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Alpha 3 Sealion Experiment



  • Well with the Alpha3 deadline approaching soon I thought it would be wise to work out a ‘best case’ scenario for Germ using average results to find out if indeed sealion is as dead as we all fear.

    Here are my basic ideas, to reduce losses G1 and build 1 CV 2 trn.  Then G2 10 trns in order to have the maximum amount of troops to ship over for a G3 invasion.  Along the Russian front I hope to use Italians and Germans to stem the tide, letting the Russians wash up to the gates of Berlin and Nitaly before I feel they may have stepped too far.  Because of this I think I will be using Italy to take out Greece.

    Alpha3 moves to follow.



  • G1
    Buy $30= 2 trn 1 cv

    Combat
    Paris-
    3 inf 1 art 4 mech
    2 art 3 arm from Holland
    2 arm from SGerm
    (3 inf 3 art 4 mech 5 arm vs 9@2 2@3 1@4, new aa gun)-lose mechs before arty
    G- 5 hits F-5 hits, G-5 hits F-4 hits, G-4 hits F-2 hits.  This may be a probable outcome, if so it leaves Germany with 4 arm in paris

    Normandy
    4 inf  1 ftr from Holland (ftr lands in SItaly)
    1 tac from Wgerm (lands in Wgerm)
    1 ftr from Wgerm(lands in Sitaly)
    4 inf 1 tac 2 ftr vs 2 inf 1 arm 1 ftr
    taken with 1 inf, a cleared result is also acceptable

    Yugo
    6inf 2 art Sgerm
    2 inf 1 arm 1 ftr slovakia(lands in sz112)
    1 inf 1 arm Romania
    1 tac poland (land in Wgerm)
    9 inf 2 art 2 arm 1ftr 1tac vs 5 inf, retreat to Romania if it gets rough
    taken with 2 inf lost

    sz112
    1 BB 1 CA from 113
    1 sub from sz 124
    1 BB 1 CA 1 SUB vs 2 CA
    97.4%taken w/ damaged bb?

    sz 110
    1 ftr Norway(lands in sz112)
    2 tac 1 ftr WGerm(land in Wgerm)
    1 tac 1 bmb Germ(land in Wgerm, tac is first casualty because it must land in Belgium)
    1 sub each from 108, 103
    2 subs 2 ftr 3 tac 1 bmb vs 1 BB 1 CA and 3 possible scrambles
    sz taken w 1 sub

    sz106
    1 sub each from sz 118, 117
    88% taken w/o loss

    Noncom
    1 arm poland-Wgerm
    assorted inf and art to Wgerm-Germ(dependent on filling 2 trn loads of 13 trns.  remainder head to Slovakia)
    leave 1 inf in Poland, and take Bulg/Fin with 1 inf each

    Placement-all in sz112



  • Thanks to the brand new aa gun rules, my odds calc doesn’t work.:(  Some of the odds for these battles are easy and I’m going to go back and edit them in, otherwise I am at a loss.

    Also would like to comment on the turn.  Perhaps it would be more wise to send that Polish tac to Yugo instead of 112, the sub is there in case of 2 hits but the tac is really just extra.  I think I might change that.  Also things look pretty tight with that aa gun in Paris.  If you do not want to risk planes I’m not seeing alot of other air targets.

    Also I had to lose the sz91 attack with 2 subs.  By putting those 2 subs into sz110 I don’t think UK will scramble.  So this makes me ask the question, is it better to get UK to scramble there?  2 ftr 3 tac 1 bmb vs 1 BB 1 CA and 3 scramblers.  Any dead UK ftrs could help immensely in the upcoming invasion.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    A)  Hope you are planning G4 sea lion, I don’t think it’s possible to take England on Germany 3 if England tries to defend.

    B)  Run the numbers for the first round, then “remove” the AA Guns and run the numbers again.  Only way I know to do it.  Think it’s the closest way to make an accurate prediction.

    C)  You need units on the ground built on G3 or you wont have enough men on G4.  I want 10 Infantry, 7 Artillery, 5 Armor, AA Gun for the first landing, make England think about strafing.



  • UK 1 response with Max defend

    Since my G1 garnered no discussion I must assume it is rather rote in its Sealion approach.  That is probably a good thing.  UK is still going to max defend London in order to make it impossible to defeat a G3 sealion and a G4 sealion.  I think much of the original template can  be followed, including the 9 inf build.  The gift of the Italian dd/trn will be snatched up, but doesn’t a Taranto raid still diminish possible UK resources used in the defense of London?  Since Normandy was taken, I think I will still forgo that raid, taking the free italian units instead.

    UK1

    28=9 inf save 1

    Combat
    sz110
    1 dd sz111
    2 ftr London(land in Gib)
    1 ftr Scotland(lands in London)
    1 dd 3 ftr vs 1 sub
    taken no loss

    sz 96
    1 CA sz 91
    1 ftr Gib(land on cV)
    1 ftr Malta(land on CV
    1 tac CV(lands Gib)
    1 dd 1 trn vs 1 CA 2 ftr 1 tac
    taken no loss

    Persia
    1 inf WIndia
    1 art India
    1 inf 1 art via trn off India
    taken no loss

    Noncom
    1 inf scotland->London
    1 inf 1 arm Ontario->Quebec
    1 CV 1 CA 1 trn sz98->sz92
    (trn carries 1 arm Alexandria, 1 inf malta to Gib)
    1 dd sz98->sz94
    1 inf 1 art alexandria->egypt
    1 inf 1 art 1 mech egypt->Sudan
    2 inf Saf-> Rhodesia
    1 dd sz71->sz81
    1 dd 1 trn sz109->sz92(if Germany has sustained air casualties and has less than 9 planes, bring an aa gun to Gib)
    1 bb sz111 ->104, unless dd died in 110, then most likely block in 110

    Placement
    9 inf London

    Collect 35ipcs, saved 1

    Any comments?  Theres a bit of redundancy here, so if the battles go bad another unit can provided blocking.



  • My only comment is in the original purchase - I think the 9 Infantry is a good, solid buy - hard to argue with it. I think the AA allows a margin of freedom, though, and I plan to try 6 Infantry and a Fighter UK1. It allows more options down the road, and still maintains a great defense. It also takes into consideration the possible loss of extra land units due to the French AA Gun. In particular, Artillery that has to be replaced for Sealion.



  • grrr, either I’m making all the right moves, and nobody is thinking to critique them, or more likely nobody is bothering to partake in this situational exercise.  You don’t have to do any of the major typing, just review my moves and make sure I’m not doing anything boneheaded and also am working towards the best Sealion possible with Alpha3.

    Either way, I’m going to push on to daylight!

    Italy1

    purchase
    10=1 ftr

    Combat
    sz94
    1 sub sz 95
    1 lvl bmb Nitaly(land in Sitlay)
    1 sub 1 bmb vs 1 dd

    sz 96
    1 dd sz95
    1 ftr Nitaly(land in Sitaly)
    1 ftr Sitaly(land in Sitaly)
    1 dd 2 ftr vs 1 CA

    Greece
    2 inf 1 arm Albania
    2 inf Sitaly, 2 art Nitaly via trn to Greece
    2 CA 1 bb support shots
    4 inf 2 art 1 arm vs 4 inf

    Alexandria
    Tobruk army vs 1 inf

    Noncom
    1 inf 1 art Libya to Tobruk
    Nitaly 2 inf 1 arm to Sitaly

    Placement
    1 ftr Sitaly

    Collect 13(including Kenya)

    I think already I see it would be better to send the dd vs the UK dd and the sub against the CA in the off chance I get a surprise attack with the sub.  The ftr was purchased on the off chance it will be able to influence the Sealion advance.

    Mantlefan had mentioned a UK move where they took out the 96 and 97 fleets UK1, but I wasn’t able to figure it out.  I do see that UK can probably smack that Italian fleet in sz97 if they are willing to lose those aircraft.


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    Mantle probably assume no German aircraft in S. Italy, so he can spread himself really thin and “rely on the dice”  He does that a lot.



  • @JimmyHat:

    Mantlefan had mentioned a UK move where they took out the 96 and 97 fleets UK1, but I wasn’t able to figure it out.  I do see that UK can probably smack that Italian fleet in sz97 if they are willing to lose those aircraft.

    Hrm? 3 ftr, 1 tac to SZ 97 with no Germans = ~85% chance of success, with most likely outcome loss of 2 ftr. Add a ftr and the csr for nearly assured victory.

    Add in the German fighters against the whole lot, ~70% victory UK.



  • Ok Jimmy! I’m looking through.

    G1 - think about switching a Mech Infantry with a regular in Normandy. Since you should win with 1 Infantry, it could be a Mech instead and save you a mobile unit. If you know the ones in France will die - why not let regular Infantry take a beating instead?

    I don’t think any aircraft need to be used in Yugoslavia - they can both make it to naval battles and/or France. I use the Fighter from Hungary in SZ112, and the Tac from Poland in France. I openly defy the AA in France - it’s only a 1 in 6 chance, and it teams with Armor to give you an extra 4 for three rounds… which means you should keep an extra Armor and possibly an Artillery, by my math. That offer is too good for me to pass up, even with the threat of the Tac getting shot down. And with the land units you’re bringing, the Yugo battle is a two-rounder and should result in two lost German Infantry regardless.

    SZ112 just added the Fighter from Hungary, which gives you 12 pips or two hits, meaning a better chance to keep your Sub.

    SZs 110 and 106 look good. It would be a bad idea for Britain to scramble.

    Noncom - I would have used the Armor in Poland in Yugo - it can get back next round in time for Sealion.

    UK1 - I’d take out the Italian Destroyer/Transport combo with a Brit Destroyer/Fighter/Tac Bomber. Then you have the flexibility to park your fleet elsewhere.

    Even though I commented earlier on a different UK purchase, 9 Infantry is smart.

    Noncoms look reasonable to me.

    ITA1 - yes, I would also kill off the British as you did, but if I were the British I wouldn’t have given you the targets. And are you saving S France for G2? I’d let Italy have it, personally, and collect on it the first turn, and get closer to your NO.

    OK! It was cool to go through your moves and think about them. I also know it’s good to get some feedback.



  • Jimmy - you got upset you weren’t generating any chatter so I went through your idea and really gave it some thought, and you haven’t replied…

    What’s that all about?  🙂



  • Work and football!  I’ll get to it today and thanks for responding!


  • 2018 2017 2016 '11 Moderator

    foosball is the devil!



  • You’re welcome Jimmyhat! Glued to about four different games right now. I like watching the Rams have a rebirth. It’s fun to watch the teams that have been down rise again!

    And Jen - football is the devil… the devil I keep letting into my house.



  • @Stalingradski:

    Ok Jimmy! I’m looking through.

    G1 - think about switching a Mech Infantry with a regular in Normandy. Since you should win with 1 Infantry, it could be a Mech instead and save you a mobile unit. If you know the ones in France will die - why not let regular Infantry take a beating instead?
    ***I think you’re right, this is a better idea and a reason to not put only inf in Normandy

    I don’t think any aircraft need to be used in Yugoslavia - they can both make it to naval battles and/or France. I use the Fighter from Hungary in SZ112, and the Tac from Poland in France. I openly defy the AA in France - it’s only a 1 in 6 chance, and it teams with Armor to give you an extra 4 for three rounds… which means you should keep an extra Armor and possibly an Artillery, by my math. That offer is too good for me to pass up, even with the threat of the Tac getting shot down. And with the land units you’re bringing, the Yugo battle is a two-rounder and should result in two lost German Infantry regardless.
    ***the aircraft in Yugo were really superfluous, they just wound up there because there were few other options for them to fly to.  The one in Poland originally went to 112, I think you’re right and sending it there is wiser than Yugo in order to further safeguard the fleet.  I’m not sold on a 1 in 6 chance of hitting a plane over Paris, I certainly wouldn’t count on that aircraft making it.  I’d rather keep the aircraft from hitting Paris in order to guarantee their usage in G2 and G3.

    SZ112 just added the Fighter from Hungary, which gives you 12 pips or two hits, meaning a better chance to keep your Sub.

    SZs 110 and 106 look good. It would be a bad idea for Britain to scramble.
    That’s why I would consider hitting 91 with 2 subs and just air on 110.  This would be in the hope that UK scrambles.  If they do, the first 2 casualties will be BB hit and CA, after that it’s aircraft and someone might be unwise enough to save the BB over a ftr.

    Noncom - I would have used the Armor in Poland in Yugo - it can get back next round in time for Sealion.
    This was my original intention, the armor went to WGerm because I knew no armor would survive on the French coast and leaving it in Wgerm means it can be shipped out G2.  However you’re probably right, and Germany can still load up 3 inf 3 art for G2 naval threats.

    UK1 - I’d take out the Italian Destroyer/Transport combo with a Brit Destroyer/Fighter/Tac Bomber. Then you have the flexibility to park your fleet elsewhere.
    that dd is needed to block for the British fleet off Gibraltar however.

    Even though I commented earlier on a different UK purchase, 9 Infantry is smart.

    Noncoms look reasonable to me.

    ITA1 - yes, I would also kill off the British as you did, but if I were the British I wouldn’t have given you the targets. And are you saving S France for G2? I’d let Italy have it, personally, and collect on it the first turn, and get closer to your NO.
    Are you saying to forgo the blocker in sz94?  Can the UK fleet survive without it?  If so then I agree and UK should have moved that dd with the fleet.  I forgot SFrance, it wasn’t crucial to my plans so I skipped it on my board.

    OK! It was cool to go through your moves and think about them. I also know it’s good to get some feedback.
    Thx for the feedback, I;ll go back through and edit my moves so they are smoother, I’ll make sure to update the stats too, but it’ll prolly take a day.


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