New Thought: Probably Stupid



  • Germany opens by destroying the British navy.
    England rebuilds navy waiting for U.S. to rebase it’s two fighters.
    As Japan could it be wise here to “Over Pearl” and move Trannies to Hawaii with Inf.  Purchase 3 Trannie on turn 1 to make up for trannies moving east.

    Here the U.S. Western is within striking distance.  If the U.S. moves the fighters to rebase on English carrier, they cannot counterstrike the approaching Japanese navy.  If they do not counterstrike the Japanese navy they may get landed on so need to build INF in western or move INF from Eastern to Western.  If they do this, this delays their force movement to Africa by one turn.

    If they do reinforce, then you could move the TP from Hawaii back and drop the INF off in Manchuria next turn while taking the TP from WAke down to New Zealand.  Said threat also prevents U.K. from pulling troops back form Austalia.

    Any thoughts silly, or wouldone turn forebearance against the Russians not be worth buying one turn of forbearnace of the U.S. against GErmany.



  • HAwaii could also serve as a Bomber runway for strategic bombing runs on U.S. that they could never retake unless they rebuilt their wetsern navy.



  • Hmmm, unfortunately that would ceed MAnchuria with no retaliation on turn 1.  Perhaps this more radical idea would work.  Same situation.  Use only one TP.  Pearl harbor and take HAwaii.  On turn two, take Panama and move JApanese navy into Atlantic, to disrupt U.S. entry into the war.  As holding Panama is not important and simply taking it forcing a U.S. to go out of its way to take it back.  You could swing that one unit down to BRazil for 3 I.P.  The idea here would be just to disrupt U.S. shipping as long as possible in the Atlantic, suiciding your navy knowing that you can operate off the 3 TP and 1 TP without support ships in Asia.  Here the allies are kindof put in a hedge situation.  The brits just wasted their money on a fleet while keeping the majority of the german airforce intact, or the U.S. just got all its TP sunk without requiring the use of the German Airforce and has infantry out of place.



  • Hmm this might be made effective, if Russia draws back into the YAkut stack, so that you wouldn’t need a TP on turn one to retake Manchuria.



  • Sorry to keep replying to my own message but it wasn’t well thought through and may still not be.

    Conditions:

    1. Germany destroys British navy.
    2. Britain rebuilds navy with an eye on the U.S. rebasing fighters.

    Premise:
    Since the allies have no troop production in Asia and Russia can ill afford to stream more than a few infantry east per turn, a one turn delay will not prove too detrimental to Japan as, Japan ramping up its production will not win the war anyways.  In order for the axis to win the U.S. must be disrupted.  A one turn delay in Japanese conquest is worth disrupting U.S.

    Negatives:
    Japan will lose most of it’s air power in Asia
    Positives:
    Japan can out produce and pour into Asia anyways.

    J1:
    Sub, 2BB, AC, 3 Fighter, Bomber, TP with 1 INF from Japan and 1INF from wake attack U.S. HAwaiin fleet. and land at Hawaii.
    Average loses (1.5/less if Sub hits): Fighter/Submarine
    You will always lose at least a fighter here (Kamikazee)

    The Bomber can attack in the land battle at least from what I understand.  Lands in Wake.

    TP from Philapeans grabs 1 INF and 1 INF from Carolina and drops in Wake.
    This TP is now out of U.S. bomber range since Hawaii has been taken.

    Since you now have four landable infantry at Western, the U.S. is forced to protect, or retake with either case being a misdirection of there forces.

    If they protect, you have several options.

    1. The TP at Wake is within range for a landing in Asia on the next turn (threaten U.S. shores then double back).
      -It is within range of Alaska, force more U.S. forces to be misdirected.
      -It is within range of Mexico, force more U.S. forces to be misdirected.
      -It can reinforce Hawaii, if you choose to restation Hawaiin forces forward, then double back to Wake out of Bomber range.
      -It can drop south to New Zealand, and pick up more island INF on way back

    2. The Main navy can double back, land, or push towards the Atlantic to disrupt Allied shipping.

    By pushing through,
    The idea here is simply to suicide the Japanese Navy and large portion of teh airforce in an attempt to destroy both the Pacific navy, Airforce and R1 TP builds of the U.S. while misdirecting land forces, buying Germany considerable time

    Although the U.S. can still land in Africa they do so considerably weaker.

    By dropping 2 INF in MExico, 1INF in Panama, and 1 INF in BRazil, we can force the U.S. to either lose 7 I.P. including Hawaii or have to misdirect forces.

    Yes this leaves JApan weak in Asia without it’s airforce to carry the day, but ramped up Japan can’t win.  Germany needs time.  It’s also not like the Allies have ways of getting more units in Asia anyways.

    Also pushing into the Atlantic is an option.  One can simply, retreat the Wake TP back to Japan and land in MAnchuria.  1Hawaii INF could swing south to New Zealand and this TP could pick up island INF on way back.The rest of the fleet could then return netting you one lost fighter.

    In essence, since Japan ramping up doesn’t win the game, would Japan pushing troops forward to force a U.S. misdirection, be worthwhile.  With four INF pushing forward, he has to guard with something, or allow you to take (10 IPC) and then retake.  In either case it makes for a weaker Africa landing.

    The essential task here was to try and find a way to exploit the fact that by UK building a navy on turn 1 the U.S. has committed it’s fighters.  Japan has foreknowledge of this.  Is there an aggresive posture they can take with the U.S. to exploit this?



  • Okay, last reply to my own post promise.  Even though this move will probaly end up sucking, it might be cool in one of those bid games you were talking about.  Getting an extra trannie and a few INF with Japan could either allow to push forward with more, or do this move and still land and take back Manchuria.



  • A couple of things…

    1.  Japan “ramping up” production to the upper 30 IPC range and flowing 7 tanks a round at Russia is enough to destabilize Russia, take away a major chunck of their income (10 IPC’s gone from Russia once Japan takes K/N/E frontier).  That is 3 less INF per turn for Russia, now building at 8-14 IPC’s (2-4 INF) vs. 7 Japan ARM plus everything Germany can throw at them.

    2.  If you take Hawaii with the intention of using it as a bomber base, then you are going to be sending 15 IPC’s a round (I assume a steady increase in number of bombers) toward Hawaii.  That dramatically reduces the flow of units toward Russia, prevents Japan from taking UK’s Asian money away (7 IPC’s per round, that is almost an extra tranny a round to throw at Germany), and might even allow US to get paid an extra few rounds for SInkiang (2 IPC’s, nullifying an average of 60% of the IPC effect the first bombing)

    3.  A 1-4 tranny invasion of the United States is NOT going to happen.  The US simply builds their Europe forces in Western instead of Eastern, moves them to Western Canada, then picks them up with trannies to land directly in Norway or France.  This move actually has the advantage of halving the time to get forces to Europe for the US since the same tranny’s can pick up and drop off in the same round instead of needed a round to move back to Eastern to re-fill.

    4.  Lastly, without a massive Asia push by Japan, Japan simply does not have the money to DO anything, except buy bombers and build 3 INF a round.  If Russia took Manchuria and UK took Kwangtung on Turn 1, they won;t even have the money to kep THAT up for long once the allies finish kicking Japan off the contient.  This not only preserves Russia and UK IPC’s, it gives them even MORE IPC’s, allowing Russi to be building at 27-30 IPC’s and UK at near 40.  Germany falls extremely quickly under that scenario, even without ANY assistance from the US.

    5.  Lastly, on losing the UK fleet by diverting US1 fig move… not going to happen.  US will still end Eastern FIG to carrier no matter what.  US can use a BB, a TRN for fodder, the Eastern bomber to go after your fleet at Pearl.  What did you hit Pearl with on J1 anyway?  1 AC, 1 BB, 1 SUB, 2 FIGS, 1 BOM.  You can’t lose the tranny or you won’t take Hawaii.  The defense roll for the Pearl fleet is an average of 2 kills.  Los sub and a fig.  Bomber flies home.  That leaves 1 AC, 1 FIG, 1 BB, and 1 TRN facing US attack of 1 BB, 1 TRN, 1 BOM, 1 FIG.  That kills 2 more units of the Japan Hawaii fleet.  Losses are the BB and the last fig, keeping the TRN alive to use to land troops in Western, and the AC as a fighter platform to assist that landing.  Defense roll against the attacking US forces is an average of 2-3 hits… US loses the TRN (it was fodder) and the fig.  If BB is also lost, US can retreat the bomber, leaving Japan with a tranny and empty AC off Hawaii.  US build is the land forces for use in Europe, built in Western, plus a few Trannies in Eastern and a fig.

    Japan can’t land any troops anywhere in the US with only 2 INF, no support shot, and no figs on the carrier.  It will take Japan a round just to get figs to the AC, then they can attack the next round, US building the whole time.

    And in UK, Germany will be able to sink the AC, 1 FIG and 1 TRN off UK.  But it will cost them another 2 units of their AF…  UK can replace their navy, Germany can’t replace their figs.  And now Germany does not have enough air power left to seriously threaten the Allied fleets anymore…


  • Moderator

    The Idea of taking HI on J1 is certainly plausible and could be worth doing.

    First though, it would have to be a RR game or a bid game that prevents a Russian assualt on Man on R1.

    You are right in thinking of trying to exploit the UK 1 buy of and AC and tran.

    This commits the US to go to UK, thus you are free from a Pearl Counter.

    Persoanlly, If I went to HI on rd 1, I’d use it as a bluff to see if I could get the US to spend some cash/time on the Pacific.  Usually this doesn’t work though.
    I’d then just back track and take NZ/Aus in rd 2-3 with BB shots and inf on HI.

    I wouldn’t consider using it as a bomber base till rd 4-5.  By that time you should be earning low 40’s which means you can spend 15 on a bom each rd and still get 8-10 inf to Asia.

    But this can also all be done by taking HI later as well.

    You will however find some experienced Allied players not purchasing a Navy on UK1, just to try and threaten a Pearl Counter.

    UK in that case could save its cash till rd 2, or buy bombers which can be flown to Moscow and can in turn threaten many a territory.


  • Moderator

    @ncscswitch:

    5.  Lastly, on losing the UK fleet by diverting US1 fig move… not going to happen.  US will still end Eastern FIG to carrier no matter what.  US can use a BB, a TRN for fodder, the Eastern bomber to go after your fleet at Pearl.  What did you hit Pearl with on J1 anyway?  1 AC, 1 BB, 1 SUB, 2 FIGS, 1 BOM.  You can’t lose the tranny or you won’t take Hawaii.  The defense roll for the Pearl fleet is an average of 2 kills.  Los sub and a fig.  Bomber flies home.  That leaves 1 AC, 1 FIG, 1 BB, and 1 TRN facing US attack of 1 BB, 1 TRN, 1 BOM, 1 FIG.  That kills 2 more units of the Japan Hawaii fleet.  Losses are the BB and the last fig, keeping the TRN alive to use to land troops in Western, and the AC as a fighter platform to assist that landing.  Defense roll against the attacking US forces is an average of 2-3 hits… US loses the TRN (it was fodder) and the fig.  If BB is also lost, US can retreat the bomber, leaving Japan with a tranny and empty AC off Hawaii.  US build is the land forces for use in Europe, built in Western, plus a few Trannies in Eastern and a fig.

    Japan can’t land any troops anywhere in the US with only 2 INF, no support shot, and no figs on the carrier.  It will take Japan a round just to get figs to the AC, then they can attack the next round, US building the whole time.

    And in UK, Germany will be able to sink the AC, 1 FIG and 1 TRN off UK.  But it will cost them another 2 units of their AF…  UK can replace their navy, Germany can’t replace their figs.  And now Germany does not have enough air power left to seriously threaten the Allied fleets anymore…Â

    Actually, you go in with (if doing Limited’s idea) 2 BB, 1 AC, 1 sub, 1 trn, 2 ftrs.  Bom and trn take HI.

    Assuming 2 hits by the US.
    Your left with 2 BB, 1 trn, 1 AC, 1 ftr.
    BTW, I think you can Non-com a ftr to get the AC full.

    Obviously, if US counters you lose the tranny first.

    But the US attack would look like this: (only 1 ftr can reach to counter Pearl if Hi is taken)

    1 BB, 1 trn, 1 ftr, 1 bom vs. 2 BB, 1 AC, 1 ftr, 1 trn.

    Japan has the adv, and probably comes out with 2 units left (1 BB and 1 AC), but now the UK carrier is a possible sitting duck.

    1 AC, 2 trns (1 UK, 1 US), 1 ftr vs. 4-5 ftrs, 1 bom.  That is an attack the Germans might take on G2.

    By UK buying the AC, it commits the US to a full defense of it with 2 ftrs, otherwise Japan may indeed take HI on J1, to try and get this sort of split.

    Again, provided RR or a bid on an inf or 2 in Man.



  • Exactly, in a straight game, it does not work.  You have to add a build by Japan, or play RR, for it to be viable.

    Regardless, is a lot of IPC’s to risk for a 1 IPC territory that may or may not be useful as a bomber base, unless you have HB’s.  Then, by all means, go for it!


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