12L LuckyLindy vs Jennifer Game 1

[Jennifer]

Japan:

Buy(59+1 Infantry)

• 1 Aircraft Carrier
• 2 Fighters
• 2 Destroyers
• 1 Transport

Combat Moves:

8 Infantry, 2 Artillery, Armor from Carolines to W. USA
8 Fighters, 4 Aircraft Carriers, 6 Destroyers, Cruiser, Battleship, 6 Transports from SZ 51 to SZ 56
3 Bombers from Japan to SZ 56 (May land on Hawaii)
Infnatry from Hawaii to W. USA

Combat:

Attacker:
Rolls: 4@1 6@2 9@3 4@4; Total Hits: 134@1: (1, 6, 2, 5)6@2: (1, 4, 6, 5, 4, 1)9@3: (1, 5, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6)4@4: (3, 1, 2, 3)
Defender:
Rolls: 1@1 9@2 11@4; Total Hits: 81@1: (2)9@2: (4, 4, 4, 1, 1, 6, 5, 2, 5)11@4: (1, 6, 6, 4, 6, 5, 1, 1, 5, 6, 4)

[Jennifer]

Attacker: 8 Fighters, 3 Bombers, 3 Carriesr, Damaged Battleship, Cruiser:
Rolls: 3@1 9@3 4@4; Total Hits: 73@1: (1, 4, 4)9@3: (1, 6, 1, 3, 1, 3, 6, 5, 4)4@4: (5, 6, 1, 6)
Defender: Damaged Battleship, 8 Fighters, 2 Transports, Infantry
Rolls: 9@4; Total Hits: 69@4: (2, 4, 4, 5, 6, 4, 4, 4, 6)

[Jennifer]

Attacker: 2 Carriers, Damaged Battleship, 4 Fighters, 3 Bombers
Rolls: 2@1 4@3 4@4; Total Hits: 52@1: (3, 4)4@3: (5, 1, 3, 2)4@4: (6, 1, 5, 1)
Defender: Damaged Battleship, 2 Transports, Infantry, Fighter
Rolls: 2@4; Total Hits: 12@4: (4, 6)

[Jennifer]

Taken with Damaged Battleship, 2 Carriers, 5 Fighters, Bomber, 6 Transports

USA taken with 9 Infantry, 2 Artillery, Armor (undefended)

I dont see a marker for damaged battleships - they automatically repair, right?

NCM:

3 Infantry, Artillery from Evenki to Yakur
Infantry from Hopeh to Suiyuan
Infantry from Hopeh to Sikang
2 Infantry from Hopen to Yunnan
Fighter from Hopeh to Japan
Bomber, Fighter from SZ 56 to Hawaii

Build: Aircraft Carrier, 2 Fighters, 2 Destroyers, Transport in SZ 62
Build: Infantry in Japan

Collect: 2 Saved + 15 NO + 51 TT = 68 IPC

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_06cJ.AAM

[LuckyLindy]

Cmndr Jennifer:

Now I see that you had two extra bombers hidden in Japan (the number was snuck in under the tanks).  Not sure if you did that on purpose or not but that sure changes the game.  All I would have had to do was leave a destroyer in Z53.

[LuckyLindy]

I think you should look at the map which had your bombers hidden under the tanks in Japan and let me know if you think it was fair.  If you agree that the bombers were hidden, will you allow a destroyer to be placed in Z53 and for you to do your Japan turn again?

Cheers

[Jennifer]

@Cmdr:

Japan:

Buy(56)

• 3 Strategic Bombers
• 5 Infantry
• 1 Armor

The only legal place to put these units was in Japan.  I stated I had purchased 1 too many infantry and was retaining that one for this round to be placed here:

@Cmdr:

bought 1 too many infantry

You had (with what I brought, which was every scrap of war material that could make it) 65.4% odds for the defense.  It is very plausible that you would not have moved the destroyer back to the coast of W. America because you already had sufficient defense odds.

Further, without the destroyer, Australia would be in Japanese hands.  Thus, it is logical that you would have moved the destroyer there to prevent Japan from getting Australia and getting their National Objective.

Personally, I don’t see a reason to change the battle, but you can always appeal to DarthMaximus for a ruling, he’s running the Anniversary League.

[LuckyLindy]

Yes you listed your purchase and yes JAP was the only place they could be placed, but I only look at maps, especially when I WAS this far ahead in a game.  Since I did not see that the 3 was hidden under the tank (whether it was intentional or not), you had 65% odds to kill my entire fleet in Z56.  I could have both blocked in Z46 AND Z53, it was not one or the other, since I had 4 destroyers in Z46.  I am tempted to just give you the game since I do not think you are actually considering the request and have not even admitted that the 3 on the bombers was hidden, but I will go ahead and continue, mainly because now that you have a major hold in the WUS, it could actually make this game a challenge for me where it would not previously have been one.

Cheers

[LuckyLindy]

OK.  I just wanted to ask nicely for something that was obviously due to a hidden number of bombers.  I was happy to give you a 20% shot on the fleet but not a 65% shot.  In addition you got fantastic dice results so good for you.  Better step up your game a few notches though if you want to have a chance in this one (or try some more unit hiding tricks).

Britain turn 6

Purchase

44 IPC

3 infantry
5 transports

Combat Moves

NWE (2 infantry) v infantry (FIN), infantry (GBR) unload in Z7, 2 fighters (Z5), fighter (Z3), *support shots with 2 battleships
SUD (infantry) v artillery (IND), 2 bombers (SUD)

dice

NWE
A - 2 infantry, 3 fighters, 2 battleships
Rolls: 2@1 3@3 2@4; Total Hits: 22@1: (6, 4)3@3: (4, 5, 1)2@4: (5, 2)
D - 2 infantry
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (5, 1)

[LuckyLindy]

NWE taken with infantry, 3 fighters

BUR
A - artillery, 2 bombers
Rolls: 1@2 2@4; Total Hits: 21@2: (6)2@4: (4, 2)
D - infantry
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (4)

[LuckyLindy]

BUR taken with artillery, 2 bombers

Noncombat Moves

2 bombers from BUR to IND
transport from Z35 to Z39
destroyer from Z38 to Z39
tank, bomber from WCA to EUS
AA gun from NWY to FIN
2 infantry, 2 tanks from FIN to GBR
2 transports, submarine, destroyer, cruiser, 2 ac from Z5 to Z7
3 fighters from NWE to Z7
AA gun from SUD to EAF

Mobilize

3 infantry in GBR
5 transports in Z7

Income

39 + 5 NO = 44

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_06dB.AAM

[Jennifer]

@LuckyLindy:

Yes you listed your purchase and yes JAP was the only place they could be placed, but I only look at maps, especially when I WAS this far ahead in a game.  Since I did not see that the 3 was hidden under the tank (whether it was intentional or not), you had 65% odds to kill my entire fleet in Z56.  I could have both blocked in Z46 AND Z53, it was not one or the other, since I had 4 destroyers in Z46.  I am tempted to just give you the game since I do not think you are actually considering the request and have not even admitted that the 3 on the bombers was hidden, but I will go ahead and continue, mainly because now that you have a major hold in the WUS, it could actually make this game a challenge for me where it would not previously have been one.

Cheers

A) I apologize if you did not see the bombers - if I want to hide something, I try to move it to the corner of a map, subterfuge, after all, is a valid act in a state of war!  In this case, it was not intended.  Sorry.

B)  You had 65% odds against me.  I only had 34% odds to beat you, and got lucky.  Had I failed, it would be game over.

[Jennifer]

Italy:

Buy(10)

• 2 Infantry, Artillery

Combat Moves:

Armor from Libya to Algeria to Libya
Armor from Libya to Egypt to Suda
2 Infantry, 2 Fighters, Cruiser, Battleship (can I get the second cruiser in this game?) to Bulgaria
(both transpots to SZ 16)

Combat:
Attacker:
Rolls: 2@1 3@3 1@4; Total Hits: 32@1: (5, 1)3@3: (6, 3, 5)1@4: (3)
Defender:
Rolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 12@2: (1, 4)

[LuckyLindy]

I don’t know how you are getting that.  You were about 65% to win that battle.  And yes you got quite lucky, but still you are behind.

Cheers

[Jennifer]

2 Fig to Italy
2 Inf to Balkans

Build: 2 Infantry, Artillery in Italy

Collect 13 + 5 NO = 18

---

1)  Question was pretaining to whether or not you need 1 invading ground unit per shore bombardment - in 1940 you do, in AA50?

2)  Just for the record, I still expect to lose this game, despite my

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_06eI.AAM

[Jennifer]

@LuckyLindy:

I don’t know how you are getting that. � You were about 65% to win that battle. � And yes you got quite lucky, but still you are behind.

Cheers

’

Average outcome of 10,000 battles
Attacker: 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. v. Defender: 10 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car, 1 Bat. Link to or bookmark this scenario.
Average battle duration: 3.5 rounds of combat

Overall %*: A. survives: 34.5% D. survives: 63.9% No one survives: 1.7%
–------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overall %*: A. survives: 34.5% D. survives: 63.9% No one survives: 1.7%

• percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. The average results from above are highlighted in charts below, while the median result (equal odds of getting a worse or better result) is written in red. If shown, the 1st and 2nd standard deviations about the mean are represented in blue and light blue. Attacker results:

---

Probability % # units / losses
  0.03% 16: 7 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Fig, 6 Des. : 58 IPCs
  0.03% 15: 6 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 2 Fig, 6 Des. : 68 IPCs
  0.12% 14: 5 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 3 Fig, 6 Des. : 78 IPCs
  0.42% 13: 4 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 4 Fig, 6 Des. : 88 IPCs
  0.64% 12: 3 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 5 Fig, 6 Des. : 98 IPCs
  1.06% 11: 2 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 6 Fig, 6 Des. : 108 IPCs
  1.6% 10: 1 Fig, 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 7 Fig, 6 Des. : 118 IPCs
  2.37% 9: 3 Bom, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 6 Des. : 128 IPCs
  3.54% 8: 3 Bom, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 6 Des, 1 Cru. : 140 IPCs
  3.43% 7: 2 Bom, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 1 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru. : 152 IPCs
  4.35% 6: 1 Bom, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 2 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru. : 164 IPCs
  4.67% 5: 4 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru. : 176 IPCs
  3.53% 4: 3 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 1 Car. : 190 IPCs
  3.31% 3: 2 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 2 Car. : 204 IPCs
  2.89% 2: 1 Car, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 3 Car. : 218 IPCs
  2.46% 1: 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 4 Car. : 232 IPCs
  65.55% 0: no units. 8 Fig, 3 Bom, 6 Des, 1 Cru, 4 Car, 1 Bat. : 252 IPCs

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Defender results:

Probability % # units / losses
  0.02% 16: 10 Fig, 5 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des. : 38 IPCs
  0.05% 15: 10 Fig, 4 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 1 Car. : 52 IPCs
  0.22% 14: 10 Fig, 3 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 2 Car. : 66 IPCs
  0.51% 13: 10 Fig, 2 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 3 Car. : 80 IPCs
  0.92% 12: 10 Fig, 1 Car, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 4 Car. : 94 IPCs
  1.92% 11: 10 Fig, 1 Bat. 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 108 IPCs
  2.7% 10: 9 Fig, 1 Bat. 1 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 118 IPCs
  4.62% 9: 8 Fig, 1 Bat. 2 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 128 IPCs
  6.27% 8: 7 Fig, 1 Bat. 3 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 138 IPCs
  7.5% 7: 6 Fig, 1 Bat. 4 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 148 IPCs
  8.03% 6: 5 Fig, 1 Bat. 5 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 158 IPCs
  8.34% 5: 4 Fig, 1 Bat. 6 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 168 IPCs
  7.52% 4: 3 Fig, 1 Bat. 7 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 178 IPCs
  6.41% 3: 2 Fig, 1 Bat. 8 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 188 IPCs
  5.33% 2: 1 Fig, 1 Bat. 9 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 198 IPCs
  3.53% 1: 1 Bat. 10 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car. : 208 IPCs
  36.11% 0: no units. 10 Fig, 1 Sub, 4 Des, 5 Car, 1 Bat. : 228 IPCs

[Jennifer]

That;s frood’s report.  I don’t trust dskelly, they’re almost 100% wrong and I don’t know why.

[Jennifer]

Literally forget to move the tiles from Bulgaria to Italy for the 2 fighters.

New map.

L12_LuckyLindy_v_Jen_Game01_06eI.AAM

[LuckyLindy]

Who knows for sure.  I think you were favored, but either way, I never would have knowingly given you more than a 20% chance in that battle.  You are correct, you have a long way to go in this one to get back in the game.

Cheers

[LuckyLindy]

America turn 6

Purchase

47 IPC

11 infantry
artillery

China gets 1 infantry

Combat Moves

sbr WUS with 2 bombers (WCA) should have bombed with the Brits as well, took me a bit to realize it.  Not used to bombing WUS as the allies  :lol:

China

HUP (infantry) v 6 infantry (NIN)
SIK (infantry) v infantry (CHI), infantry (NIN)

dice

WUS bombing
Rolls: 2@6; Total Hits: 22@6: (1, 4)

HUP
A - 6 infantry
Rolls: 6@1; Total Hits: 16@1: (6, 4, 3, 2, 5, 1)
D - infantry
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2)