• '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator


    it’s not 2 rounds of no builds.  you collect cash on turn one after you retake the capital on britain turn 1

    then us reinforces and germany cannot retake by any means.

    You are assuming you retake England with UK.  Why?

    I’m assuming you do not retake England with UK.  You have to best a defending infantry and defending armor with a tank and a battleship.  2/3rds of the time you have a 50/50 battle, the rest of the time you have worse odds.

  • ah, well if you don’t choose to lose your infantry than the initial invasion is much less likely to succeed.  because you lose the plane initially which reduces firpower in that invasion battle.  but i agree, if you accept reduced odds of winning the initial attack and greater airpower losses, thanin that circumstance uk is sub-50% of taking back and the risky invasion has paid off.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    According to Frood, and I think we’ve established his calculator as reliable, if your OOL is Fighters, Bombers, Infantry, Armor on attack, Germany has a 65% chance of winning leaving a fighter or bomber (because of the AA Gun) Infantry, Armor.

    That means England has less than a 50% chance to liberate and America will have to do the job.  To me this sounds preferable to the 87% chance of winning if you follow a normal OOL (except the fighters die before the tank so you can take the ground) because you’ve basically stopped England for a full two game turns.

    30 IPC will easily replace three of your fighters without digging into your normal income.  You can trim one of his battleships off just by using your SZ 14 fleet to attack it instead of the destroyer.

  • ah ok, assuming frood is better than the other calculator i was using (it looks more detailed), then you are correct.  in terms of the overall strategy (23% failed tech rolls) and your 65% quote that would make it almost exactly a 50/50 shot for either complete failure or success with 2 units with the strategy you describe.  UK having a <50% chance of taking it back does mitigate the strategy, however, in favor of making it a low-return strategy on average.

    I can definitely see why they nuked it in the rules since it basically gives a potentially inferior player a moderate chance of having a big advantage in the game.  Assuming you believe your skill to be equal or better than your opponent’s, it is a mistake to employ it since it’s like reducing your chance of actually winning the whole game, but i see why people do it.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Yea, I never said it was a good strategy, but it does give you the option of really decimating the allies early on.

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