OK, so we establish G1 London oriented Sealion fail on odds. So what is the POINT of a G1 Baltic naval build, if it is NOT to invade London?
Again, this is Spring 1942. Transports are noncombatants. Important.
The theory now, as I understand it, is that the carrier gives fighters landing zones. This carrier therefore allows fighters to threaten the spaces around London, preventing a London naval build. If US sails a fleet in, Germany uses its range to kill it. Only solution, US sails fleet in, then UK reinforces, or UK drops a huge navy. But US doesn’t have a fleet that can take that damage in range until US2. (US1 build, US2 move). UK can’t afford that kind of navy easily either, particularly on UK1.
Germany uses that carrier to protect the transport that feeds infantry directly from Western Europe or other inconvenient places to Karelia. So the time delay in building a carrier is offset by the saving of a turn’s worth of movement for infantry.
Additional compensation comes with a far stronger grip on Norway, giving Germany additional income and denying it to UK or Russia, both of which are key early opponents.
So you see, Germany is not peeing its pants trying to invade London. That’s not the point at all.
So you SHOULD see Germany trying to crack Anglo-Egypt Sudan, plus most of the other “usual suspects”. The single difference is that you typically won’t see as many German tanks on G1, allowing Russia to make some early progress, and that you may see 2 fighters at Anglo-Egypt Sudan (IF the Med fleet headed west to Gibraltar, which there’s a good chance it did; the 2nd fighter allows the Germans to commit less ground to the battle. This makes holding Ukraine with its German fighter another possible precondition to a G1 naval build.
But the problem with Russia is not Russia’s early progress, as the UK and US. Once the UK/US transport chain sets in, you have 12-16 units, at least, being dropped into Russia every turn, on the German side, in a territory adjacent to Moscow. The Axis cannot withstand that. Every turn, 16 ground units get dropped closer and closer, if the Allies get it going, the Axis cannot hope to win, completely impossible.
Germany’s G1 build is only meant to STALL the Allies while Japan slaughters Russia from the east. If Russia’s running rampant in the west, it matters relatively little as Japan pushes from the East. Russia is forced to retreat the bulk of its forces east to deal with the threat, and Germany can press forwards again - very little, but enough. Germany can let the Allies move into position in the Atlantic to get time to make the final push.
So that’s how you’re SUPPOSED to use a German Baltic build. I still say a German Baltic build is no good. Too easy for the Allies to counter too quickly, because Baltic zone is only place to put new units, and it’s a dead end. Far more, I prefer the idea of a Mediterranean carrier, which I haven’t seen yet in play, or even an article on.
So I will call it the “Bunnies Carrier Plan” with pride. Although I know d*** well others have tried it. Not that I’ve seen it, but I can hardly think that I’m the ONLY one that has been struck by the following.
1. Mediterranean women are hot.
Wrong list
1. Mediterranean is adjacent to Ukraine, Balkans, and Caucasus. Baltic only Eastern Europe and Karelia. Using transports from S. Europe to Caucasus saves TWO turns of walking, not just one. And Caucasus is a key target. No matter how far the Russian lines stretch, Caucasus can never be lightly defended with the possibility of German capture and Japanese fighter reinforcement. (This is around J3-4 of course; J1 requires targets be hit, J2 fly back to Asia, J3-J4 they start to get in range.)
2. Mediterranean is adjacent to Africa.
3. Southern Europe produces units AND has an easy zone to retreat to. Two, in fact. A threatened fleet can retreat while Germany puts down a destroyer block. Control of AES means the German fleet can literally just get out of there completely if necessary.
4. Mediterranean battleship easy to destroy with air. Mediterranean battleship and carrier much much less so. Particularly with Japanese fighters in the area.
5. Mass sub builds to control Mediterranean fail to destroyer/air normally, but battleship/carrier can protect subs.
So you can see how 2 transports, carrier, and a battleship could really wreck Africa and the Caucasus, while with Axis control of Africa, would restrict Allied landing zones to the point of being quite difficult to cap out the German fleet.
Granted, carriers are expensive. But if the German battleship is going to be destroyed soon, and the Germans are having trouble in Africa, why not?
Additionally, the Germans can start shuttling units into Libya (not Anglo Egypt Sudan). Doing so leaves them in range of any heavy Algerian landing, and protects any sub builds.
Where do the Germans get the paycheck for all this? Hopefully Africa. With 2 transports, it should not be long before Germany runs through Africa. With subs, they can stall an Algeria landing.
That doesn’t deny that the E Canada/London - London/Europe chain is the one that’s really a problem. Africa’s nice to have. But Archangel/Karelia are the game.
Still, as far as the Baltic goes, I think it’s a dead end, for reasons I have posted elsewhere. Briefly - minimal German build risks air / sub attack, massive German build risks destroyer block with mass subs on UK2 (even after a UK1 air build). Barring extreme G3 naval build that leaves Russia in a great position after a weak G1 and G2, I think the Baltic fleet drops. This is not an awful thing for the Axis, in that Allied subs are useless against German ground targets. But it isn’t nice to drop 3 carriers and a destroyer either. That’s a LOT of infantry.
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BTW, Sealion Baltic often includes transport to threaten 3 transport invasion of London with Med fleet. That threat must be taken seriously by Allies; they cannot skip straight to mass air response. Ground units must be built. My feeling is that the UK1 response to the 3-transport threat allows some air to be built with the ground, forcing a G2 Baltic build or potential sacrifice. You’ll then see the Baltic fleet pinned in place; if it moves, it gets whacked, if it doesn’t move, the Allies just keep building up against it. Again, contrast with Mediterranean, where control of the canal allows the Axis to slip away at WORST.