@The_Good_Captain Game History
Round: 1 Combat Move - Germans 1 mech and 2 tanks moved from El Agheila to Zella 1 mech, 1 scoutcar and 2 tanks moved from Zella to Mersa Brega 1 G-antitank and 1 artillery moved from El Agheila to Mersa Brega 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Tripoli to Mersa Brega Combat - Germans Non Combat Move - Germans Trigger AddCoastRoadTripoli: Germans has 1 coast_road placed in Tripoli Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from El Agheila: 1 5-supply EDIT: Adding units owned by Italians to El Agheila: 3 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 5-supply EDIT: Adding units owned by Uncontrolled to Mersa Brega: 3 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by Italians from El Agheila: 2 1-supplys EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Mersa Brega: 1 scoutcar EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Mersa Brega: 1 artillery and 1 mech EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 matilda EDIT: Removing units owned by British from Mersa Brega: 1 UK-truck EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to Mersa Brega: 1 UK-truck EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Trigger RemoveCoastRoadTripoli: has removed 1 coast_road owned by Germans in Tripoli 1 G-bomber and 1 G-fighter moved from Mersa Brega to El Agheila 1 mech moved from Tripoli to Mersa Brega Place Units - Germans 1 1-supply and 2 G-fighters placed in Tripoli Convoy G Assign Convoy Escorts - Germans Trigger AllowGermanFighterToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger AllowGermanBomberToStayAtSea: Setting carrierCost to 0 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger ReduceMovementGermanAircraft: Setting movement to 2 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber Trigger 1British5-supplyCairo: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyMalta: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 2British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyBenghazi: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli Convoy G: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1Italian1-supplyEl Agheila: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1German1-supplyTripoli: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 1British1-supplyMalta: Uncontrolled has 1 1-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger 3British5-supplyTobruk: Uncontrolled has 1 5-supply placed in Sahara Desert 1 Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-fighter Trigger IncreaseAircraftMovementTo4: Setting movement to 4 for unitAttachment attached to G-bomber 1 G-bomber moved from Sicily to Sea Zone 13 2 G-fighters moved from Tripoli Convoy G to Sea Zone 13 End Turn - Germans Germans collect 0 PUs; end with 4 PUs Objective Germans Base Income: Germans met a national objective for an additional 25 PUs; end with 29 PUsLemming (Allies) v Wheatbeer (Axis) g40 a2
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- the end result being 5.4% chance or better
After running round 1 probability, Germany’s hits on Round 1 alone being so effective was only a 0.8% chance.
Let me know whether you want a reroll or what.
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I’m not trying to worm my way out. I had a guy just quit on me after bad dice roll in fights he should never have tried, so I know it’s frustrating.
My calculator says your average IPC loss 169, mine 149, with a 40% chance you win vs a 60% chance I win.
By low-luck, you should have 81+342+73=97/6=16 MOD 1 hits
I should have 392+83+14=106/6=17 MOD 4 hits.
A difference of 10 more hits is way too huge in the first roll of a a near 50 dice per side battle.
I’m ok if you actually win, just not with 9 Art, 6 tanks and 1 fighter left :-)The kind of naval battle off Egypt earlier when my Med fleet was wiped out, or the crazy roll in Fin last round, I can certainly accept as part and parcel of the game. It’s high stakes and calculated risk, but with 50 dice a side and plenty of inf to soak the hits, you would think luck will even out. There’s no way I can change my strat to address this kind of extremes, unless you double my IPCs. It would be unplayable.
It’s a shame to end. I fought off a NZ kill but your Japs are ruling the Pacific. I’m just making Normandy but your Africa is rock solid, eastern front v balanced until this. Certainly a great game.
In my ftf games our house rule is not allowed to even try such mega fights with low margins, unless we are about to stop the game anyway. Just leaves a bad taste in everyone’s mouth otherwise.
I’ll leave it to you, we continue with low luck if you still want to roll for this? Unfair to make you swallow a lousy result too. I know you’re trying a hit and run, but normally I only do it when I have overwhelmingly superior hitting power which you do not. Your call.
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I just wanted to weaken EPL enough that it could not take POL and perhaps dissuade it from entering Romania again.
Low like is hitting power divided by 6 then rolling the remainder right?
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So MOD 4 means you’d roll 4@1 or 1@4?
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1@4.
Really if you are uncomfortable it’s cool too. -
I don’t mind using low luck for this battle given that I already risked significant losses. I don’t want to use low luck for the whole game though.
So I will roll for EPL r1 remainders
A
Rolls: 1@1; Total Hits: 01@1: (3)D
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 01@4: (6) -
leaves us with
Germany
2 mech, 6 inf, 17 art, 6 tank, 1 fig
USSR
12 inf, 11 art, 7 tank, 1 tact, 1 fig
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still too many Russians :-P
Round 2 would be:
25@2 7@3 = 71, 11 hits mod5
23@2 8@3 1@4 = 12 hits mod2
right?
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25@2 7@3 = 71 hitting power = 11 hits mod5
23@2 8@3 1@4 = 74 hitting power = 12 hits mod2
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EPL r2 remainders
A
Rolls: 1@5; Total Hits: 11@5: (1)D
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (2) -
EPL r3
A 12@2 7@3 = 45 = 7 hits mod 3
Rolls: 1@3; Total Hits: 11@3: (2)D 11@2 8@3 1@4 = 50 = 8 hits mod 2
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 11@2: (1) -
I think I will stop there and retreat to Romania.
Non-com will be somewhat different.
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sure go ahead and redo
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NCM:
1 fig epl >> rom
2 fig SZ98 >> SZ92
2 tact SZ98 >> rom
1 aa gun hun >> rom
4 inf, 3 art ger >> hun
2 carrier SZ98 >> SZ92
2 trans SZ98 >> SZ97
2 mech sita >> yugo
3 inf, 2 art fra >> nita
4 inf wgr >> gerMobilize:
7 inf wgr
10 inf gerCollect 43 IPC
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make that:
2 inf, 2 art fra >> nita
1 inf fra >> wgrIf you can just move an inf from nita to wgr on the R6 map
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Russia6
44 IPCs buy 11MechCombat:
2Art, 1Fig, 1Tac Kar >> Fin
1Mech, 1Arm Nov >> Fin
AttRolls: 3@2 2@3 1@4; Total Hits: 43@2: (1, 5, 2)2@3: (1, 5)1@4: (2)
DefRolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 13@2: (2, 4, 3)1Mech Nov >> Pol
2Art, 1Fig, 1Tac Epl >> Pol
AttRolls: 3@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 13@2: (4, 4, 6)1@3: (5)1@4: (1)
DefRolls: 3@2; Total Hits: 03@2: (6, 6, 6) -
Pol R2:
AttRolls: 3@2 1@3 1@4; Total Hits: 23@2: (1, 3, 6)1@3: (5)1@4: (2)
DefRolls: 2@2; Total Hits: 02@2: (3, 3) -
Non-combat as per map.
Place 3Mech in Nov, 3Mech in Sukr, 5Mech in Rus.
Collect 49IPCs.
Map. -
J6
Buy (36/38)
1 carrier
2 figCM:
SUM
3 inf, 1 mech, 1 art, 1 tank fic load 3x trans SZ36 >> SZ41 unload sumCEL
1x trans SZ33 >> SZ34 load 1 inf pau >> SZ44 unload celNCM:
1 fig, 2 tact car >> jap
1 tact car >> haw
2 strat phi >> jav
1 dest SZ36 >> SZ38
2 sub, 1 dest, 1 carrier, 2 fig SZ36 >> SZ41
2 carrier, 2 fig, 2 tact SZ43 >> SZ41
1 dest SZ43 >> SZ56
1 sub, 1 dest, 3 carrier, 4 fig, 2 tact, 2 bsh SZ33 >> SZ42
1 sub SZ54 >> SZ42
2 inf jap load 1x trans SZ6 >> SZ26 unload haw
2 inf, 2 art car load 2x trans SZ33 >> SZ42 unload jav
1 cru SZ33 >> SZ6
1 trans SZ6 >> SZ35Mobilize:
1 carrier, 2 fig SZ6Collect 49 IPC (51 total)
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Just so you know, I will be particular about OOL for SZ41, SZ42, and SZ6.
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