@akreider2 said in Statistical Model for Predicting the Winner:
As a baseline test, let me know if you can find a game where the Axis player has equal or greater total unit value to the Allies and isn’t winning.
Alternatively, can you find one where the Allies have a total unit value of 400 more than the Axis and they aren’t winning (this latter might be possible if the total unit value is very high)?
In 1942.2 i usually win from behind because im keen on build centers being in the direct area of fighting, which totally dictates what Clausewitz would characterize as mass, economy of force, and objective among his eight principles of war. A simplistic “counting” and judgement based on IPC values is too static. I was recently down by about 115 points and won as axis. ( Points being total aggregate attack factors and im sure IPC values aren’t far behind).
Another point is this is a game of dice. In fact roll buckets of dice! The point is the dice server they use is slanted ( even if they deny it it is messed up)
So… im fighting a slanted dice server and having to deal with a piss poor partner who loses his position right off the bat . He was Japan and I’m Germany.
I kept USA/UK away till round 8 with subs, but I had the need for more ground pounders so i can finish off Russia, which happened. The collapse of them left a void where Japan could get some money and Germany was at 51IPC, but The Allies had ALOT more costly pieces, but they lost anyway.
As far as the 400 number ( which is a huge advantage) However if the Axis have 2000 IPC worth of land units, and the Allies have 2400 in Naval units, your idea is shot down. Like i said your just comparing all units total value in IPC and not taking account of types and force projection, the study is faulty.