Jim010 vs Questioneer AAG40 2+ lowluck

[jim010]

Battle of Mor
1 inf, 1 tank vs 1 inf

att = 4 pips
Rolls: 1@4; Total Hits: 11@4: (3)

def = 2 pips
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (3)

[jim010]

Battle of Alg
2 inf, 1 fht vs 1 inf

att = 5 pips
Rolls: 1@5; Total Hits: 11@5: (1)

def = 2 pips
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (5)

[jim010]

Battle of Tun
1 inf, 1 art, 1 fht vs 1 inf

att = 7 pips = 1 hit

def = 2 pips
Rolls: 1@2; Total Hits: 01@2: (6)

[jim010]

NCM

Alg to Lib
1 fht

Tun to Lib
1 fht

Sit to Nit
1 inf

Alb to Yugo
2 inf

Nit to Yugo
1 AA

Sit to Nit
1 AA

Sfr to Sit
1 tac

sz95 to sz92
1 DD

Eth to Som
1 art

Place

Sit
1 fht

Collect

$27

[jim010]

Make that $26.  I keep forgeting about that French DD.

map

jimandstirl_vs_Questioneer_1It.AAM

[jim010]

I see that I don’t have my 2nd TT in sz112 purchased turn 1.

corrected map.

jimandstirl_vs_Questioneer_1It.AAM

[jim010]

I’m gone this weekend, and stirling is gone for the week.

[Major Major]

Sorry to interrupt, but I’ve a question for questioneer; is there a new battlemap or upgrade. I can’t open the maps from anyone’s games that are recent.  I can still open my old ones?

[jim010]

We still playing?  :?

[questioneer]

yes, been busy- exams

[questioneer]

having trouble uploading map- I’ll have to get to this later- sorry.

[questioneer]

France 1

NCM- on map- I’m not writing it out for France- there’s not much there so…

map

jimandstirl_vs_Questioneer_1Ffr.AAM

[jim010]

Hmm … I’m still getting 78% success on low luck for Sealion.  Which means I would survive with little.

[jim010]

78% on low luck is too risky …

Germany

Buys

1 CV, 1 DD, 11 inf, 3 art

CM

Bul to Greece
4 inf

Sit to Greece
1 tac, 1 fht

Wge to Greece
1 bmb

Yugo to Greece
3 tanks

Hol to Wfr
2 inf, 3 fht, 1 tac

[jim010]

Take 1 fht back from Wfr

[questioneer]

@jim010:

Hmm … I’m still getting 78% success on low luck for Sealion.  Which means I would survive with little.

too risky??? wow…please elaborate…I’m interested in your thinking here.  Taking London gains you cash back for your losses and no income from Britain for several rounds (material against you- you should count this as an asset for you).  Taking the Brit Isles gain you +9 a round and 30+ cash not including the 25IPC a turn that can be churned out against you- which is save material for you.

My philosophy is that as Germany you at least have to threaten Sealion to force Britain to build infantry.  I’m puzzled. :?

[jim010]

I won’t survive with enough.

If you want me to do Sealion anyway, I’ll do it just to see where it goes, but I’m surviving with a handful.  And there is still a 1/4 chance that I still lose in lowluck.

As a playtest you want me to do it?

[questioneer]

No, you don’t have to, do what you want.  I just think you’re a little gun shy.  78% is a lot!  I’ve calculated Sealion (depending on the position which varies little to be around 60-70% give or take.  Anything under 60-65% I consider too risky for me, but to each his own…

[jim010]

You misunderstand the odds.  Regular luck it is 55%.  You never run Sealion on that.  78% on low luck.  That is crappy for lowluck.

[jim010]

I don’t do Sealion based on odds, but on how much I survive with.  If I can get it with most of my tanks, I do it.

I’ll tell you what, I’ll run it then.  But I’ll want a rematch if it blows up in my face.