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    Best posts made by akreider2

    • RE: 90 Second Delay is Extremely Annoying

      Thanks for the upvote 😃

      posted in Website/Forum Discussion
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Statistical Model for Predicting the Winner

      It’d be fun to train an AI using pro games. I wrote an AI once, but it was for Connect Four (a very simple game) and many years ago.

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • 90 Second Delay is Extremely Annoying

      The 90 second delay for doing a second post on this forum is extremely annoying. Please remove it.

      Also how can I get rid of it? I’m using my old forum account with 200+ posts from 2007 and for some reason I’m being treated as a potential spammer.

      posted in Website/Forum Discussion
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer)

      Here we might have another different view point. For me, if you have the choice between a battle with 51% win rate and positive TUV (even +1) vs doing nothing, so long as it doesn’t have a negative impact on your position - you take the battle.

      You take all battles with positive expected outcome. And of course you’d favor the 52% win battle with 0.1 more TUV over the 51% one.

      Unlike some/most gambling (I gamble on politics at PredictIt), there aren’t any ā€œhouseā€ fees - so the tiniest imaginable edge is useful.

      Unless you expect to beat your opponent by a large margin, in which case taking fights that are only slightly favorable to you might be detrimental.

      The critical fact about attacking with 50/50 odds, is that with strategic withdrawal the battle simulators might be under-estimating your TUV gain (it’d be interesting if someone were to write a calculator that would handle that!). Admitedly this is a rare situation and you are much better off attacking at 95%+ win odds most of the time.

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Akreider2 (Axis) vs Wizmark (Allies + 12) BM3

      Uh oh. Different sounds bad 😃

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • Simulator / Calculator

      Has anyone made a dice simulator for G40?

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Akreider2 (Axis) vs Wizmark (Allies + 12) BM3

      This is my second ever Sea Lion attempt. First was in the Europe 1940. Hmm, might be easier for the US to take it back in Global. I feel sad for the transports!

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Simulator / Calculator

      I see the Triple A one. I like some of the functionality/stats of the older one more.

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Akreider2 (Axis) vs Wizmark (Allies + 12) BM3

      I saw that potential problem, but wanted to bail out the Italian fleet. Though perhaps the cost is too high? I’m thinking I’ve got a 5% chance of winning this game.

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Statistical Model for Predicting the Winner

      @Imperious-Leader The proposed model wouldn’t be that effective at handling stupid moves, and mistakes.

      You could partially control for mistakes with a variable that is based on the player’s league ranking (if they are in the league).

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: League General Discussion Thread

      As the lowest ranked Tier 1 (3.5 avg, but just won another game and am currently winning another and tied in a third that just started), I’m happy to see that I made it out of the lowest Tiers successfully. So my fears that the system would vastly under-exaggerate my true rank were overstated. I’d also like to thank the dice, Triple A, and my dual monitor setup.

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Statistical Model for Predicting the Winner

      @Imperious-Leader Statistical models predict things to be more likely than not. They can still be wrong. They aren’t perfect. If some idiot builds only naval units, or if someone decides to throw the game - it won’t work. (It also won’t work if the sample is too biased, or too small or half a dozen other reasons).

      A classic example is that 538 model had Trump with a 20% of winning the US presidential election. Now I really don’t want to get into any political discussion, but it was completely possible that even though the 538 model favored Clinton, that Trump could still easily win. Any Axis and Allies player will be able to tell you how often unlikely events happen (so far my most unlikely dice roll was 1 in 100,000).

      My background: I’ve always been fascinated by statistics. At age 5 I won a contest estimating the number of smarties (M&Ms but it was in the UK) in a jar. I was reading the World Almanac at age 11. I wanted to be an economist at age 12. I ended up with a MA in Sociology. I’m a part-time professional gambler since 2016 on PredictIt (and have consistently made money for the past 5 years). Though I’m only familiar with linear and logistic regression. There might be better techniques to use (and if so I’d be happy to hear about them).

      My hypothesis is that among good players, positioning leads to IPC gains and can be modeled. I haven’t tested this hypothesis in Global 1940.

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: LennardF v AKreider (Allies + 10) game #3

      I used edit mode to add a German sub to SZ125. Then hit ā€œRefresh Objectivesā€ button on Triple A. And the objective switched to False.

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer)

      This is generally a nice writeup!

      For new players, I’d say the dice simulators are your friends and would totally disagree with this:
      ā€œSIDEBAR: Battle Dice are not your friend!ā€
      It’s only as a more advanced player that you need to worry about this. Otherwise if you maximize your TUV everywhere, you ought to do well.

      Under strafing, a similar move is to attack at 50/50 odds when you have a good place to retreat in the hope that the first round will go in your favor allowing you to press the advantage. Especially useful for battles with a small number of valuable naval units (assuming you can retreat to a safe spot). Though not a beginner move. So long as your one round strafe simulation looks ok, the attacker often has an advantage when attacking at 50/50. This is less true in land battles that are 50/50 where the attacker is typically losing more units on the first round that the defender is (infantry that attack at 1 and defend at 2).

      Interesting estimations on unit value. We could put this to a test with logistic regression models 😃

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: LennardF v AKreider (Allies + 10) game #3

      Oops SZ5, not SZ 125.

      It has to be an enemy warship. So Japan has to be at war with Russia (which then triggers +2 for all three of their Land and Lease NOs).

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Warfare Principles of Axis & Allies (By AndrewAAGamer)

      Oops I’m skimming.

      It’s interesting that the old transport (with defense of 1 and 1 usable HP) would be worth an additional $4.5 under these pricing scheme. I used to love mass transports in Revised.

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: LennardF v AKreider (Allies + 10) game #3

      I’m assuming that was a test post. If it’s your real saved game, let me know.

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: China: attacking with infantry 3 vs 1

      This is without the fighter.

      posted in Axis & Allies Global 1940
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: LennardF v AKreider (Allies + 10) game #3

      TripleA Turn Summary: Americans round 3

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

      Game History

      Round: 3
      
          Purchase Units - Americans
              Americans buy 2 artilleries, 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 2 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 
      
          Politics - Americans
              Trigger Americans War Production Eastern: has removed 1 factory_minor owned by Americans in Eastern United States
              Trigger Americans War Production Central: has removed 1 factory_minor owned by Americans in Central United States
              Trigger Americans War Production Western: has removed 1 factory_minor owned by Americans in Western United States
              Trigger Americans War Production Eastern: Americans has 1 factory_major placed in Eastern United States
              Trigger Americans War Production Central: Americans has 1 factory_major placed in Central United States
              Trigger Americans War Production Western: Americans has 1 factory_major placed in Western United States
      
          Combat Move - Americans
              Trigger Americans Unrestricted Movement: Setting movementRestrictionTerritories cleared  for rulesAttachment attached to Americans
              1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
              2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 32 Sea Zone
              1 infantry moved from 32 Sea Zone to Marshall Islands
              1 infantry moved from 32 Sea Zone to Marshall Islands
              1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
              1 artillery moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
              1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
              1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands
      
          Combat - Americans
              Battle in Marshall Islands
              Battle in Caroline Islands
                  Americans attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
                  Japanese defend with 1 aaGun, 1 airfield and 1 harbour
                      1 aaGun owned by the Japanese lost in Caroline Islands
                  Americans win, taking Marshall Islands from Japanese, taking Caroline Islands from Japanese with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
                  Casualties for Japanese: 1 aaGun
      
          Non Combat Move - Americans
              1 battleship, 2 carriers, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 4 fighters and 3 submarines moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
              1 bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to Queensland
              1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 submarine moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
              2 fighters moved from Hawaiian Islands to Wake Island
              1 tactical_bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to 31 Sea Zone
              1 tactical_bomber moved from 31 Sea Zone to Wake Island
              1 armour, 4 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Central United States to 101 Sea Zone
              1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone
              1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 infantry, 3 mech_infantrys and 5 transports moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
              1 armour, 1 artillery, 5 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco
      
          Place Units - Americans
              1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 transport placed in 10 Sea Zone
              1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Western United States
              1 transport placed in 101 Sea Zone
              1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Eastern United States
      
          Turn Complete - Americans
              Americans collect 50 PUs; end with 50 PUs
              Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 60 PUs
              Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
              Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Savegame

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: LennardF v AKreider (Allies + 10) game #3

      TripleA Turn Summary: Chinese round 3

      TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

      Game History

      Round: 3
      
          Purchase Units - Chinese
              Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
              Chinese buy 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 
      
          Combat Move - Chinese
      
          Non Combat Move - Chinese
              7 infantry moved from Tsinghai to Sikang
              1 fighter moved from Tsinghai to Sikang
      
          Place Units - Chinese
              2 infantry placed in Sikang
      
          Turn Complete - Chinese
              Chinese collect 3 PUs; end with 4 PUs
      

      Combat Hit Differential Summary :

      Savegame

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Post League Game Results Here

      Somebody could run statistics on the games for the past year or two. You’d need a decent sample size because the G1 turn and even J1 turn (if you do J1 attack) can swing it a good bit.

      As a relatively newcomer, I’ve got little idea as to what a fair bid was. I heard 8 and went with that.

      The bid might also depend on your level of play. It’s possible that one side requires more skill (though I’d have no idea who, other than the first G1 and J1 attack turns being a bit overwhelming if you are new).

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: Post League Game Results Here

      A much simpler approach is to just look at the overall Axis and Allies win rate. Or see if the best players are playing the Axis more often.

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
    • RE: L20 #1 trulpen (X) vs akreider2 (A+9) BM3

      I had some good rolls this round. No losses on my two SBRs, nothing lost to convoys, and killed two destroyers without losing any planes. No big battles, but a lot of helpful little ones. The ritualistic sacrifices to the Dice Gods are clearly paying off!

      posted in League
      akreider2
      akreider2
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