Attacking the Med fleet

[666]

@losttribe04:

If the German transport is undefended.

Who are you guys playing? I’m ready for an easy game!

[losttribe04]

He he thats funny.

-LT04

[Weekend Gamer]

@axis_roll:

I’ve seen such allied insanity as 2 ftr, bmr on 2 tpt, BB in SZ15….

and UK won, round 2, with merely losing 1 ftr.

Pretty large game swing there.  :(

Okay, A_R, this sounds like sour grapes to me.  :wink:

But in all seriousness, it wasn’t that crazy for me to attack your Med fleet Round 2 with my UK air force.  According to Frood, my odds were:

Survive with no losses . . . 3.42%

Survive losing 1 ftr. . . . 16.7%  (i.e., just over a 20% chance of me clearing the sea zone with 1 ftr. or less loss!)

Survive losing 2 ftrs . . . 24.53%

Lose everything . . . 55.35%

Okay, not great odds if this is a land battle, but let’s look at your fleet’s odds of survival:

Survive with no losses . . . 6.26%

Survive losing 1 transport . . . 15.78%

Survive losing BOTH transports . . . 20.08%

Lose everything . . . 57.88!

So I had about an 88% chance of effectively ending the German menace to Africa, not to mention the Caucuses, in Round 2!.  If it means I have to re-build some Allied air, I’ll take those odds every time.  In fact, I sometimes go ahead and build the extra air on UK 1 so I don’t have to do it later.  (I did so in our game, in fact.)

The alternative approach is to wait for the U.S. fleet to arrive, where you are basically looking at Turn 4 or 5 at the earliest before they have the firepower (assuming a Med. Fleet w/two transports).  By then, Germany should have Africa secured.  Not only that, but America has to screw up its shuck to enter the Med (usually).  Are you telling me that losing a couple of British fighters is a worse alternative than that?  Personally, I only like to move into the Med if I am taking Southern Europe.  That’s a nice exchange for my shuck – as opposed to a Med. fleet that’s probably already served its purpose for Germany.

[axis_roll]

the only sour grapes was that you only lost 1 ftr (22% odds for that)

It was a 50-50 battle going in, huge reward, somewhat risky.

It paid off well for you.  In ANY battle, you have to weigh the cost versus reward and consider the odds.  I can see that it was a huge battle for the allies, but had the 50-50 battle gone against you, it may have been pretty disasterous. (well axis_roll, that’s when you w/d!)

Agreed with all you and I have said.

When one side continues to lose key battles to 20% outcomes, it’s hard to overcome.

Re-Checking my odds calc, I had 42% chance of having the BB or more left… hell, If I had traded my fleet for your UK airforce (55%), I would’ve been ecstatic!

Bottom line, you need to win some battles to win the war, and your UK air force did just that for you there.  My airforce FAILED to do that for me a round or two later.  Those tow huge battles put me in catch-up mode, from which I was never able to recover.

[SpartanJD01]

Last night i had the opportunity to attack the German BB & tran in SZ 15 with the Indian fleet, Egypt fig and bomber on UK1 thinking i could get to them in a couple of rounds.  I instead chose to pester Japan by invading Borneo and East Indies, hit the tran and sub.  Results, lost DD taking out tran, lost the sub, took the islands, lost all but 2 figs on the counter because japan didn’t need to hit the DD and sub, if those survived would have been able to maintain the carrier.

Needless to say, i never got another good opportunity to hit the Med fleet until the end of the game which drew out a game that would have been done in 6 rounds to about 9.  Had i taken the med fleet on UK one, probably could have done so only loosing the tranny, leaving a loaded carrier and DD safe in the med wichi could hook up with other support on UK 2 and had unfettered control of Afrika by T3, allowing full shuck into Karelia from there on out.

[axis_roll]

@SpartanJD01:

Needless to say, i never got another good opportunity to hit the Med fleet until the end of the game which drew out a game that would have been done in 6 rounds to about 9.  Had i taken the med fleet on UK one, probably could have done so only loosing the tranny, leaving a loaded carrier and DD safe in the med wichi could hook up with other support on UK 2 and had unfettered control of Afrika by T3, allowing full shuck into Karelia from there on out.

Every game is a learning experience

[SpartanJD01]

I learned plenty of what not to do with UK on that turn.  Of course, circumstances are always different.

[newpaintbrush]

Med fleet shouldn’t be a big deal.  You’re dumping loads into Africa, which the Germans can’t match.  So the Germans really are using the Med fleet to bolster its attack on Caucasus/Ukraine.  1-2 units a turn plus battleship bombard makes a difference, but it isn’t by any means a major problem; you can be dumping units into Russia through Archangel, even while you’re feeding units into Africa.

If the Germans built 1-2 additional transports in Med, then it’s a problem.  But all the US has to do is use some of its transports plus air, and the German Med fleet is toast, barring a carrier build - at which point Germany’s put so much in the water that it probably can’t compete on the ground against Russia anyways.

In short - if the Med fleet becomes a problem, you can deal with it.  If you’re rolling over Germany with superior air already, you can roll through the Med to challenge Japan’s attack on Africa.  That’s another barrel of cookies.

[Weekend Gamer]

Hey, NPB, where do I find these barrels of cookies?  They sound yummy.  :-D

[Jennifer]

@ncscswitch:

It ges taken out when I can do so with minimal risk of loss to my fleet. No set round as it varies based on Germany’s moves… especially their FIG placements, and of course whether or not they reinforce the fleet.

Always a good point to minimize your own losses.

I look at:
Estimated cost of units lost in IPC
Estimated cost of units lost in terms of placements of those units
Estimated cost of potention losses in terms of income and position lost from battles forgone
Estimated cost of the same to Germany

For instance, a transport and battleship defending against 4 fighters and 2 transports is worth it.  I lose 16 IPC (probably in two rounds) and he loses 32 IPC.  My fighters can land in a good position for the next round.  The losses are against America, probably the one nation that can best afford to throw away units for little gain.

[Guest]

One other major factor for the Allies to consider…

Cost of having units out of position for subsequent turns.

In particular, if the attack is waged by mostly Naval units of the United States.  moving on SZ14 (or thereabouts) to attack the Med Fleet COULD result in the interruption of the US shuck into Africa/Europe by 3 full turns.

That in itself is a nice gift for Germany… being able to ignore the US for 3 turns is a pretty nice boost, especially around T3 or T4 when the US normally should be becoming a factor.

[Weekend Gamer]

Good point, Switch.  You gotta know when it’s safe to turn off the U.S. spigot and go for the jugular!  Personally, that’s why I prefer an early exit for the Med. fleet when I’m playing Allies so that all I gotta worry about after that, as far as the Med. is concerned, is taking Southern Europe.

[Baghdaddy]

Ironically, when I am playing the Axis I like an early exit for the Med fleet to!!

Into the Atlantic!!!  :evil: