Best posts made by akreider2

Thanks for the upvote

The 90 second delay for doing a second post on this forum is extremely annoying. Please remove it.

Also how can I get rid of it? I’m using my old forum account with 200+ posts from 2007 and for some reason I’m being treated as a potential spammer.

It’d be fun to train an AI using pro games. I wrote an AI once, but it was for Connect Four (a very simple game) and many years ago.

Uh oh. Different sounds bad

Has anyone made a dice simulator for G40?

I see the Triple A one. I like some of the functionality/stats of the older one more.

This is my second ever Sea Lion attempt. First was in the Europe 1940. Hmm, might be easier for the US to take it back in Global. I feel sad for the transports!

I saw that potential problem, but wanted to bail out the Italian fleet. Though perhaps the cost is too high? I’m thinking I’ve got a 5% chance of winning this game.

@Imperious-Leader The proposed model wouldn’t be that effective at handling stupid moves, and mistakes.

You could partially control for mistakes with a variable that is based on the player’s league ranking (if they are in the league).

@Imperious-Leader Statistical models predict things to be more likely than not. They can still be wrong. They aren’t perfect. If some idiot builds only naval units, or if someone decides to throw the game - it won’t work. (It also won’t work if the sample is too biased, or too small or half a dozen other reasons).

A classic example is that 538 model had Trump with a 20% of winning the US presidential election. Now I really don’t want to get into any political discussion, but it was completely possible that even though the 538 model favored Clinton, that Trump could still easily win. Any Axis and Allies player will be able to tell you how often unlikely events happen (so far my most unlikely dice roll was 1 in 100,000).

My background: I’ve always been fascinated by statistics. At age 5 I won a contest estimating the number of smarties (M&Ms but it was in the UK) in a jar. I was reading the World Almanac at age 11. I wanted to be an economist at age 12. I ended up with a MA in Sociology. I’m a part-time professional gambler since 2016 on PredictIt (and have consistently made money for the past 5 years). Though I’m only familiar with linear and logistic regression. There might be better techniques to use (and if so I’d be happy to hear about them).

My hypothesis is that among good players, positioning leads to IPC gains and can be modeled. I haven’t tested this hypothesis in Global 1940.

As the lowest ranked Tier 1 (3.5 avg, but just won another game and am currently winning another and tied in a third that just started), I’m happy to see that I made it out of the lowest Tiers successfully. So my fears that the system would vastly under-exaggerate my true rank were overstated. I’d also like to thank the dice, Triple A, and my dual monitor setup.

TripleA Turn Summary: Chinese round 3

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Chinese
        Trigger Chinese Loses Burma Road: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Closed
        Chinese buy 2 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Chinese

    Non Combat Move - Chinese
        7 infantry moved from Tsinghai to Sikang
        1 fighter moved from Tsinghai to Sikang

    Place Units - Chinese
        2 infantry placed in Sikang

    Turn Complete - Chinese
        Chinese collect 3 PUs; end with 4 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: Americans round 3

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 Balanced Mod3, version: 3.4

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Americans
        Americans buy 2 artilleries, 1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 2 infantry and 2 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Politics - Americans
        Trigger Americans War Production Eastern: has removed 1 factory_minor owned by Americans in Eastern United States
        Trigger Americans War Production Central: has removed 1 factory_minor owned by Americans in Central United States
        Trigger Americans War Production Western: has removed 1 factory_minor owned by Americans in Western United States
        Trigger Americans War Production Eastern: Americans has 1 factory_major placed in Eastern United States
        Trigger Americans War Production Central: Americans has 1 factory_major placed in Central United States
        Trigger Americans War Production Western: Americans has 1 factory_major placed in Western United States

    Combat Move - Americans
        Trigger Americans Unrestricted Movement: Setting movementRestrictionTerritories cleared  for rulesAttachment attached to Americans
        1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
        2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 32 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 32 Sea Zone to Marshall Islands
        1 infantry moved from 32 Sea Zone to Marshall Islands
        1 infantry moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from Hawaiian Islands to 26 Sea Zone
        1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from 33 Sea Zone to Caroline Islands

    Combat - Americans
        Battle in Marshall Islands
        Battle in Caroline Islands
            Americans attack with 1 artillery and 1 infantry
            Japanese defend with 1 aaGun, 1 airfield and 1 harbour
                1 aaGun owned by the Japanese lost in Caroline Islands
            Americans win, taking Marshall Islands from Japanese, taking Caroline Islands from Japanese with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 5
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 aaGun

    Non Combat Move - Americans
        1 battleship, 2 carriers, 2 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 4 fighters and 3 submarines moved from 26 Sea Zone to 33 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to Queensland
        1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 submarine moved from 10 Sea Zone to 26 Sea Zone
        2 fighters moved from Hawaiian Islands to Wake Island
        1 tactical_bomber moved from Hawaiian Islands to 31 Sea Zone
        1 tactical_bomber moved from 31 Sea Zone to Wake Island
        1 armour, 4 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Central United States to 101 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 5 infantry, 3 mech_infantrys and 5 transports moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
        1 armour, 1 artillery, 5 infantry and 3 mech_infantrys moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco

    Place Units - Americans
        1 carrier, 1 destroyer and 1 transport placed in 10 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Western United States
        1 transport placed in 101 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Eastern United States

    Turn Complete - Americans
        Americans collect 50 PUs; end with 50 PUs
        Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 60 PUs
        Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 65 PUs
        Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 70 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

I’m assuming that was a test post. If it’s your real saved game, let me know.

Oops SZ5, not SZ 125.

It has to be an enemy warship. So Japan has to be at war with Russia (which then triggers +2 for all three of their Land and Lease NOs).

I used edit mode to add a German sub to SZ125. Then hit “Refresh Objectives” button on Triple A. And the objective switched to False.

This is without the fighter.

Somebody could run statistics on the games for the past year or two. You’d need a decent sample size because the G1 turn and even J1 turn (if you do J1 attack) can swing it a good bit.

As a relatively newcomer, I’ve got little idea as to what a fair bid was. I heard 8 and went with that.

The bid might also depend on your level of play. It’s possible that one side requires more skill (though I’d have no idea who, other than the first G1 and J1 attack turns being a bit overwhelming if you are new).

A much simpler approach is to just look at the overall Axis and Allies win rate. Or see if the best players are playing the Axis more often.

I had some good rolls this round. No losses on my two SBRs, nothing lost to convoys, and killed two destroyers without losing any planes. No big battles, but a lot of helpful little ones. The ritualistic sacrifices to the Dice Gods are clearly paying off!

Here we might have another different view point. For me, if you have the choice between a battle with 51% win rate and positive TUV (even +1) vs doing nothing, so long as it doesn’t have a negative impact on your position - you take the battle.

You take all battles with positive expected outcome. And of course you’d favor the 52% win battle with 0.1 more TUV over the 51% one.

Unlike some/most gambling (I gamble on politics at PredictIt), there aren’t any “house” fees - so the tiniest imaginable edge is useful.

Unless you expect to beat your opponent by a large margin, in which case taking fights that are only slightly favorable to you might be detrimental.

The critical fact about attacking with 50/50 odds, is that with strategic withdrawal the battle simulators might be under-estimating your TUV gain (it’d be interesting if someone were to write a calculator that would handle that!). Admitedly this is a rare situation and you are much better off attacking at 95%+ win odds most of the time.