Hello Grognards.

I was playing a game of A&A Anniversary edition v3 on Triple A when my opponent hit me with a tactic I had not seen before.

R1: Buy 11 infantry
Attack Finland with two inf and 4 planes.

G1: Buy 4 bombers.

Troops in Norway +4 more Transported from Germany attack Finland.
Everything able attacks Novgorod.
All tanks not able to attack Novgorod, move into Baltic States. 
Two inf and two tanks into Western Poland.
All Air Force land in Baltic States.
All available subs are move to the sea zone above Eastern Germany.
All surface navy into the sea zone bordering Leningrad.

E1: I could see the writing on the wall, so I built surface navy.

Landed all Air Force into Leningrad.

Other countries: does not matter.

R2: Built three planes and some inf

No attacks.
Move several infantry and all planes and tanks into Leningrad.

G2: Bough all inf since my purchase with England was to pressure him.

All units in Finland and Novgorod attack Leningrad.
All Aiirforce (8 Fighters and 6 bombers) attack Leningrad.
All tanks in Baltic State attack Leningrad
Two inf and two tanks in Western Poland are transported into Leningrad

…Average rolls for Germany and slightly bad rolls for Russia.
…Leningrad falls with German troops remaining (5 inf, 3 arty, 8 tanks, 6 planes, 6 bombers).

In retrospect I might have attacked the surface navy with my English planes, but it would not have dropped Germany’s chances of winning by to less than 90% (98% chance of success for Germany without attacking surface navy)

What do I do to stop this?  Help!

The error you make is that you don’t make any Russian attacks on R1… At least one should always be possible on normal dice and with some luck even two. Russia is not in such a bad shape as it looks, with all the infantry she can afford to make riskier attacks than you normally would.  wink

Hmm, not so sure about this Driel310.

If Germans have tank and arty in Karelia, 3 infantry and 1 arty in baltic states and 6 tanks and two infantry in East Poland where does Russia attack?

I think Artillery or planes might be better for Russia than tanks.  As long as Artillery has infantry to go with it, it adds as much attack power as a tank and does it 20% cheaper.  Planes give Russia some “teeth” for hitting territories that you know won’t hold through to the next German turn.

After playing AA50 ('41 scenario) twice it always seems that the game is decided by the highly effective “race to Moscow”.  I would majorly appreciate any help I can get for holding out with the Russians.

Here’s how the second game went (and the first game went pretty much the same)

G1:  builds all tanks.  Take East Poland, Baltic States and Karelia.  Most Tanks are in East Poland so they are in range to Blitz into Moscow or Caucuses. There was enough left in each location that an attack against them would be suicide.

R1: Build three tanks and five INF.  No attacks.

I1: Take Ukraine with a blitzing tank from Balkans and amphibious assault from Italy.  Marched the two INF in Balkans to Bulgaria/Romania so that you may also do some amphibious next turn.

G2: Build 10 tanks.  Attacked Belorussia and Eastern Ukraine with just enough INF and planes to have one or two infantry remaining after taking the zone (IE creating blitz lanes).  13 tanks are in East Poland now.

R2: Took back Ukraine, East Ukraine and Belorusia to prevent a blitz.

I2: Weaken Ukraine.

G3:  Build 10 tanks.  Go into Belorussia with 13 tanks and two INF.  10 more tanks are in East Poland.

R3: Cannot attack 13 tanks and two Inf with the tanks in Caucuses and the units in Russia combined.  Pooling all my units plus a build if 5 tanks and a plane in Russia will not hold against the 2 INF 23 tanks and 3 Planes Germany will attack with next turn.  -Concede-

Where were England, America and Japan during this battle?

England built a fleet but never had enough to kill my west troops.  He attacked an empty Northwestern Europe on E1.  I emptied France to take back Northwestern Europe and then did the reverse when he took France.

Japan and America fought over the Pacific.  While the game is way better than previous incarnations of A&A, I feel it is centered to much on Germany’s eastern front.  Seems to me that if the game is going to end by G3 It really doesn’t matter what America or Japan do.

Please tell me how Russia can hold?

In classic, while playing the Axis I got three out of 3 hits with my AA gun on American bombers doing an SBR.  thats 216 to 1.  Pretty darn lucky.

Title: How many tanks are you attacking with?

Date: December 27 2008

Special rules: Used both NO and Tech.

Victor: Axis by concession at the end of G3.

Game length: 5 hours.

Bias: Slight Axis.  It was the first game for my friend and I both veterans of Classic since the 80s.  My friend is better at picking up new games than I am, but we both seemed to have an equal share of luck and mistakes.

Description:

Axis went more heavily after national objectives and denying mine while I tried to gain time and make him lose some.  His strategy was more realized than mine which is why he won.  Here’s a breakdown of the action.

G1: Destroyed half of the English navy, (my units off the coasts of spain and east canada survived the rest went to the bottom.  He also took Baltic and East Poland very convincingly (zero defensive his) though his naval assault on Karelia failed, though he did escape with 1 tank and his air force.  He also took Gibraltar to help Italy with its NO.

Not sure taking Gibraltar was a good move since once Egypt falls Trans-Jordan cannot stand.

R1: I calculated my odds of retaking my lost territories but since Karelia was weakened the odds would have favored my opponent.  So I just built some tanks and men and attacked a German sub which submerged after I missed the first time.

J1: Japan bought a trannie and two tech rolls and got long range aircraft (believe me this is a nightmare).  In addition to destroying my battleship at Pearl and the fleet in Philippines he was also able to reach the fleet in India and destroyed all those navies.  Curiously he seemed to play light on the mainland only attacking Kwangtung which held rather miraculously.  He was very aggressive in his island conquests leaving some transports undefended.  He took both East Indies and Borneo/Celebes but Pearl Harbor survived with a plane intact.

I thought Japan should have at least taken out the Chinese plane.

UK1: I built a navy of 2 cruisers, a destroyer and a transport.  My surviving navy along with my air force destroyed the two subs he used to take out my battleship.  This was a mistake, I left his navy in the baltic unmolested and it would come back to bite me later.  My tank in East Canada landed in Algeria via an amphibious assault and I reinforced Egypt with the guys in Trans-Jordan.  UK also used its Ausie navy to destroy a lone Japanese transport as well as taking back East Indies.  I also marched my troops from India to Burma to make Japan pay some attention to the mainland.

I1: Built two tanks.  Takes Algeria back for Germany.  Moves a tank to Ukraine. Moves two defenders into France.

A1: I built some subs and other navy on the west coast and a transport on the east coast.  I also took took Algeria.  In the pacific I picked off two more transports thanks to my bomber and my fighter in Pearl.  China took out his two Infantry defending Kiangsu and built 4 infantry.

I think America’s build was a mistake.  In Classic A&A you can simply delay a turn before you have a constant stream of people coming in from the Atlantic.  A&A50 is far to fast paced for that and it takes boats even longer.  Compared to classic you need either double the navy or choose not to land on Europe every other turn.   Next game its gonna be all bombers for America at least as far as commitment against Germany is concerned.

G2: Buys tanks only.  Takes Karelia, Belorusia and Eastern Ukraine.  He’s now in range to blitz Moscow with all the tanks he started with as well as his tanks built during G1.  Germany also attacks Egypt in an attempt to soften it up for Italy but ends up taking it with few losses.

R2: Buy two tanks and the rest men.  I fill two empty spaces with one INF so Germany cannot blitz into Moscow and re-take Archangelsk and Ukraine (essentially I have a anti-blitz zone of one or two INF in each space between Germany and my remaining two complexes.    In the East, I want Japan to attack Russia instead of China so I only leave 3 infantry in Buryatin along with the American bomber that had to land their after picking off the transport in Japan.

J2: Builds more transports and men.  Takes pearl harbor but instead of moving towards Australia and/or taking back East Indies he uses all of his navy to be able to take out Buryatin as well as the two Chinese Inf in Kiangsu.

UK2: I buy men, tanks and a transport.  I attack Burma with 3 men and an Artillery vs. his two guys and don’t get a single hit.  I withdraw with only my artillery remaining.  Feeling a need to put some pressure on Germany’s west front with how Russia is looking, I attack France with 3 Cruiser shouts, a bomber, two planes, two men a tank and an arty vs. his AA gun 6 INF a tank and an arty.  Luckily the AA misses but I get shredded killing getting two hits on the first turn to his 4 hits.  I pull back with only my air force remaining.   INF before he kills everything except for my air force.

I2: I forget what he buys, I think tanks and infantry.  He starts conquering Africa.  Uses his fighter to destroy the American transport in sea zone 12.

A2: My navy in west USA still isn’t strong enough to attack the Japanese at Pearl, so I build more navy and some air force.  At this point I was ready to concede but I wanted to see how things looked at the end of G3.

G3: Germany attacks the UK’s navy of 1 sub, 2 destroyer and 3 cruisers with 1 sub, 1 cruiser and three planes and wins with minimal losses.  At this point I officially conceded.  In the East front Germany would have taken Belorusia with 13 or 14 tanks and some infantry.  I couldn’t have attacked it and even will all my units in Moscow, I still would have fallen to those tanks on G4.

Shoot, in the 19th century we had one of the best education systems in the world.  Foreigners would come to small American towns and marvel at 16 year old children speaking Latin.

Even assuming your adjusted math of a tech every 2.5 turns is correct and my estimated 3 turns is wrong (once again assuming a fixed 10 ipcs on tech rolls per turn), you still only have better than a 50% chance of getting heavy bomber tech on your 3rd successful tech or (7-8th turn).

Assuming you get heavy bomber tech on turn 7, there are still four possible problems here…

1. Over the long run of the game you are spending massive IPCs to obtain a single tech that could elude you.  Tech rolls are never a sure thing.  Even if you get the tech on turn 7, the game might be over already.

2. UK/USA could be inflicting max damage on every complex in range already.

3. By turn 6 you could have instead just bough 5 more bombers doing a total of 10 (4 + 3 + 2 +1) bombing runs before you ever see heavy bombers.

DPDLC: Thanks for the response.  You seem better at odds than I am     And yes I know that the same number of dice offer the same chance to roll a tech whether they happen at once or over turns.

I like your strategy, but I don’t think it was on point as a response to my post.  I was arguing against the feasibility of strategies for trying to roll heavy tech while your strategy is far more cost-effective and thus better, but it does not illustrate an example of breaking the game with heavy bombers.  Perhaps you weren’t really disagreeing with me.  I couldn’t tell by the tone of your post.  

I agree that techs are neat and spending at least 5 or so is highly worthwhile for most nations.  And of course sometimes someone will get heavy bombers quite early, giving their opponents a very rough time of it.

But the only way to guarantee heavy bomb tech early is to waste insane levels of IPCS

_Example: America spends 10 IPCs per turn on tech giving them 12 rolls by each third turn.  For the sake of argument we’ll say that on they’re a tad lucky and on each 3rd turn they get a tech.  On which turn do they you get the heavy bombers?  16% on turn 3.  33% by turn 6. 49% by turn 9.  74% by turn 12.  Your chance does not exceed 50% until turn 12 but with a spot of luck you might have them turn 9.  There’s a good chance one side has won (or cannot be stopped from winning) by turn 9.  So unless you get lucky or the game goes into super over-time you’re paying a fortune for techs that are not worth the investment or won’t come into play soon enough to see the desired effect.
 _

An analysis of tech Heavy Bomber tech:

Each tech roll gives a 16.7% chance of scoring a tech.  But added rolls are not cumulative but rather diminishing.

The math goes as follows:
                                                          16.7% = 1 tech roll.
   16.7 + (16.7 x .833 (which is 1 - .167) = 30.6% = 2 tech rolls.
   30.6 + (16.7 x .694 (which is 1 - .306) = 42.2% = 3 tech rolls
   42.2 + (16.7 x .578 (which is 1 - .422) = 51.9% = 4 tech rolls
   51.9 + (16.7 x .481 (which is 1 - .519) = 59.9% = 5 tech rolls
   59.9 + (16.7 x .411 (which is 1 - .599) = 66.6% = 6 tech rolls
   66.6 + (16.7 x .334 (which is 1 - .666) = 72.1% = 7 tech rolls

Multiply this % by .167 to determine you chances of getting a single specific tech (like heavy bombers).
   Multiply by .333, .5, .666 and .833 for your chances of getting one tech in 2, 3, 4 or 5 techs respectively.

So for instance, if you make 7 tech rolls you have a 72.1 x .167 (or 12%) chance of getting heavy bombers.

Now if we can determine the IPC value of Heavy Bombers vs.we can a make cost analysis.  Since heavy bombers attack twice, their cost is best compared to simply buying a second bomber…

Heavy bombers cannot undertake separate missions, roll two ones or take two hits on defense.  But if we are just comparing their SBR capacity: heavy bombers take neither an extra AA gun hit nor do they offer a second target, compared to a second bomber.  Since AA guns have less than a 50% chance of hitting, this makes heavy bombers worse by (16.7% - 16.7%) or 2 IPCs.  Thus heavy bomb tech is worth 10 per existing bomber

So given the choice with 36 IPCs to buy 3 bombers or 5 tech rolls what is the proper choice?  Three bombers is worth exactly 36.  But as we’ve seen 7 tech rolls only has a 12% chance per turn to get heavy bombers.  (Granted it has a 72% chance per turn to get some tech, but 35 for any OTHER tech is ludicrous).

Even if we already have 10 bombers on the board and we get a tech this turn, we still only have a 16.7% of heavy bombers.  So the bombers are worth 36 and the tech is worth 16.7 IPCs at most.

I hope this conclusively proves that any money invested into securing a specific tech in a tournament length game (or probably even a marathon game) is wasted.

As an aside this means that rolling to get one of the two SBR mitigation techs (AA guns and Factory upgrade) isn’t really a strong option either.

Finally, it is worth noting that any financial commitment to SBR precludes at least SOME lack involvement in the traditional theaters of combat.  This has the effect of letting the Axis gain money through more easily achieved national objectives and marginal IPC territories (such as those found in Africa).  It also denies the allies (mostly England) progressively more IPCs.  It is for this reason that I think SBRs, while definitely a sound strategy, appear to be more game-breaking than perhaps they really are.

I agree completely that underdog games can be fun but I believe that at least for tourney play a balancing act is necessary.

If flat IPC bonuses are boring there are alternatives…

You can make existing national objectives easier or more rewarding for the underdog team.

You can also create new ones that give the game even more historic flavor.  One that I used for classic A&A is that Japan got 1 IPC for each unit it had within 2 territories of West United states (including forces aboard transports).

You can also give the underdogs a free tech, or free tech rolls.

You can also enact restrictions, for instance: Russia cannot attack Japan until Japan attacks them first.