This is an issue I wish the game by vanilla would just let you turn over control of territory to your allies as this happened a lot between Germany and Italy. I have allowed enemies forces to capture a territory just so I can turn it over to another.
Is Germany virtually guaranteed the odds G3 on sealion?
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@Cow:
Why is Japan not going to war? Makes it easier for the US to liberate UK, you dont want to do it right away anyway, but having less pressure in the pacific gives the US 2 rounds of freedom to get itself on london.
It is so much easier in the pacific for USA when all he has to do is build 2 subs 1 dd every round to keep japan down.
How does the US keep Japan down with just 2 SS, 1 DD per turn?
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@Cow:
Why is Japan not going to war? Makes it easier for the US to liberate UK, you dont want to do it right away anyway, but having less pressure in the pacific gives the US 2 rounds of freedom to get itself on london.
It is so much easier in the pacific for USA when all he has to do is build 2 subs 1 dd every round to keep japan down.
The theory is to keep Britain isolated and the us low on production and not able to reinforce Britain on the turn the UK is captured, this leaves the axis time to maneuver into a position. With the us out if the war, the axis control all the movement on the board and have only 1 target to hit.
Japan can still maneuver. Are their any maneuvers Japan can do that the US HAS to respond to? That was one of my main questions. The other one is, can Japan maneuver and virtually guarantee itself the odds to take India J3/J4. If that’s possible, that’s the UK eliminated before the other two allies are even in.the war. I don’t see how they can recover. But of there is really nothing statistically the U.K. can do to get favorable odds on both fronts (even it’s just 51% for the axis) by a mad rush from the Axis, I see no reason not to do that every single time as an axis player.
Can the The isolated UK can be virtually wiped out by the axis before the other allies even enter? And if so that probably means a couple of things:
- Italy is not insignificant in the early game.
- Italy and Japan have linked up in the middle east and are now a force Russia has to think about. That should be a big enough that to Russia to keep her busy while a strong Germany makes adjustments. Germany also had a lot of translated that can hit Russia hard and deep into get territory. Russian troops are still going to be in a conservative position.
- The U.S.A. Is on its cost and unable to reach UK for 2 turns. It also has to build a strong enough navy to withstand the German air force and possibly even a combined German Italian navy. That’s money not going into ground units. If one is playing a kill an isolated UK, and Japan can get planes on Normandy by J4, that adds to an even bigger headache.
Even if Japan can’t kill UK Pacific I still wonder if it can do this:
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hit Russia. Either by hitting Russia in the far east J1, our hitting China particularly hard (1 factory and 2 bombers ought to be enough to contain India) and being at the USSRS back door on J4, while gobbling up a few far east territories before that.
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Force America to build heavy in the Pacific
Either way, Like I said Japan is a mystery to me on how to optimize sea lion.
But even if the U.K. can protect itself with favorable odds, this seems to be what’s happening:
- Germany buys nothing G1, lands planes in tobrook and Italy. This costs Germany nothing, and cripples the allies.
- UK has to pull fighters from India, and leaves Italian Bb/Tran alone, withdraws navy from med.
I don’t get how the allies survive that opening. India is as good as dead, Italy it’s going to swell, and Russia is going to get crushed quickly.
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Hey dondoolee,
a different approach could be:
G1 standard opening attacks, buy two bmbrs and arm.
G2 bomb London with all four bmbrs and stukas left
(AB and NB as well as the IC) buy two to three TT’s two bmbrs and art or arm plus a DD.
Block access from Gib with a DD placed after purchasing it.
G3 use now your invasing forces plus bmbrs and get London.
Favorable odds with combined Airpower.BUT like knp7765 allready said…
Hey dondoolee,
I think you are not taking something else into account. While Germany may have a good chance of achieving Sealion round 3 in most circumstances, just how good a victory will it be for them? In a lot of instances, it may be a pyrrhic victory for Germany. I mean, say Germany takes London but only has a tank and a few planes left over. Sure they get to plunder London’s treasury, but like calvinhobbesliker said they will be weak on the continent and Russia will just be licking it’s chops.
I used to enjoy doing Sealion but in later games I rarely do that because unless everything goes right for Germany (no planes lost, good dice), it usually costs them too much so they lose in the long run.In the end it cost you. You will figure it out after the battle is over how much exactly.
Every Ftr, Bmbr,stuka etc you loose will be missed on the russian soil.
And Russia will come after you!AeV
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Just as a rules clarification for this, if Germany does Sealion, Russia’s not allowed to attack unless Germany is successful at taking London, right? Otherwise Russia isn’t allowed to attack until round 4?
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Just as a rules clarification for this, if Germany does Sealion, Russia’s not allowed to attack unless Germany is successful at taking London, right? Otherwise Russia isn’t allowed to attack until round 4?
Correct. London must fall.
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Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).
12 transports on G3. All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion. And it almost guarantees you will lose the war. Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.
I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question. The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3? That is the question. I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.
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Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).
12 transports on G3. All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion. And it almost guarantees you will lose the war. Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.
I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question. The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3? That is the question. I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.
According to my calculations, Germany can just barely pull off a G2 Sealion, which would be more ideal.
Ger starts with 5 ftrs and 5 tac bombers and 2 bombers. Assuming Ger only loses 2 ftrs and the rest subs on G1, they will be in a good position on G2.
G1 purchase: 4 trn (28 IPC’s).
When taking out the Royal Navy, they may scramble fighters. But this isn’t so bad, because the fighters may then be lost in the naval battle. If UK scrambles fighters, then lose ftr for ftr. Then there will be less defending London. Save the battleship!
Use subs in sz 117 and sz 118 to take out the Canadian des and trn so UK can’t reinforce with Canadian troops.
Place all 4 trn with 1 trn that you start with in sz 113 with the cru and battleship you start with. You need the battleship there to protect the trn from the UK bmb. Position troops and tanks to load onto trns next turn.
UK1: UK builds 9 inf, moves ftr from Gibraltar to London, moves Scotland units to London.
If UK blocks the Ger navy with the cru from sz 91, take it out with Italian ftrs and bmb.
Thus, on G2, attack!
UK should have in London (if they didn’t scramble ftrs)
15 inf, 1 mech inf
1 bmb
5 ftrs
for a total defense of 53Ger should be attacking with (if they only lost 1 ftr to AAA)
5 inf
5 tanks
2 ftrs
5 tac bombers
2 bmb
for a total attack of 54
plus Ger gets a cru and battleship bombardment.Thus Ger should barely win a G2 Sealion.
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Well, Britain begins with 6 inf, 1 mech, 5 AAA, 4 ftr, 1 strat. Let’s assume the UK buys 6 inf, 1 fighter and does Taranto, removing the bomber and a fighter. Then, after UK1, London will contain 12 inf, 1 mech, 5 AAA, 4 ftr and collects 33, allowing a build of 9 inf, 1 tank for a total of 21 inf, 1 mech, 1 tank, 5 AAA, 4 ftr. We’ll assume Germany sinks the Canadian ships and so the Canadians can’t reinforce London.
Against this, if Germany brings in its 12 planes plus 9 loaded transports (inf+tank), that gives about a 50/50 shot at London. The odds only slightly decrease if 3 tanks are changed to art (since Germany will have 6 tanks in Paris, and its other 3 tanks in the East somewhere). However, Germany will need to divert planes to prevent a scramble against the landing, since a BB+CC aren’t likely to defeat 3 defending fighters. Furthermore, you probably want a greater than 50/50 shot if you’re going to risk so much money…
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Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).
12 transports on G3. All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion. And it almost guarantees you will lose the war. Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.
I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question. The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3? That is the question. I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.
According to my calculations, Germany can just barely pull off a G2 Sealion, which would be more ideal.
Ger starts with 5 ftrs and 5 tac bombers and 2 bombers. Assuming Ger only loses 2 ftrs and the rest subs on G1, they will be in a good position on G2.
G1 purchase: 4 trn (28 IPC’s).
When taking out the Royal Navy, they may scramble fighters. But this isn’t so bad, because the fighters may then be lost in the naval battle. If UK scrambles fighters, then lose ftr for ftr. Then there will be less defending London. Save the battleship!
Use subs in sz 117 and sz 118 to take out the Canadian des and trn so UK can’t reinforce with Canadian troops.
Place all 4 trn with 1 trn that you start with in sz 113 with the cru and battleship you start with. You need the battleship there to protect the trn from the UK bmb. Position troops and tanks to load onto trns next turn.
UK1: UK builds 9 inf, moves ftr from Gibraltar to London, moves Scotland units to London.
If UK blocks the Ger navy with the cru from sz 91, take it out with Italian ftrs and bmb.
Thus, on G2, attack!
UK should have in London (if they didn’t scramble ftrs)
15 inf, 1 mech inf
1 bmb
5 ftrs
for a total defense of 53Ger should be attacking with (if they only lost 1 ftr to AAA)
5 inf
5 tanks
2 ftrs
5 tac bombers
2 bmb
for a total attack of 54
plus Ger gets a cru and battleship bombardment.Thus Ger should barely win a G2 Sealion.
You forgot the 5 British AAA, which reduce your chances to 1.5%.
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You forgot the 5 British AAA, which reduce your chances to 1.5%.
Are you sure? According to the 2nd edition rules, you don’t roll more AAA dice than the number of aircraft. page 29.
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You forgot the 5 British AAA, which reduce your chances to 1.5%.
Are you sure? According to the 2nd edition rules, you don’t roll more AAA dice than the number of aircraft. page 29.
Yes, but they can be used as cannon fodder before the infantry die. And since they’re likely to kill 1-2 planes, Germany’s hit points are suddenly lower than the UK’s.
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Germany buys 1 AC and all transports (total of 12).
12 transports on G3. All that economy (11 transports purchased) over two turns almost guarantees a successful sea lion. And it almost guarantees you will lose the war. Sure you’ll get all that money from the UK, but it cost you 88 IPCs to do it.
I am just a newbie but I don’t think you are asking the right question. The question you should be asking is this: what is the minimum amount of Germany transport navy purchased that is needed to get a 51% success rate of sea lion on G3? That is the question. I think spending 88 IPCs on helpless US bomber targets as the Soviets roll over your entirely depleted Eastern front, isn’t worth taking the UK out for two turns.
According to my calculations, Germany can just barely pull off a G2 Sealion, which would be more ideal.
Ger starts with 5 ftrs and 5 tac bombers and 2 bombers. Assuming Ger only loses 2 ftrs and the rest subs on G1, they will be in a good position on G2.
G1 purchase: 4 trn (28 IPC’s).
When taking out the Royal Navy, they may scramble fighters. But this isn’t so bad, because the fighters may then be lost in the naval battle. If UK scrambles fighters, then lose ftr for ftr. Then there will be less defending London. Save the battleship!
Use subs in sz 117 and sz 118 to take out the Canadian des and trn so UK can’t reinforce with Canadian troops.
Place all 4 trn with 1 trn that you start with in sz 113 with the cru and battleship you start with. You need the battleship there to protect the trn from the UK bmb. Position troops and tanks to load onto trns next turn.
UK1: UK builds 9 inf, moves ftr from Gibraltar to London, moves Scotland units to London.
If UK blocks the Ger navy with the cru from sz 91, take it out with Italian ftrs and bmb.
Thus, on G2, attack!
UK should have in London (if they didn’t scramble ftrs)
15 inf, 1 mech inf
1 bmb
5 ftrs
for a total defense of 53Ger should be attacking with (if they only lost 1 ftr to AAA)
5 inf
5 tanks
2 ftrs
5 tac bombers
2 bmb
for a total attack of 54
plus Ger gets a cru and battleship bombardment.Thus Ger should barely win a G2 Sealion.
you should really use a battlesim. You are forgetting the value of hitpoints.
If we forget about the AAs then the germans have a total of 19 units, while the british have 22 units.The number of units you have is much more important than the number of battledice you have.
Running the battle on a battle sim gives germnay about 2% (1-3%) chance of winning.
adding the AAs as well, and the picture is even grimmer. between 0.2 and 1.6 % of winning.
One thing that might suprise you is the value of volume. If you have 12 ftrs defending a terr and I attack with only infs. I only need about 24 infs to have a 50% odds of killing all of the fighters. To see why the 2-1 ratio is correct, we can do an easy calculation.
round 1.
the fighters have 124/6 hits = 8 hits on the infs.
The infs have 241/6 hits = 4 hits on the fighters.
that means that the fighters lost 4/12 = 1/3 figters.
the infs lost 8/28 = 1/3 infs.
Which means that both sides lost and equal percentage of their fightingpower.The actual formula for thse kinds of battles where pure infs attacks a pure force is:
inf vs inf sqrt(1) to Sqrt(2) -> 1,41 infs attacking per inf defending
Inf v tanks : Sqrt(1) to sqrt(3) –> 1.7 infs attacking per tank defending.In axis volume is king.
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I suppose the best way to do Sealion is if it’s a surprise. i.e. buy 2 bombers and 2 inf on G1 and move land units east to make it look like you’re going after Russia, so the UK player spends their first round money on sea units, then on G2 spend all your France loot on transports and attack London in G3.
Of course, the second time you do this your opponent will see it and build 9 inf in London on UK1. But then you just go after Russia!
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I suppose the best way to do Sealion is if it’s a surprise. i.e. buy 2 bombers and 2 inf on G1 and move land units east to make it look like you’re going after Russia, so the UK player spends their first round money on sea units, then on G2 spend all your France loot on transports and attack London in G3.
Of course, the second time you do this your opponent will see it and build 9 inf in London on UK1. But then you just go after Russia!
I would think that most UK players will always start UK1 by counting the number of units germany can have for a G3 seaslion. Then buy 9 infs every time. (Unless germany for some reason lost its navy in G1 and the british one is intact)
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6 inf 1 fighter is more common, as has been said elsewhere. It’s still strong enough on its own, and the fighter is far more flexible, especially UK 3+.
I only see/do 9 inf buys when Germany buys transports (plural) on G1, or if you’re super paranoid and Germany saves 30 G1.
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