So I have a decent stats background in that I have studied & understand descriptive and inferential statistical methods. But I think you are really looking for someone who understands probability to recommend something based on a sound methodology.
I second TripleA’s calculator. I would add that it’s important to learn the default order of loss and to modify it depending on the battle you’ll run, and to understand when default loss order can be different from what people would do in real life. For instance, a sea battle where ACs are needed to land planes would disqualify them from being used as first-hit fodder. To my knowledge there is no way to tell TripleA not to assign hits to them first, so the only real way to simulate that is to run the battle without ACs.
Another example is sea battles with a DD and planes against multiple subs - once the DD is dead, the subs are safe, but I’ve seen the calculator not take that into account, overestimating the chance of success. I think submerged subs results in a victory for the attacker, but is it really?
So basically if you’re familiar with the limitations and customizations, TripleA is definitely good.
