Simple question: is the game balanced?

[Gallo Rojo]

@Veqryn:

I will happily play as the Axis against anyone without a bid, 1941 or 1942 With NOs.  (see me on tripleA)  :evil:

I’m on for a PBEM using TripleA
drop me a PM and we can set a game  :-)

[Gargantua]

Me too Verqyn :p

[bugoo]

One big thing to keep in mind as far as balance goes is the dice and how aggressive the axis player is on turn 1.  If the axis player makes the attacks that are dicey but in his odds on turn 1, and does not get bad dice, the allies are in for a world of hurt, this is what makes low luck such a big factor.  However, if the axis uses T1 attacks in an effort to win, instead of playing not to loose, more times than not he will have the advantage.

Take for example the G1 attack on Egypt.  Even without the bomber he has a 57% chance to win that fight, 6% for mutual destruction.  If you add the bomber the odds get much better, 90% and usually 2 armor and a bomber left.  Now to use the bomber down there you are using 2 subs and 1 fig against the battleship, an 83% in your favor battle.  But if your dice are bad on those attacks, it can cost you the game.  For this reason, many axis players are ignoring Egypt on G1, but they do have the odds.

An even more disgusting opening is using the bomber in egypt, and using 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 bombard on Karelia (78% almost 3 units left), and sinking the BB+transport.  Most of the time you will win these fights, and if you win all 3 allies may as well concede, but if you loose big on any of 'em (2 AA guns hit in Kar, BB lives, etc) you may as well concede.  What are the odds of winning all 3 fights?  I’m honestly not sure, other than in LL it is 100%.

[Octopus]

Good post Bugoo.

One thing you are inching on is how to deal with results (and how to interpret them). I have metioned in the past that far too many people believe that when they win it is good strategy, but when they lose the dice or bad (or the game is inbalanced).

A combat is deeper than a winner and loser, but each side can perform in two manners: rolling above odds, rolling below odds (it is possible to roll exact odds but that is not possible in most combats).

It is possible to roll below odds while your opponent rolls above odds and your combat goes horribly wrong. Does this mean your strategy is poor? no, it just means you have to do things differently to stay in the game.

I feel that far too many people try to do the quick kill and either win or lose on the first turn of the game (Egypt or Naval combat for G1).  This distorts the idea that the game is inbalanced or Germany must be even more extreme in order to win (or in some cases the Allies).

This is why I believe that good strategies can win despite rolling below odds.

[Pin]

58% for all those 3 attacks bogoo, but add in the odds for the 3 eastern europe attacks and its highly likely at least 1 of the 6attacks will fail

[Veqryn]

@Pin:

58% for all those 3 attacks bogoo, but add in the odds for the 3 eastern europe attacks and its highly likely at least 1 of the 6attacks will fail

Which is why dice are important to the design of the game.  Yes, T1 Axis have great openings, but chances are that one of their many opening attacks will fail, and that is what the allies have to base their recovery on.  Unfortunately, in LL, none of their attacks fail, producing a relatively static game.
Good post bogoo, +1

[bugoo]

Actually the odds are better than 58, that is without the bomber at egypt.

Kar - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 cruiser bombard vs R: 5 inf, 1 art, 1 AA gun = 78% odds typically 3 units left
Egypt - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs B: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig = 90% odds typically 3 units left
SZ 2 - G: 2 sub, 1 fig vs B: 1 BB = 83% odds typically 1 unit left
Baltic - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 3 inf = 95% typically 3 units left
Poland - G: 2 inf, 4 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 5 units left
Ukraine - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 3 units left

Now those are pretty good odds, but with the small number of units anything can happen.  Baltic/Poland/Ukraine if you loose you were gonna loose anyway, and it still sets up the can opener for G2.  Provided you do not get diced hard in any of the fights, you should win, esp when your collecting 50+ IPC to spend on G2.  And of course, J1 can get dicey too, I’ve seen the pearl fight go south before, or the DD at india destroy 2 figs, etc.  Typically if J looses 2 figs on J1 and the DD at pearl your alright as allies, if they loose no figs, or keep the DD, it can get ugly real fast.  Same with the 3 inf vs 1 inf fights if they take that route in china.  Playing with dice though, I see no reason not to play to win on turn 1 with axis, the odds are in your favor.  Also, even when the dice do bite you, many allied players get too aggressive in there counter attacks on turn 1 making it hard for them to hit in force in the mid game.

[Octopus]

The issue I see with such an agressive first turn is the burn rate of infantry and inability to hold ground.

From those first moves I would set the US and British builds to prepare for a big invasion on turn 3. The resources necessary to stop/hold the invasion would eat into the majority of German builds meaning the East would be starved of support.  The natural result would be the Russians getting the +10 IPC’s for taking German soil.

In short, I believe the same (well, near same) can be acheived by taking a more conservative approach while not losing as many units and holding back the Red Hoardes.

I could be wrong, but that is how I see it.

[Veqryn]

@bugoo:

Actually the odds are better than 58, that is without the bomber at egypt.

Kar - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 cruiser bombard vs R: 5 inf, 1 art, 1 AA gun = 78% odds typically 3 units left
Egypt - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs B: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig = 90% odds typically 3 units left
SZ 2 - G: 2 sub, 1 fig vs B: 1 BB = 83% odds typically 1 unit left
Baltic - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 3 inf = 95% typically 3 units left
Poland - G: 2 inf, 4 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 5 units left
Ukraine - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 3 units left

Now those are pretty good odds, but with the small number of units anything can happen.  Baltic/Poland/Ukraine if you loose you were gonna loose anyway, and it still sets up the can opener for G2.  Provided you do not get diced hard in any of the fights, you should win, esp when your collecting 50+ IPC to spend on G2.  And of course, J1 can get dicey too, I’ve seen the pearl fight go south before, or the DD at india destroy 2 figs, etc.  Typically if J looses 2 figs on J1 and the DD at pearl your alright as allies, if they loose no figs, or keep the DD, it can get ugly real fast.  Same with the 3 inf vs 1 inf fights if they take that route in china.  Playing with dice though, I see no reason not to play to win on turn 1 with axis, the odds are in your favor.  Also, even when the dice do bite you, many allied players get too aggressive in there counter attacks on turn 1 making it hard for them to hit in force in the mid game.

Actually the odds are worse.  Although each of your 5 battles has very good odds individually, the odds of you winning ALL 5 of those battles is just 53% (multiply all your odds together as decimals).  And i do not know how you got those odd for Egypt, because 5 germany units vs 5 uk units = 41% win, not 90%

For a few other kinds of openings:

My Heavy without Karelia:
Seazone 2 (1sub,1bomb,1ftr): 95%
Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
Seazone 12 (1sub, 2ftr): 86%
Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
East Poland (1inf, 3tank): 98%
Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 99%
Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 34% win + 7% no uk left = 41% (this attack is optional)
Chance of winning all without doing Egypt: 72% (<- a strong opening without NOs)
Chance of winning all with Egypt: 30%

My Risky with Egypt, without Karelia:
Seazone 2 (2sub,1ftr): 83%
Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
Seazone 12 (2ftr): 50% win + 15% no enemy left = 65% (optional attack)
Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
East Poland (1inf, 3tank): 98%
Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 99%
Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank, 1bomber): 75% win + 5% no uk left = 80%
Chance of winning all without doing sz12: 59% (<- a strong opening with NOs)
Chance of winning all with sz12: 38%

Super Risky with Egypt and Karelia:
Seazone 2 (2sub,1ftr): 83%
Seazone 6 (1sub): 40% win + 20% no units left = 60%
Karelia (1bombard, 3inf, 1art, 3ftrs) = 78% chance (ftrs: if you lose zero you have 89% chance winning, lose 1 ftr you have 68% chance winning, lose 2 ftr you have 35% chance)
Baltic States (4inf, 1art, 1tank): 98%
East Poland (1inf, 4tank): 99%
Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 1tank): 97%
Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank, 1bomber): 75% win + 5% no uk left = 80%
Chance of winning all without doing sz6: 49%
Chance of winning all with sz6: 29%

IL’s Not Risky without Karelia and Abandon Africa:
Seazone 2 (1sub,1bomb,1ftr): 95%
Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
Seazone 12 (1sub, 2ftr): 86%
Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
East Poland (1inf, 4tank): 99%
Ukraine (pulling 1inf and 1tank from africa: 3inf, 1art, 2tank): 100%
Chance of winning all: 74% (<- Strong opening with or without NOs, though Italy will never get its NOs)

I believe that is pretty much all 4 different openings with Germany that people use, subject to slight modifications and subject to what you decide to buy as germany.

[Pin]

@bugoo:

Actually the odds are better than 58, that is without the bomber at egypt.

Kar - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 cruiser bombard vs R: 5 inf, 1 art, 1 AA gun = 78% odds typically 3 units left
Egypt - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs B: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig = 90% odds typically 3 units left
SZ 2 - G: 2 sub, 1 fig vs B: 1 BB = 83% odds typically 1 unit left
Baltic - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 3 inf = 95% typically 3 units left
Poland - G: 2 inf, 4 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 5 units left
Ukraine - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 3 units left

I wasnt saying it was the individual odds for Egypt, i was talking about ALL 3 succeeding in the same game. Basic odds maths state that you have to multiply the odds for each of the individual battles as decimals to get the odds for a all out success.

For youre 6 attacks G1 the odds for all beeing successfull would be:
0.78 x 0.90 x 0.83 x 0.95 x 0.98 x 0.98 = 0.53 = 53% chance of success. Remember these numbers just state its a 53% chance you will win ALL 6 battles with at least 1 remaining unit after the battle. But thats a crappy result if you only have 1 unit left in each of them, so if you want the typical result as you type after in each battle the odds would probably be around 10% even though i havent calced those. I know a lot dont have the statistical background, but these considerations are very much important to take into consideration to make a good strategy in a dice game like AA50. Off the board the Axis looks so very powerfull before turn 1, but doing around 20 attacks combined for all the axis turn 1 will make one or more attacks fail and then again lead to an opening for the Allies to exploit.

Offcourse an all out offensive every game will lead to a round where everything is successfull and you will almost decide the game in turn 1. But this is not a versatile approach that will make you win games on a consistent basis. I would try to come up with an opening where you with a high chance will stand so strong that whatever the dices throw at you, you will still be in position to win the game.

[bugoo]

forgot to list the bomber at egypt =)

What would the odds be on how many fights would go bad, like for example, if 53% of the time i will win all 6, how often would i win 5, or 4, or 3?  Or how badly I would loose them?  Because if I lost Kar but got all other 5 I would still be happy.  I’m not trying to be argumentative i’m just bad with statistics and curious.  I normally play LL anyway.

[Veqryn]

@bugoo:

forgot to list the bomber at egypt =)

What would the odds be on how many fights would go bad, like for example, if 53% of the time i will win all 6, how often would i win 5, or 4, or 3?  Or how badly I would loose them?  Because if I lost Kar but got all other 5 I would still be happy.  I’m not trying to be argumentative i’m just bad with statistics and curious.  I normally play LL anyway.

If you include the bomber, you chance of winning OR eliminating all units in Egypt is = 80%, so that total for you would be 47%, not 53%.
I’m guessing the chances for winning 5 would be around 35, winning 4 around 15, winning 3 around 2.5%, winning 2 around 0.4, winning 1 around 0.1.
I’m not willing to do the math right now, but I do want to do it at some point.

Ok, so using NCn = N!/(n!(N-n)!), we find that
there is only 1 way to win them all,
6 ways to only win 5,
15 ways to only win 4
20 ways to only win 3
15 ways to only win 2
6 ways to only win 1
1 ways to lose them all

Odds = P = {.78 , .80 , .83 , .95 , .98 , .98}
Q = 1 - P = { .22 , .20 , .17 , .05 , .02 , .02}

Matrix that shit….
etc. etc.
do the rest tomorrow

[bugoo]

Thanks mate, because in all honesty if the odds came down to -

47% of winning all 6
75ish of winning 5, i still feel it would be worth it.  Even if you lost one of the big three, your still in a strong position and can simply take fewer risks with Japan’s turn.  Because even if you loose against the BB, or Egypt, or Kar it wouldn’t be a game ender, now if you lost 2 of them, well that would be bad.  Now I guess the question would be, how much of an advantage or disadvantage you would have if you lost one of those, or two of those.

[Pin]

migth happen i did wrong on the calculator, but read my last post again bogoo, thats 47% that you win all battles with 1 - ONE - 1 unit minimum. Thats NOT a good place to be. What you want is to decide how many units you need to be left with after turn 1, then calc the odds for that to happen and see if thats a situation you want to be in. For example you want all youre 6 armors on the eastern front alive. You want at least 3fgters and bomber alive, and you preferably want to take Egypt with at least 1 armor. Along with that you want enough inf on the eastern front to make sure you can trade territories for youre 2nd NO wihtout have to use armors to trade those territorries. Again go and check the league and tournament G1 turns and you will see almost if not everyone do a more conservative G1 as on a consistent basis you will not have enough units left after G1 if you do that opening.

[Veqryn]

I view taking Karelia turn 1 in 1941 as very inadvisable.  Yes, it is basically 78% chance to win, with an average of 3 units left… but you are attacking with 3 ftrs, so that means you either lose a ftr and keep karelia, or you merely destroy his stack.  Also, you have a 55% chance of losing at least 1 ftr out of 3 from the AA gun (no, it is not 50%, it is 55%, statistics is fun!)

[Lynxes]

Interesting debate about openings here, but I really don’t see that much variation for the German opening. Egypt attack is such a good thing IPC-wise for Germany that they would be foolish not to. An 80% attack giving loads of IPCs in Africa while at the same time robbing UK of a fighter, an NO and loads of African IPCs…  :roll:

Japan though is another case since you’ll be attacking against destroyers with fighters, so that’s more random. Attacking the Indian fleet seems a must, but the West coast fleet could be forgone maybe. I’m also very ambivalent about invading Burma or not on turn 1, it sets up against India nicely but might upset your other moves. Maybe it’s Japan who should be dealt a low-risk opening?

[Twigley]

Good question about low risk Japan opening Lynxes. But does it matter as much as with Germany?

How is Japan’s high risk opening punished? The Russians and Brits in Europe have the foundations of a powerful attack force which can be rallied against a reckless Germany. Who’s there in the pacific to punish the Japanese?

[Pin]

Lynxes: my german opening now is never Egypt turn 1. Reason beeing on turn im 110% sure to take it HARD with enough forces to make sure i get all the african IPCs at least for a few turns. What i do is taking Ukraine hard with 4armors, and shuffle units to Lib turn 1. Italy either shore bombard Egypt to soften it if he stacks it hard (z35 dd survived and he moved 2 indian units there) or take Egypt if he stacked Persia / TrJ. Then on turn 2 i fetch 2 more units from Ukraine to Egypt and now i have a solid african corps that can hold africa for a much longer time suplemented with the Italian reinforcements.

[dondoolee]

@Veqryn:

@bugoo:

Actually the odds are better than 58, that is without the bomber at egypt.

Kar - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 3 fig, 1 cruiser bombard vs R: 5 inf, 1 art, 1 AA gun = 78% odds typically 3 units left
Egypt - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm vs B: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm, 1 fig = 90% odds typically 3 units left
SZ 2 - G: 2 sub, 1 fig vs B: 1 BB = 83% odds typically 1 unit left
Baltic - G: 3 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 3 inf = 95% typically 3 units left
Poland - G: 2 inf, 4 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 5 units left
Ukraine - G: 2 inf, 1 art, 1 arm vs R: 2 inf = 98% odds typically 3 units left

Now those are pretty good odds, but with the small number of units anything can happen.  Baltic/Poland/Ukraine if you loose you were gonna loose anyway, and it still sets up the can opener for G2.  Provided you do not get diced hard in any of the fights, you should win, esp when your collecting 50+ IPC to spend on G2.  And of course, J1 can get dicey too, I’ve seen the pearl fight go south before, or the DD at india destroy 2 figs, etc.  Typically if J looses 2 figs on J1 and the DD at pearl your alright as allies, if they loose no figs, or keep the DD, it can get ugly real fast.  Same with the 3 inf vs 1 inf fights if they take that route in china.  Playing with dice though, I see no reason not to play to win on turn 1 with axis, the odds are in your favor.  Also, even when the dice do bite you, many allied players get too aggressive in there counter attacks on turn 1 making it hard for them to hit in force in the mid game.

Actually the odds are worse.  Although each of your 5 battles has very good odds individually, the odds of you winning ALL 5 of those battles is just 53% (multiply all your odds together as decimals).  And i do not know how you got those odd for Egypt, because 5 germany units vs 5 uk units = 41% win, not 90%

For a few other kinds of openings:

My Heavy without Karelia:
Seazone 2 (1sub,1bomb,1ftr): 95%
Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
Seazone 12 (1sub, 2ftr): 86%
Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
East Poland (1inf, 3tank): 98%
Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 99%
Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 34% win + 7% no uk left = 41% (this attack is optional)
Chance of winning all without doing Egypt: 72% (<- a strong opening without NOs)
Chance of winning all with Egypt: 30%

My Risky with Egypt, without Karelia:
Seazone 2 (2sub,1ftr): 83%
Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
Seazone 12 (2ftr): 50% win + 15% no enemy left = 65% (optional attack)
Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
East Poland (1inf, 3tank): 98%
Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 2tank): 99%
Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank, 1bomber): 75% win + 5% no uk left = 80%
Chance of winning all without doing sz12: 59% (<- a strong opening with NOs)
Chance of winning all with sz12: 38%

Super Risky with Egypt and Karelia:
Seazone 2 (2sub,1ftr): 83%
Seazone 6 (1sub): 40% win + 20% no units left = 60%
Karelia (1bombard, 3inf, 1art, 3ftrs) = 78% chance (50% chance you will lose 1 ftr, 5.56% chance you will lose 2, 0.5% chance you will lose 3.  [55.1% chance you will lose at least 1 ftr], if you lose zero you have 89% chance winning, lose 1 ftr you have 68% chance winning, lose 2 ftr you have 35% chance)
Baltic States (4inf, 1art, 1tank): 98%
East Poland (1inf, 4tank): 99%
Ukraine (2inf, 1art, 1tank): 97%
Egypt (2inf, 1art, 2tank, 1bomber): 75% win + 5% no uk left = 80%
Chance of winning all without doing sz6: 49%
Chance of winning all with sz6: 29%

IL’s Not Risky without Karelia and Abandon Africa:
Seazone 2 (1sub,1bomb,1ftr): 95%
Seazone 6 (1sub, 1ftr): 92%
Seazone 12 (1sub, 2ftr): 86%
Baltic States (1bombard, 5inf, 2art, 1tank): 100%
East Poland (1inf, 4tank): 99%
Ukraine (pulling 1inf and 1tank from africa: 3inf, 1art, 2tank): 100%
Chance of winning all: 74% (<- Strong opening with or without NOs, though Italy will never get its NOs)

I believe that is pretty much all 4 different openings with Germany that people use, subject to slight modifications and subject to what you decide to buy as germany.

great post.  While those are certainly some of my common opening moves, I have a couple high risk ones that throw a solo bomber in SZ 9.
Example:
SZ6: 1 fig 1 sub (92%)
SZ2: 2 sub 1 fig (83%)
SZ9: 1 bomb (75%)
SZ12: 2 fig (50%)
Egy: 2 inf, 1 art, 2 arm (34% win + 7% no uk left = 41%)
Baltic States: 4 inf, 2 art, 1 crusier bomb (99%)
East Poland: 2 inf, 3 Arm (99%)
Ukraine: 3 Inf, Arm, 1 Art (99%)

A 56% chance not counting SZ 12 or Egy, a 28% chance of complete success not counting Egypt, 10% chance with taking Egypt, and a 12% chance of clearing all Egy units.

[Lynxes]

/Pin

Not attacking EGY G1 is an Indian IC waiting to happen. UK gets at least 1 arm+1fig to India, and if the Russians send 4 inf and UK transfers 2 figs from Europe you could end up with as much as 7 inf, 1 art, 4 arm, 3 figs in India turn 3… Most assumptions on an Indian IC not being viable are based on a German attack on Egypt and I certainly think it looks different otherwise.