I have played all OOB set-up games in person. And several Alpha games online. Between firsthand experience and what I have seen online I have come to several conclusions.
1. The Global game favors the allies in both set-ups.
2. The Axis need average to good dice to have a chace, especially in the early game.
3. Alpha redueces the starting units for both sides……but hurts Japan’s ability to defend itself in the later rounds vs. the USA
In Pacific Alpha seems to work fine. The issue is if Japan attacks R1 in Global both Italy, and Germany are in a world of hurt.
Sealion becomes much harder, and the USA can re-take the UK much sooner even if Sealion is successful.
4. Alpha helps Japan on the mainland for the first few turns as it has some more inf…but hinders its ability to expand and hold islands (its main source of income)
5. The USA has that massive income that never really decreases. 80 IPC going into whatever side of the map it wants. That is more than either Japan, or Germany ever reach alone in almost every game.
The economic balance is set up greatly favoring the allies, and in every game I have played the Axis have never gained economic superiority over the Allies. In some games they have had better position, but not more money.
I am not saying the game is broken. But it is much harder for the Axis to get victories using the current set-up, OOB or Alpha.