What odds battle would you take to win the game?



  • In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?

    Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.

    66% chance?
    75%?
    50%?

    Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.



  • 75% at least. I wouldn’t risk units unnecessarily if I was already in control of the game.



  • Well, in my current game I “took a chance” on a 98%+ win battle to win the game by taking Moscow and the 9th VC for the Axis…

    I lost in Moscow, badly (Russia held w/ 1 FIG, I lost 17 ARM, 5 FIGs more than expected).

    So my choices right now would be skewed a bit…
    😐



  • It depends on how I’m feeling  😄
    Sometimes I won’t attack until I’m at least 75% sure, and in other games I just let myself go and throw myself out there(I once attacked Moscow with maybe 30% chance of winning the battle…
    Sometimes you just have to trust your gutfeeling 😉


  • 2018 2017 '16 '11 Moderator

    IF we’re talking a capitol:  60% or better
    If we’re talking a large battle (non-capitol): 90%-ish
    If we’re talking a pissant little battle (like up to 8 units for BOTH sides combined): 75-80%-ish depending on value.

    Absolute worst battles I’ll engage in are Infantry + Fighter vs Infantry.  That’s if I just want to clear the land, not necessarily take it.  And that’s even rated at about 90%. (Though to be honest, I’ve seen far higher rates of retreat without killing the enemy then victories (which is killing the enemy, not winning the land per se)  I think in reality it’s far closer to 67% wins, since that defender has a 33% chance to hit you and my fighters seem to have a 3% chance of hitting anything, even the ground!)



  • @ncscswitch:

    Well, in my current game I “took a chance” on a 98%+ win battle to win the game by taking Moscow and the 9th VC for the Axis…

    I lost in Moscow, badly (Russia held w/ 1 FIG, I lost 17 ARM, 5 FIGs more than expected).

    So my choices right now would be skewed a bit…
    😐

    Yeah, what were the exact attacking units and the exact defending units?

    I don’t trust that “98% win” you quoted.  >.>



  • @axis_roll:

    In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?

    Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.

    66% chance?
    75%?
    50%?

    Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.

    Not sure I understand the question.  If it’s a “fairly even game” against a player of the same skill, how could I be one win away from a decisive victory in a battle where I can “afford to lose the attacking units/ there is little risk to losing…position if the battle goes for the opposition”?

    If that’s the case, i’d say theoretically you should probably take a shot at at 50% or maybe even lower, because the way you describe it, there’s ultimate upside and almost no downside.  I have a hard time envisioning what that scenario might even look like… maybe a small-scale tank blitz on a poorly defended capital?  Sure…roll dem bones.

    But really, if…
    …I’m in that position with a chance to win and
    …I can truly afford to lose the battle without losing much in terms of units or position, and
    …it’s really an even game
    I have to assume that means my opponent is similarly close to claiming a decisive victory elsewhere (otherwise how is it truly even if I’m so well positioned, but he/she is not?), so I better take my chances soon.

    But in reality it depends on whether I think I will ultimately get a better shot at a decisive battle that is more in my favor by holding off that wouldn’t happen if I make the attack and fail.



  • @Bunnies:

    @ncscswitch:

    Well, in my current game I “took a chance” on a 98%+ win battle to win the game by taking Moscow and the 9th VC for the Axis…

    I lost in Moscow, badly (Russia held w/ 1 FIG, I lost 17 ARM, 5 FIGs more than expected).

    So my choices right now would be skewed a bit…
    😐

    Yeah, what were the exact attacking units and the exact defending units?

    I don’t trust that “98% win” you quoted.  >.>

    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=11379.msg298534#msg298534

    Japan Attacking Force:
    14 INF, 44 ARM, 6 FIG

    Allied Defending Force:
    39 INF, 5 ART, 5 ARM, 6 FIG, 1 BOM, AA

    Frood odds with 1000 rolls…

    98.8%

    That is one of more than a half dozen battles in that game where 98%+ results have been pegged in battles…  Every single one to the Allies benefit.



  • @ncscswitch:

    @Bunnies:

    @ncscswitch:

    Well, in my current game I “took a chance” on a 98%+ win battle to win the game by taking Moscow and the 9th VC for the Axis…

    I lost in Moscow, badly (Russia held w/ 1 FIG, I lost 17 ARM, 5 FIGs more than expected).

    So my choices right now would be skewed a bit…
    😐

    Yeah, what were the exact attacking units and the exact defending units?

    I don’t trust that “98% win” you quoted.  >.>

    http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=11379.msg298534#msg298534

    Japan Attacking Force:
    14 INF, 44 ARM, 6 FIG

    Allied Defending Force:
    39 INF, 5 ART, 5 ARM, 6 FIG, 1 BOM, AA

    Frood odds with 1000 rolls…

    98.8%

    That is one of more than a half dozen battles in that game where 98%+ results have been pegged in battles…  Every single one to the Allies benefit.

    1.  OK, my bad.  Those were some totally good odds on the attack.

    2.  ROFLCOPTER!



  • The sad part is, that THAT battle is one of only a half dozen that have had the same skewed odds results.

    I have had AVERAGE dice only 5 of 13 turns, and GOOD dice on only 3 or 4 MINOR battles.

    The fact that, 13 turns in, I am not down to just Tokyo and/or Berlin is a freakin MIRACLE!
    (though defeat is looking pretty likely after THAT many sets of bad dice…)



  • @ncscswitch:

    The sad part is, that THAT battle is one of only a half dozen that have had the same skewed odds results.

    I have had AVERAGE dice only 5 of 13 turns, and GOOD dice on only 3 or 4 MINOR battles.

    The fact that, 13 turns in, I am not down to just Tokyo and/or Berlin is a freakin MIRACLE!
    (though defeat is looking pretty likely after THAT many sets of bad dice…)

    I think my new avatar says it all.



  • Thanks for rubbing it in 😛



  • @TimTheEnchanter:

    @axis_roll:

    In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?

    Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.

    66% chance?
    75%?
    50%?

    Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.

    Not sure I understand the question.   If it’s a “fairly even game” against a player of the same skill, how could I be one win away from a decisive victory in a battle where I can “afford to lose the attacking units/ there is little risk to losing…position if the battle goes for the opposition”?
    yes, it IS a nebulous question because usually it IS hard to tell which side is winning in a game if the game is somewhat early and no one had a distinct advantage.

    If that’s the case, i’d say theoretically you should probably take a shot at at 50% or maybe even lower, because the way you describe it, there’s ultimate upside and almost no downside.  I have a hard time envisioning what that scenario might even look like… maybe a small-scale tank blitz on a poorly defended capital?  Sure…roll dem bones.
    that is the way I am looking at it

    But really, if…
    …I’m in that position with a chance to win and
    …I can truly afford to lose the battle without losing much in terms of units or position, and
    …it’s really an even game
    I have to assume that means my opponent is similarly close to claiming a decisive victory elsewhere (otherwise how is it truly even if I’m so well positioned, but he/she is not?), so I better take my chances soon.

    well I am involved in only one game here and it’s for a tourney level game  😉 😉

    But in reality it depends on whether I think I will ultimately get a better shot at a decisive battle that is more in my favor by holding off that wouldn’t happen if I make the attack and fail.
    I agree, there may never be a better opportunity to win the game then now.  I think you have clarity thru my very ambigious question.



  • @ncscswitch:

    Thanks for rubbing it in 😛

    Its karma for the AA guns in our tournament game…



  • @axis_roll:

    In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?

    Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.

    66% chance?
    75%?
    50%?

    Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.

    0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%

    You got nothing to lose so WHY EVEN ASK!!!  ANY CHANCE OF VICTORY IS GREATER THAN NONE, AND WITH NO CONSEQUENCES FOR LOSING, YOU SHOULD GO FOR IT!

    TimTheEnchanter wrote the critique I should have.



  • @Bunnies:

    @axis_roll:

    In a fairly even game, what percentage win would you need in a battle that, if you won it, would just about win the game?

    Assume that you can afford to lose the attacking units / there is little risk to losing your position if the battle goes for the opposition.

    66% chance?
    75%?
    50%?

    Assume also that both players are of about the same skill.

    0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001%

    You got nothing to lose so WHY EVEN ASK!!!  ANY CHANCE OF VICTORY IS GREATER THAN NONE, AND WITH NO CONSEQUENCES FOR LOSING, YOU SHOULD GO FOR IT!

    TimTheEnchanter wrote the critique I should have.

    Well there is SOME risk, the percentage that you will lose the battle. However, under the assumption that losing the battle will not lose you the war, then I agree, may as well go for it.
    Sometimes that’s not so cut and dry (the ‘damage’ that can occur if you lose this battle)


  • Moderator

    It really depends on the status of the game and how you think it will go from then on.

    For example if the status quo remains and the player can stack more in the capital then you can bring to attack, your odds are just going to go down, so even though you may only have a sub 50% chance to take that you may determine that is the best shot you’ll get.  But if you determine you can out stack them and increase your odds then you wait it out.

    If you are talking about a shot on UK or Ger (via sea), that’s a different story b/c those can be one-time threats and could have long term effects since they may interrupt your current transport system, so while it won’t lose you the war it can mess you up a few turns down the road.  Now, I’d consider taking a really low % shot (30-40%) at either one if I felt that I didn’t get off to a particularly good start.

    But I also think I have a good feel for the game and can judge whether I’m winning or losing.  So, as the Allies I’ll pass up low % to hit Belin and just continue to stack until I have overwhelming numbers.

    But as was pointed out if there are no consequences you might as well take a shot with a 1% chance.  But that would seem to imply you have an overwhelming lead already.



  • @DarthMaximus:

    But as was pointed out if there are no consequences you might as well take a shot with a 1% chance.  But that would seem to imply you have an overwhelming lead already.

    I simplified when I said there were no consequences since in this case, to me, they appear minimal.

    I’ve already talked myself into the attack, I was merely posting to see if anyone has some sort of go/no go point in a battle.  But I guess alot of that is situational (like many other A&A battle decisions)



  • It mostly depends on the game momentum. If I have a borderline shot at taking Russia a few turns before the US and UK start doing some really heavy landings, I’m going to take it. But if I can afford to wait and work for better odds I will.



  • For those of you following along at home, I took the 74% win battle, did quite well and my opponent surrendered.



  • I was going to answer in this thread, but you may still be my opponent in the final match of the tournament and it would be foolish of me to give such information away  🙂



  • @EskimoJack:

    I was going to answer in this thread, but you may still be my opponent in the final match of the tournament and it would be foolish of me to give such information away  🙂

    NICE  🙂  🙂  🙂

    +1 karma for ya


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