  I was arguing against the feasibility of strategies for trying to roll heavy tech while your strategy is far more cost-effective and thus better, but it does not illustrate an example of breaking the game with heavy bombers.  Perhaps you weren’t really disagreeing with me.  I couldn’t tell by the tone of your post.   :-)

    I agree that techs are neat and spending at least 5 or so is highly worthwhile for most nations.  And of course sometimes someone will get heavy bombers quite early, giving their opponents a very rough time of it.

    But the only way to guarantee heavy bomb tech early is to waste insane levels of IPCS

    _Example: America spends 10 IPCs per turn on tech giving them 12 rolls by each third turn.  For the sake of argument we’ll say that on they’re a tad lucky and on each 3rd turn they get a tech.  On which turn do they you get the heavy bombers?  16% on turn 3.  33% by turn 6. 49% by turn 9.  74% by turn 12.  Your chance does not exceed 50% until turn 12 but with a spot of luck you might have them turn 9.  There’s a good chance one side has won (or cannot be stopped from winning) by turn 9.  So unless you get lucky or the game goes into super over-time you’re paying a fortune for techs that are not worth the investment or won’t come into play soon enough to see the desired effect.
     _


  • @General:

    _Example: America spends 10 IPCs per turn on tech giving them 12 rolls by each third turn.  For the sake of argument we’ll say that on they’re a tad lucky and on each 3rd turn they get a tech.  On which turn do they you get the heavy bombers?  16% on turn 3.  33% by turn 6. 49% by turn 9.  74% by turn 12.  Your chance does not exceed 50% until turn 12 but with a spot of luck you might have them turn 9.  There’s a good chance one side has won (or cannot be stopped from winning) by turn 9.  So unless you get lucky or the game goes into super over-time you’re paying a fortune for techs that are not worth the investment or won’t come into play soon enough to see the desired effect.
     _

    12 rolls to get a tech is a tad lucky?  Spending 10 IPCs on techs per turn will average you a tech much closer to once every 2 turns than once every 3 (it might average exactly once/2turns, have to think about it).  And with techs working the way they do in AA50 you don’t have to worry about multiple tech hits in a single turn being wasted the way they were in Revised.  So, every now and then you will get 2 or more techs when you roll multiple die.  I believe that’s how it works anyway, it would make much more sense than the alternative.  But, just to go flat averages with that, it would be turn 2 = tech1, turn 4 = tech2, turn 6 = tech3, turn 8 = tech4, turn 10 = tech5, turn 12 = tech6.

    The probability that you get heavy bombers BY one of these tech rolls would be:
    tech1 = (1/6) = 16.67%
    tech2 = (1/6)+(5/61/5) = 33.33%
    tech3 = (1/6)+(5/6
    1/5)+(5/64/51/4) = 50%
    and so on…tech4 = 66.67%, tech5 = 83.33%, tech6 = 100%.

    Now, obviously you can’t just say there’s a 1/6 chance of having the tech by turn 2 because of the 1/6 chance to get it on your first tech.  Nor can you say you will have half of the techs by turn 6.  But on AVERAGE you will have half of the techs (3) after turn 6’s roll, not 1/3 of the techs (2).  That’s how I see the math at least.  And I’m not trying to argue that US SHOULD go tech-crazy in the hopes for heavy bombers.  Simply that they should hit techs more often than in your example, and that their chance of hitting heavy bombers specifically is slightly different than your numbers.

    And by the way there is a slight flaw in how you guys were looking for the probability to hit a specific tech by a specific roll.  That is, you weren’t taking into consideration the chances that you would get multiple tech hits by a certain roll.  You were only figuring the probability to get at least one tech hit by a certain roll.  If you were to draw your formulas out to infinite rolls you’d end up with a 100% chance to get ONE tech, and still only a 1/6 chance to get a specific tech.

    To figure out the precise chance of getting heavy bombers with a specific number of rolls, I think you would have to find the odds of hitting EXACTLY one tech in those given rolls (multiplied by 1/6 to get the specific tech), then the odds of hitting EXACTLY two techs (multiplied by 1/3), then three techs (*.5), four techs (*2/3), five techs (*5/6), and six techs.  Add all those odds together and that would be the chance you get heavy bombers after a specific number of rolls.

    EDIT: As an example of what I was saying at the end of my post, there is a 1/6 (16.67%) chance to get heavy bombers (or any specific tech) by your 6th roll, contrary to Turgidson’s 12% by roll #7.  This is because, while there is only a 66.51% chance to get at least one tech (which would result in an 11.1% chance to hit a spec. tech) a lot of that percentage is comprised of multiple hits.  More boring math…to get the specific tech:

    Probability of getting the exact # of hits * Probability of hitting the specific tech after getting that # of hits

    1 hit = 40.2% * (1/6) … + 2 hits = 20.1% * (1/3) … + 3 hits = 5.36% * (1/2) … + 4 hits = .8% * (2/3) …rest is almost negligible

    6.7% + 6.7% + 2.68% + .54% + .054% = 16.7%


  • Okay.  I did not know that, so yeah a lot of my previous post was wrong.  That means that it will be more like 2.5 turns/tech if you spend a set 10 IPC/turn, I think.

    In Classic you could get more than 1 tech/turn right?  I was assuming it would work the same way.


  • Does tech take effect as soon as you mark it? This gives a 1 turn advantage since purchased units can only be used next turn, while tech can be used instantly…

    @Craig:

    Phase 1: Research & Development
    Note: This is an optional rule- players should decide whether or not this phase will be included in their game.

    Research & Development Sequence
    1. Buy researcher tokens
    2. Roll research dice
    3. Roll breakthrough die
    4. Mark development


  • @Craig:

    Step 4: Mark Development
    If your research was successful, place one of your national control markers inside the appropriate advancement box on the research & development chart.  Your development becomes effective immediately.

    Looks like yes.


  • roll “1” darnit didn’t get technology p:


  • Even assuming your adjusted math of a tech every 2.5 turns is correct and my estimated 3 turns is wrong (once again assuming a fixed 10 ipcs on tech rolls per turn), you still only have better than a 50% chance of getting heavy bomber tech on your 3rd successful tech or (7-8th turn).

    Assuming you get heavy bomber tech on turn 7, there are still four possible problems here…

    1. Over the long run of the game you are spending massive IPCs to obtain a single tech that could elude you.  Tech rolls are never a sure thing.  Even if you get the tech on turn 7, the game might be over already.

    2. UK/USA could be inflicting max damage on every complex in range already.

    3. By turn 6 you could have instead just bough 5 more bombers doing a total of 10 (4 + 3 + 2 +1) bombing runs before you ever see heavy bombers.


  • Yep.  Like I said, I wasn’t trying to argue in favor of a heavy bomber '“strat”, just trying to get a bit more accurate numbers since the difference between 2 turns/tech and 3 turns/tech is pretty significant.  But because I was working off faulty assumptions, the difference is far less significant than I thought.  With the system the way it is, rolling less dice offers you more techs per IPC investment AND per roll, which works against tech-heavy builds.


  • Meh! im not a bombing person


  • Bombing is ok, but if you must be persistant. But that assumes you are willing to keep spending money on it, which depending may not be an option.

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