I just saw a mistake i have been making action sequence 7 i put as 1 lol i laugh lol i had no idea now ill have to start going the opposite way my friends and me will be working on new strats great!
Anyways if i was usa heavy bombers and time to get japan and send 2 inf. from a transport to great brtian for defense!
U.s.a. needs bombers and (i always go for pacific house rules add soem flavour man)
Turg I like your math but I look at it slightly differently
Also while a bomber costs 12, it does 1/60+5/6(3.5) SBR a turn = 2.92 IPC a turn that means the opportunity cost of delaying a bomber purchase by 1 turn is 2.92 IPC that you could of taken away from your enemy, while gaining 12/IPC a turn income for yourself. The damage done by a SBR with the tech is 1/60+5/6(2+12)/2 =5.83, which is a gain of 2.92 IPC/turn.
So lets say i delay 5 bomber purchases for 1 turn each, to buy 2 tech dice. I could of had 5 more bomber turns, which i could of done 2.92 damage x 5. HVY bombers would make up the difference in 1 turn, by doing on avg 5.83 dmg a turn, if i had 5 bombers.
Now if we can determine the IPC value of Heavy Bombers vs.we can a make cost analysis. Since heavy bombers attack twice, their cost is best compared to simply buying a second bomber…
Heavy bombers cannot undertake separate missions, roll two ones or take two hits on defense. But if we are just comparing their SBR capacity: heavy bombers take neither an extra AA gun hit nor do they offer a second target, compared to a second bomber. Since AA guns have less than a 50% chance of hitting, this makes heavy bombers worse by (16.7% - 16.7%) or 2 IPCs. Thus heavy bomb tech is worth 10 per existing bomber
So given the choice with 36 IPCs to buy 3 bombers or 5 tech rolls what is the proper choice? Three bombers is worth exactly 36. But as we’ve seen 7 tech rolls only has a 12% chance per turn to get heavy bombers. (Granted it has a 72% chance per turn to get some tech, but 35 for any OTHER tech is ludicrous).
Because there is no way to dig in vs bombers besides tech, there is no way brace for an attack. Waiting to a turn to build a bomber, does not allow the opponent to build up defenses, like you can for sea and land battles. Tech purchases have value of time bonus, since they stick around if you miss.
1 tech rolls = 1- (5/6) = 1/6 = 16.67%
2 tech rolls = 1- (5/65/6) = 11/36 =30.55%
3 tech rolls = 1- (5/65/6*5/6) = 42.12%
4 tech rolls = 1- (5/6)^4 = 51.7%
6 tech rolls = 1 -(5/6)^6 = 66.5%
8 tech rolls = 1-(5/6)^8 = 76.7%
9 tech rolls = 1-(5/6)^9 = 80.6%
Now Since die are carried over from turn to turn… They have a cumulative effect… notice the pattern bellow:
1 tech roll change to hit in less than
1 turn : 16.67 … less than 2 ( 1/6+5/61/6) = 30.5% less than 3 (1/6+1/65/6+5/65/61/6) = 42.1%
2 tech roll change to hit in less than
1 turn : 30.55% less than 2 (11/36+ 25/3611/36) = 51.7% less than 3 ( 11/36+25/3611/36+25/3625/3611/36) = 66.5%
Rolling 2 twice and hitting in 1 turn is just as probable as rolling 1 twice and hitting in at least one of the two turns. This works with any dice combination, rolling 8 dice in turn has the same chance as 4 over 2, or 2 dice over 4 turns.
I think the optimal way to play this strategy is to buy 1 bomber a turn. If you hit a tech that turn buy 2 tech dice instead. Hitting Bombers alone will pull you ahead under my strategy, if you have enough bombers still alive to take advantage of it.
DPDLC: Thanks for the response. You seem better at odds than I am :-P And yes I know that the same number of dice offer the same chance to roll a tech whether they happen at once or over turns.
I like your strategy, but I don’t think it was on point as a response to my post. I was arguing against the feasibility of strategies for trying to roll heavy tech while your strategy is far more cost-effective and thus better, but it does not illustrate an example of breaking the game with heavy bombers. Perhaps you weren’t really disagreeing with me. I couldn’t tell by the tone of your post. :-)
I agree that techs are neat and spending at least 5 or so is highly worthwhile for most nations. And of course sometimes someone will get heavy bombers quite early, giving their opponents a very rough time of it.
But the only way to guarantee heavy bomb tech early is to waste insane levels of IPCS
_Example: America spends 10 IPCs per turn on tech giving them 12 rolls by each third turn. For the sake of argument we’ll say that on they’re a tad lucky and on each 3rd turn they get a tech. On which turn do they you get the heavy bombers? 16% on turn 3. 33% by turn 6. 49% by turn 9. 74% by turn 12. Your chance does not exceed 50% until turn 12 but with a spot of luck you might have them turn 9. There’s a good chance one side has won (or cannot be stopped from winning) by turn 9. So unless you get lucky or the game goes into super over-time you’re paying a fortune for techs that are not worth the investment or won’t come into play soon enough to see the desired effect.
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_Example: America spends 10 IPCs per turn on tech giving them 12 rolls by each third turn. For the sake of argument we’ll say that on they’re a tad lucky and on each 3rd turn they get a tech. On which turn do they you get the heavy bombers? 16% on turn 3. 33% by turn 6. 49% by turn 9. 74% by turn 12. Your chance does not exceed 50% until turn 12 but with a spot of luck you might have them turn 9. There’s a good chance one side has won (or cannot be stopped from winning) by turn 9. So unless you get lucky or the game goes into super over-time you’re paying a fortune for techs that are not worth the investment or won’t come into play soon enough to see the desired effect.
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12 rolls to get a tech is a tad lucky? Spending 10 IPCs on techs per turn will average you a tech much closer to once every 2 turns than once every 3 (it might average exactly once/2turns, have to think about it). And with techs working the way they do in AA50 you don’t have to worry about multiple tech hits in a single turn being wasted the way they were in Revised. So, every now and then you will get 2 or more techs when you roll multiple die. I believe that’s how it works anyway, it would make much more sense than the alternative. But, just to go flat averages with that, it would be turn 2 = tech1, turn 4 = tech2, turn 6 = tech3, turn 8 = tech4, turn 10 = tech5, turn 12 = tech6.
The probability that you get heavy bombers BY one of these tech rolls would be:
tech1 = (1/6) = 16.67%
tech2 = (1/6)+(5/61/5) = 33.33%
tech3 = (1/6)+(5/61/5)+(5/64/51/4) = 50%
and so on…tech4 = 66.67%, tech5 = 83.33%, tech6 = 100%.
Now, obviously you can’t just say there’s a 1/6 chance of having the tech by turn 2 because of the 1/6 chance to get it on your first tech. Nor can you say you will have half of the techs by turn 6. But on AVERAGE you will have half of the techs (3) after turn 6’s roll, not 1/3 of the techs (2). That’s how I see the math at least. And I’m not trying to argue that US SHOULD go tech-crazy in the hopes for heavy bombers. Simply that they should hit techs more often than in your example, and that their chance of hitting heavy bombers specifically is slightly different than your numbers.
And by the way there is a slight flaw in how you guys were looking for the probability to hit a specific tech by a specific roll. That is, you weren’t taking into consideration the chances that you would get multiple tech hits by a certain roll. You were only figuring the probability to get at least one tech hit by a certain roll. If you were to draw your formulas out to infinite rolls you’d end up with a 100% chance to get ONE tech, and still only a 1/6 chance to get a specific tech.
To figure out the precise chance of getting heavy bombers with a specific number of rolls, I think you would have to find the odds of hitting EXACTLY one tech in those given rolls (multiplied by 1/6 to get the specific tech), then the odds of hitting EXACTLY two techs (multiplied by 1/3), then three techs (*.5), four techs (*2/3), five techs (*5/6), and six techs. Add all those odds together and that would be the chance you get heavy bombers after a specific number of rolls.
EDIT: As an example of what I was saying at the end of my post, there is a 1/6 (16.67%) chance to get heavy bombers (or any specific tech) by your 6th roll, contrary to Turgidson’s 12% by roll #7. This is because, while there is only a 66.51% chance to get at least one tech (which would result in an 11.1% chance to hit a spec. tech) a lot of that percentage is comprised of multiple hits. More boring math…to get the specific tech:
Probability of getting the exact # of hits * Probability of hitting the specific tech after getting that # of hits
1 hit = 40.2% * (1/6) … + 2 hits = 20.1% * (1/3) … + 3 hits = 5.36% * (1/2) … + 4 hits = .8% * (2/3) …rest is almost negligible
6.7% + 6.7% + 2.68% + .54% + .054% = 16.7%
Okay. I did not know that, so yeah a lot of my previous post was wrong. That means that it will be more like 2.5 turns/tech if you spend a set 10 IPC/turn, I think.
In Classic you could get more than 1 tech/turn right? I was assuming it would work the same way.
Does tech take effect as soon as you mark it? This gives a 1 turn advantage since purchased units can only be used next turn, while tech can be used instantly…
@Craig:
Phase 1: Research & Development
Note: This is an optional rule- players should decide whether or not this phase will be included in their game.Research & Development Sequence
1. Buy researcher tokens
2. Roll research dice
3. Roll breakthrough die
4. Mark development
@Craig:
Step 4: Mark Development
If your research was successful, place one of your national control markers inside the appropriate advancement box on the research & development chart. Your development becomes effective immediately.
Looks like yes.
roll “1” darnit didn’t get technology p:
Even assuming your adjusted math of a tech every 2.5 turns is correct and my estimated 3 turns is wrong (once again assuming a fixed 10 ipcs on tech rolls per turn), you still only have better than a 50% chance of getting heavy bomber tech on your 3rd successful tech or (7-8th turn).
Assuming you get heavy bomber tech on turn 7, there are still four possible problems here…
1. Over the long run of the game you are spending massive IPCs to obtain a single tech that could elude you. Tech rolls are never a sure thing. Even if you get the tech on turn 7, the game might be over already.
2. UK/USA could be inflicting max damage on every complex in range already.
3. By turn 6 you could have instead just bough 5 more bombers doing a total of 10 (4 + 3 + 2 +1) bombing runs before you ever see heavy bombers.
Yep. Like I said, I wasn’t trying to argue in favor of a heavy bomber '“strat”, just trying to get a bit more accurate numbers since the difference between 2 turns/tech and 3 turns/tech is pretty significant. But because I was working off faulty assumptions, the difference is far less significant than I thought. With the system the way it is, rolling less dice offers you more techs per IPC investment AND per roll, which works against tech-heavy builds.
Meh! im not a bombing person
Bombing is ok, but if you must be persistant. But that assumes you are willing to keep spending money on it, which depending may not be an option.
THe trick to bombing is to be in the better spot example if germany has most of russia they can finish it or take a few bombers and explode the brits so taht way both allies are crusshed with “fear” Me i skip bombing and worry about landing and such do not kid me wrong bombers i start with i win with them or lose with them becausei send them with fights (1st turn get income thats what i do) 1 bomber and my fighter 's and many inf. v lets say 3 tanks then i have a totaly force of 7+ aircraft and inf are the key to victory for russia (artillery as well)
I just come to think that, if heavybombers and rockets were removed from AA50, then there’s a small possibillity that it could be fun playing AA50 with techs…
After trying AA50, it seems like the reduced cost of bmrs probably isnt a gamebreaker after all, but combine 12 ipc bmrs + rockets + HB :roll:
Techs are random. Do you really fear a rockets + hb combo? 1 of 36 chances of getting both with only 10 ipcs in 2 turns. Not a great strat :-P Allied massive bombing strat is preventing by Godzilla Japan attacking Alaska, and Axis massive bomb strat is prevented by starting superior income of Allies. I fear more buggy sparring China, nerfed logistics for USA at Pacific and powered up pokemon Japan
Even if the chance of getting either rockets or HB is only 1/12(?) after hitting @6(?), you never know when this is going to occure, so for my part it means that tech is a gamebreaker because of 2 out of 12 techs is going to ruin the game I’m playing, assuming tech is on. But it’s really sad because the only 2 techs that have nothing to do with genuine strats is rockets and HB, all other techs could be fun and are not gamebreakers. It’s not only about one specific tech is going to shift the balance of the game, point is that
10 techs is about strats, 2 techs is just rolling some dice. To use most of the 12 techs you must also know how to use them, you’re not getting automatic advantage by just being lucky. There are actually several techs that seems ok (as of now). After taking a look at the fact sheet, I think all other techs are ok, just not rockets and HB.
The chance increases every turn!
Anyways more people will buy bombers.
The only time that i use bombers for is when iuse there 4attack.
example: im russia and i send my 11 bomber with 4 inf. lose 2 inf. 2 inf. stay send bomber back.
I use my bomber as a tricky savior of my army not bombing i have found it works better then buying them for bombing unless you do not got anything better to do!
New to this forum, but been reading here for a little while now.
Of course we are not sure of how strong heavy bombers will actually be in the game yet but with hb your average “gain” from a single sb raid will be about (7*5)/6-(12/6) IPCs or something like 3,8 IPCs in net gain on average. Of course the figure gets a little more balanced if the opposition has improved production or radar, and if he has both it won’t be wise to bomb him at all.
There might be a big problem if one country gets hb during the first rounds of play, and it is this coincidental situation that bothers me, as others have previously mentioned, the game should be about strategy, not plain luck.
Welcome!
I agree the game should be more about strategy, but you don’t have to play with tech if you don’t want to. The group that I play with likes to play with tech, and I believe that it can make the game mnore fun.
@Subotai:
Even if the chance of getting either rockets or HB is only 1/12(?) after hitting @6(?), you never know when this is going to occure, so for my part it means that tech is a gamebreaker because of 2 out of 12 techs is going to ruin the game I’m playing, assuming tech is on. But it’s really sad because the only 2 techs that have nothing to do with genuine strats is rockets and HB, all other techs could be fun and are not gamebreakers. It’s not only about one specific tech is going to shift the balance of the game, point is that
10 techs is about strats, 2 techs is just rolling some dice. To use most of the 12 techs you must also know how to use them, you’re not getting automatic advantage by just being lucky. There are actually several techs that seems ok (as of now). After taking a look at the fact sheet, I think all other techs are ok, just not rockets and HB.
I think the best would be reducing max damage to IC to its IPC value, not allowing “negative production”. Thus, Germany could get 10 points of damage, not 20 as now, and minor ICs would not be so utterly damaged. This would solve rockets. For HB, make the bomber a 5/2 unit instead of two dices stuff, and give a +1 to strat bombing.
