@bugoo:

Actually the odds are better than 58, that is without the bomber at egypt.

Kar - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 cruiser bombard vs R: 5 inf, 1 art, 1 AA gun = 78% odds typically 3 units left

Egypt - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs B: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig = 90% odds typically 3 units left

SZ 2 - G: 2 sub, 1 fig vs B: 1 BB = 83% odds typically 1 unit left

Baltic - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 3 inf = 95% typically 3 units left

Poland - G: 2 inf, 4 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 5 units left

Ukraine - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 3 units left

Now those are pretty good odds, but with the small number of units anything can happen. Baltic/Poland/Ukraine if you loose you were gonna loose anyway, and it still sets up the can opener for G2. Provided you do not get diced hard in any of the fights, you should win, esp when your collecting 50+ IPC to spend on G2. And of course, J1 can get dicey too, I’ve seen the pearl fight go south before, or the DD at india destroy 2 figs, etc. Typically if J looses 2 figs on J1 and the DD at pearl your alright as allies, if they loose no figs, or keep the DD, it can get ugly real fast. Same with the 3 inf vs 1 inf fights if they take that route in china. Playing with dice though, I see no reason not to play to win on turn 1 with axis, the odds are in your favor. Also, even when the dice do bite you, many allied players get too aggressive in there counter attacks on turn 1 making it hard for them to hit in force in the mid game.

Actually the odds are worse. Although each of your 5 battles has very good odds individually, the odds of you winning ALL 5 of those battles is just 53% (multiply all your odds together as decimals). And i do not know how you got those odd for Egypt, because 5 germany units vs 5 uk units = 41% win, not 90%

For a few other kinds of openings:

My Heavy without Karelia:

Seazone 2 (1sub,1bomb,1ftr): 95%

Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%

Seazone 12 (1sub, 2ftr): 86%

Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%

East Poland (1inf, 3tank): 98%

Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 99%

Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 34% win + 7% no uk left = 41% (this attack is optional)

Chance of winning all without doing Egypt: 72% (<- a strong opening without NOs)

Chance of winning all with Egypt: 30%

My Risky with Egypt, without Karelia:

Seazone 2 (2sub,1ftr): 83%

Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%

Seazone 12 (2ftr): 50% win + 15% no enemy left = 65% (optional attack)

Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%

East Poland (1inf, 3tank): 98%

Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 99%

Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank, 1bomber): 75% win + 5% no uk left = 80%

Chance of winning all without doing sz12: 59% (<- a strong opening with NOs)

Chance of winning all with sz12: 38%

Super Risky with Egypt and Karelia:

Seazone 2 (2sub,1ftr): 83%

Seazone 6 (1sub): 40% win + 20% no units left = 60%

Karelia (1bombard, 3inf, 1art, 3ftrs) = 78% chance (ftrs: if you lose zero you have 89% chance winning, lose 1 ftr you have 68% chance winning, lose 2 ftr you have 35% chance)

Baltic States (4inf, 1art, 1tank): 98%

East Poland (1inf, 4tank): 99%

Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 1tank): 97%

Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank, 1bomber): 75% win + 5% no uk left = 80%

Chance of winning all without doing sz6: 49%

Chance of winning all with sz6: 29%

IL’s Not Risky without Karelia and Abandon Africa:

Seazone 2 (1sub,1bomb,1ftr): 95%

Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%

Seazone 12 (1sub, 2ftr): 86%

Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%

East Poland (1inf, 4tank): 99%

Ukraine (pulling 1inf and 1tank from africa: 3inf, 1art, 2tank): 100%

Chance of winning all: 74% (<- Strong opening with or without NOs, though Italy will never get its NOs)

I believe that is pretty much all 4 different openings with Germany that people use, subject to slight modifications and subject to what you decide to buy as germany.