Thanks for the upvote

It’d be fun to train an AI using pro games. I wrote an AI once, but it was for Connect Four (a very simple game) and many years ago.

The 90 second delay for doing a second post on this forum is extremely annoying. Please remove it.

Also how can I get rid of it? I’m using my old forum account with 200+ posts from 2007 and for some reason I’m being treated as a potential spammer.

Here we might have another different view point. For me, if you have the choice between a battle with 51% win rate and positive TUV (even +1) vs doing nothing, so long as it doesn’t have a negative impact on your position - you take the battle.

You take all battles with positive expected outcome. And of course you’d favor the 52% win battle with 0.1 more TUV over the 51% one.

Unlike some/most gambling (I gamble on politics at PredictIt), there aren’t any “house” fees - so the tiniest imaginable edge is useful.

Unless you expect to beat your opponent by a large margin, in which case taking fights that are only slightly favorable to you might be detrimental.

The critical fact about attacking with 50/50 odds, is that with strategic withdrawal the battle simulators might be under-estimating your TUV gain (it’d be interesting if someone were to write a calculator that would handle that!). Admitedly this is a rare situation and you are much better off attacking at 95%+ win odds most of the time.

Uh oh. Different sounds bad

Has anyone made a dice simulator for G40?

This is my second ever Sea Lion attempt. First was in the Europe 1940. Hmm, might be easier for the US to take it back in Global. I feel sad for the transports!

I see the Triple A one. I like some of the functionality/stats of the older one more.

I saw that potential problem, but wanted to bail out the Italian fleet. Though perhaps the cost is too high? I’m thinking I’ve got a 5% chance of winning this game.

@Imperious-Leader The proposed model wouldn’t be that effective at handling stupid moves, and mistakes.

You could partially control for mistakes with a variable that is based on the player’s league ranking (if they are in the league).

Me1945 (Axis) over akreider2 (Allies). Bid +8 (too low).
https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/35316/20l-me1945-4-vs-akreider2-allies-8-bm3/67?page=3

I concede the game.

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 5

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 5

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 8 infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        1 mech_infantry moved from Russia to Archangel
        1 fighter moved from Russia to Archangel
        1 infantry moved from Volgograd to Rostov
        1 infantry moved from Volgograd to Rostov
        1 infantry moved from Volgograd to Tambov
        1 infantry moved from Russia to Tambov
        1 fighter moved from Russia to Tambov
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Russia to Rostov

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Tambov
            Russians attack with 1 fighter and 2 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 mech_infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 2 infantry in Tambov, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Tambov, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Tambov
                Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Tambov, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Tambov, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 infantry in Tambov, round 4 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Tambov, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Tambov
            Russians win with 1 fighter remaining. Battle score for attacker is -2
            Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 mech_infantry
        Battle in Archangel
            Russians attack with 1 fighter and 1 mech_infantry
            Germans defend with 1 infantry
                Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 mech_infantry in Archangel, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 infantry in Archangel, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Germans lost in Archangel
            Russians win, taking Archangel from Germans with 1 fighter and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Germans: 1 infantry
        Battle in Rostov
            Russians attack with 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber
            Germans defend with 1 mech_infantry
                Russians roll dice for 2 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Rostov, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Rostov
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Rostov, round 3 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Rostov, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Rostov, round 4 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Rostov, round 4 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber in Rostov, round 5 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 mech_infantry in Rostov, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 mech_infantry owned by the Germans lost in Rostov
            Russians win, taking Rostov from Germans with 1 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 1
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 mech_infantry

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        1 fighter moved from Tambov to Russia
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Rostov to Russia
        1 fighter moved from Archangel to Russia
        6 infantry moved from Novosibirsk to Samara
        2 aaGuns and 12 infantry moved from Timguska to Novosibirsk
        1 submarine moved from 111 Sea Zone to 125 Sea Zone

    Place Units - Russians
        1 artillery, 1 bomber and 6 infantry placed in Russia
        2 infantry placed in Russia

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Russians collect 24 PUs; end with 24 PUs
        Trigger Russians 7 Great Patriotic War: Russians met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 27 PUs
        Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 29 PUs
        Trigger Russians 3 Siberia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 31 PUs
        Trigger Russians 1 Lend Lease: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 33 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans : 0.33
Russians : -2.67

Savegame

I think the Russian SB is both a tiny amount of money, and a fine investment - so long as Germany isn’t going for a fast run on the capital (which you weren’t).

It looks like a big problem with BM3 is that Russia has very little to do, at least in the first 5-6 rounds and maybe more (and 80-90% of the Allies strategic thinking goes into the UK/US megaturn). Russia cannot counterattack the German (plus Italian) stack unless you let them do it. So whether Russia buys all infantry, a mix of infantry and artilleries, or the occasional plane - doesn’t really matter.

If you have good players on both sides it looks like it is too hard / not worth it for Germany to take Moscow before turn 8 or even later, and it isn’t worth it for Russia to try to counter-attack the German stack until then.

Also, what do you think I should have done better? I think I should have gone heavy with the US into the Atlantic (at least heavy enough to have a convoy going) as the Allies have to threaten invasions into Europe and N. Africa (where the UK has a very short supply chain into valuable countries, and there are also several NOs that are important).

Up until the German invasion of Iraq, I recall that I was winning most of the medium sized battles (is this true or is my memory bad?), and I was doing relatively well on the Total Unit Value. But my positioning mistake seems to have outweighed all of that and your income is just too much.

Let me know if you’d be interested in switching sides and doing a 9 bid.

Trulpen (Axis) over Akreider2 (Allies). Bid of 9. Despite the Allies winning a lot of the small battles. I think we need to do a 20 bid. Though I also did the mistake of under-committing with the US to the Atlantic when I saw Germany building a navy.

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/35374/l20-1-trulpen-x-vs-akreider2-a-9-bm3/152?page=7

I resign.

TripleA Turn Summary: French round 6

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 1 fighter and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 infantry moved from New Guinea to Dutch New Guinea
              ANZAC take Dutch New Guinea from Japanese

    Combat - ANZAC

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        2 aaGuns, 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Queensland to New South Wales
        2 submarines moved from 62 Sea Zone to 63 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 54 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Queensland to Hawaiian Islands
        3 fighters moved from Queensland to 26 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to Egypt

    Place Units - ANZAC
        1 fighter and 1 infantry placed in New South Wales

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 12 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 15 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 18 PUs

    Combat Move - French

    Non Combat Move - French
        1 destroyer moved from 81 Sea Zone to 71 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: ANZAC round 6

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 6

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 1 fighter and 1 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        1 infantry moved from New Guinea to Dutch New Guinea
              ANZAC take Dutch New Guinea from Japanese

    Combat - ANZAC

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        2 aaGuns, 1 artillery and 5 infantry moved from Queensland to New South Wales
        2 submarines moved from 62 Sea Zone to 63 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 54 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Queensland to Hawaiian Islands
        3 fighters moved from Queensland to 26 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to Egypt

    Place Units - ANZAC
        1 fighter and 1 infantry placed in New South Wales

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 12 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 3 Pacific Supply Lines: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 15 PUs
        Objective ANZAC 2 Control Strategic Islands: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 18 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame