Interesting analysis Akreider and AxisRoll.
Agree that to some extent the discussion is moot, because Egypt is the most popular place for a bid placement. However maybe people will stop placing in Egypt, hoping to lure the Axis into a more ambitious G1 with greater risks, or simply thinking their bid is better placed elsewhere.
I hit Egy in low luck games if there’s no bid there, but have stopped doing it in dice games. My perspective is that if the overall cost-benefit tally between the 2 approaches is close, then I gotta prefer the more conservative approach. AA44 already made this point well above, and I agree–-a cautious approach to Axis in AA50 is smart because map dynamics and national objectives are favorable over the long game, UNLESS Allies can hit a major break and shut Axis out of Africa or dominate the Pacific.
But these variables could easily change if Allied strategies improve or average bids go up, which would make an early game 67% risk more attractive for Axis.