Defending against a 21+ bid Power Europe

[Avin]

Unless I pre-emptively evacuate Karelia on R1 like I was proposing, your analysis is more or less correct: the problem isn’t just G1 but G2 as well. However I would add that every single time I have played against PE, I have also lost a fighter in the Baltic in R1 (despite playing LowLuck every time too!), except for this time - this time I took a sub in with me and after losing the sub without getting any hits, I retreated the fighters, dreading the loss of a fighter yet again. That was obviously a bad move on my part because then on G1 my opponent was able to have two more infantry from Norway. He didn’t attack Karelia, as I expected (since I took Eastern Europe I pretty much ensured that he wouldn’t try), but rather stacked up in CAU to force me to evacuate Kar in R2, and reinforced the CAU stack with Japanese fighters to prevent me from strafing.

I’m thinking the best way of learning how to deal with this is to try PE a few times myself and see what my opponents do.

[Guest]

Based on your results, I think maybe playing it as a defacto RR game may indeed be the way to go…

Do as you did with the sub and 2 figs (the sub is just cannon fodder in UK, and basedon what I see, Germany needs their figs for Karelia, though you lose the UK fleet if they do Caucuses, no surprise there though right?  Killing initial UK navy is expected).  But then just STACK Karelia, forcing Germany to play to Russia’s strength:  massive volumes of INF.

And with a forced evac of East Asia, you gain an extra 2 INF in R2 from Evenk, 3 INF from Yakut and 1 ARM from SFE in R3 (which is also the first round that Russia will be down any IPC’s on their build, giving you a net effect of being UP in terms of forces available against Germany).  This does not consider any US or UK troops that are pulled back (but to be honest, pulling the FIG out of India and almost all of the Russia forces out of Asia already lets Japan run wild… pulling back any harder opens up blitzing with the initial Japan tank plus builds in J2 forward.  Those couple of INF slow Japan down just a touch…

[Guest]

After running the sim several times…

The key is of course Allied air power in Russia.  UK dedicates 3 FIG to Russia defense in UK1.  US moves their FIGS to UK in US1, then to Russia in US2.  7 FIGS is one hell of a defensive force. 
FYI:
It takes 5 ARM and 5 INF to have a reasonable chance of beating 7 FIGS alone. 
Add an equal number of INF to the defense, and it takes 9 ARM and 9 INF to beat them. 
7 more INF makes it 13 ARM and 13 INF to have a good chance of winning.

If Germany is using their AF against fleet, normal opens of a UK AC and land US figs there should be enough to prevent Germany from hitting it (again, the whole point of a PE game is to take Russia out FAST, and for that you need that 5 3’s and 1 4, that is a whole build worth of ARM as attack value…)

[DarthMaximus]

@ncscswitch:

OK, tell me where I am screwed up in my thinking here…

Russia does the “normal” Karelia Stack:  19 INF, 3 ARM, 2 FIG.  Also takes out the German Baltic fleet with AF, Russia fleet to UK as normal.  1 INF in Caucuses, Evenk pulled back to Moscow, SFE tank and Yakut INF to Evenk, and 1 SFE INF to Yakut to block Japan

That means that Germany can attack Karelia with 18 INF, 7 ARM, plus air support

Against that Karelia Stack, without AF, Germany has only a 14% chance of winning.  They can bring 16 INF and 7 armor (3 from Norway, 3 from EE, 3 original from Ukraine, plus 7 bid units)  Armor from Norway, Ukraine, Eastern, Germany and Southern.  It takes 3 fighters to get that win percentage up to 52%, leaving only 2 figs and 1 bomber against the UK fleet.  IF Germany goes “all in” on Karelia, they take it 90% of the time with 4-6 tanks and most of their AF (lose a fig to AA).Â

But that means ignoring the Allies fleets, allowing UK to immediately land 2 INF, 1 ARM, plus a support shot and bomber if they hit a territory with troops in it (say to attack Karelia if Germany took it heavier than 6 ARM remaining…).  Also, UK now gets to fly 3 figs to Russia (2 from UK, 1 from India) to aid in defense in G2.  Noway was taken by UK (vacated in the Karelia attack), or Karelia was weakened.  US follows up with 2 more INF to Norway, plus 1 FIG to Norway from eastern (if Norway was taken).

With Karelia forces (figure 6 ARM), plus all AF (figure 4 FIGS and 1 BOM), Russia with the 2 INF from Evenk, an 8 INF build in R2, and 3 UK figs only falls 16% of the time.  To be above 50% chance of taking Russia, Germany has to take Karelia with all 7 INF and 2 INF surviving, plus their 4 figs and 1 BOM (1 fig lost to AA in Karelia).

Failing to take Russia on G2, the bid is spent, the Allies have had to spend nothing on navy have built their trannies in Turn 1, and already have forces in Norway.Â

G1 Caucuses strike results coming up…

Mostly true, but a couple minor things.  I’m going to assume playing LL (since that is the Avin has been playing).

If you bring in all 6 planes (on G1), you are guarenteed to only lose 1, so that means with losing ftrs, you can take with all 7 armor.  And you can still kill the tranny off E Can.
The bulk of the Allied fleet is irrelevant.
The goal is to take or at the very least cripple Russia early.

UK can suicide an attack on 7 arm on UK 1 but will only put a minor dent while losing everything, and a Russia attack of 2 inf and 1 arm won’t do much either as Japan will land 2 ftrs for cover.

The important thing in the taking of Kar is the killing of the entire Russian army, more importanly 75% of its armor and 100% of its air.

At this point both Kar and Cauc are permantly in the hands of Germany.  You can then bait the Allies to land in WE (since you pull out of it on G1), and then you put down your 11 inf and trade WE with US/UK and wait for Japan to back door Russia.

If they go to Fin, leaving your 7 arm alone, they won’t be able to ever get them out, since the next turn you can place 3 inf there, 2 more arm, and move 4 inf.  That is 7 inf, 9 arm + J ftrs

Not only will G have 11 inf placed on rd 1 but then (with kar and cauc attack) have 13-14 inf for rd 2.  You can even gamble an Egy attack with 1,inf, 1 arm vs. 1 inf 1 arm since it will be 4pts to 4 pts.

Russia will have no ability to keep J out of Novo since there armor and ftrs were killed.

Japan may also be able to go straight for Yak on J1, and kill the rest of the Russian inf.  Leaving Russia with a total of 2 inf and 1 arm after rd 1.

This is very very very bad.  Germany doesn’t need to do much after that.

From what I’ve seen of PE, the important thing is to keep your Russia army alive.
I’m just thinking, if I saw the stack, I would ignore the Atlantic and take out 90-95% of the Russian army before the UK and US can land ftrs for defense.

This is all based on the ability to take Kar with 7 arm, which I think is the case in LL assuming loss of most if not all ftrs.

[Avin]

As I said, I think I’d like to play it out trying PE myself. After this current game is over of course. Any takers? ncscswitch, given your previous stance on playing LowLuck, I doubt you’d be willing; what about you DarthMaximus?

[DarthMaximus]

Sure.  I wouldn’t mind seeing how stuff works out.

I do remember SHP bought a bom (I think 2) with Ger to help out his attack on Russia on rd 2.  Although that may have been with a 24 bid.

Just let me know when you are ready to start.

[Guest]

Here is some of what I think about PE.  First PE is not a strategic bid it is a statistical one.  Even if you make the “wrong” moves with PE you will still win a certain % of the time in spite of yourself b/c of the dice.  With an African bid this is not so you can lose b/c of one very minor mistake, or you can lose w/o serious mistakes by not playing “efficiently” enough.

So lets breakdown a couple of the types of PE bids you might see.  First I am inclined to think that an 8 unit PE bid is too much b/c you can split it 6/2 btwn Ukr and EEuro and I think assuming average dice ie LL you will always lose.  If I am wrong then someone please explain how to beat this.  With a 7 unit PE bid you have essentially 4 options for placement.  One is to go 6/1 Ukr-EEuro, the second is 6/1 Ukr-Libya, the third is to go 7-Ukr and the final is to go 5/2 Ukr-EEuro.  First the split Euro-Afro bid is really bad b/c it invites an attack on Manch rather than preventing it with an all Euro bid hitting Manch is incredibly risky.  With an all Ukr bid you really aren’t maximizing your potential and the Russians IMO should ignore your Baltic fleet and attack 3inf 2arm 2ftrs against EEuro as well as hit Manch.  This gives them the ability to hold Karelia while reducing Japans threat greatly.  Should Germany go for a turn 2 kill of karelia ie buying all armor the Russians with UK help(ftrs) should still be able to hold Karelia.  Concessions in Africa or Asia might have to be made ie not attacking Kwang or giving Germany AES for a turn but thats it and thats all.  Manch justifies itself w/o Kwang and once Germany can’t get Karelia they are done for.  This is essentially the weakness of a inf bid into Libya as well.

With a split Euro bid between EEuro and Ukr the 5-2 is actually better than the 6-1 b/c the 6-1 gives Russia more chances to roll the dice and get lucky.  Essentially, this is all PE is anyway and if you feel like you aren’t going to get a better shot at hurting Germany Ukr on R1 v 6-1 is a logical conclusion.  Especially b/c any attack against EEuro is going to be risky.  Russia can either hit EEuro with 3inf 3arm ftr or 3inf 2arm 2ftrs but either way they are giving something up.  With the former they are conceeding a German stack of Cauc on G1 and thus Karelia on the next turn which makes it advantageous for Russia to attack Manch on R1 b/c they have to in order to survive.  If they choose the latter then they are taking an enormous risk that they will not take and thus will open themselves up to a turn 1 German attack of Karelia.  Either way it has a huge downside but the drawback for Germany is that Russia can always take the risk, get lucky and win the game by out rolling the Germans.

This brings me to why 5-2 Ukr/EEuro is the best IMO.  If Germany bids for 1armor and puts it in EEuro along with 1inf then EEuro is all but unattackable b/c Russia would be conceeding Karelia.  Either they don’t take EEuro and Germany attacks Karelia, or Russia does it to get the ftr but then backs out of Karelia in which case they are conceeding 7units at 2(14) for defense b/c 1inf must be left in Kar or Cauc to picket, but only killing 7units with a combined attack value of 13.  This is not a huge but a significant loss to the Russians who can’t afford such losses on R1 against a PE bid.  So that brings us back to the Ukr attack that DM tried against me, and since Ukr has only 5inf bid into it it seems very inviting.  However, as DM found out doing so is attacking into a deadzone and but for lucky Russian dice where they can retreat safely to karelia or Cauc, meaning Germany rolls under their defense rolls by at least 2-3 units, you can expect the Germans to counterattack either Cauc or Karelia where ever the retreat takes places.  Should you opt to take Ukr as with the EEuro attack you are going to have to give up Karelia either by getting attacked or conceeding it which in turn means you are giving up more defense of Russia than you are killing in attack strength in Ukr.  Russia trades 11units @2(22) to kill 11units with an attack value of 17.  As you can see this is even worse than the EEurope attack for this exchange.

So you can essentially see that PE is an “unbeatable” strategy b/c it relies on statistical not tactical manipulation to win.

[Guest]

All I can say in response to the simluations and the counter posts…

The allies ahve to get a HELL of a lot of fighters to Russia ASAP!

And the UK and US need to go balls to the wall in Europe… D-day after D-day…

[Guest]

A ftr heavy approach is one possibility but ultimately its not a solvent one assuming the Axis responds appropriately.  For one the UK/US has to build some sort of ground force with which to challenge Fortress Europe.  IMO the US should not be building much air and the UK should build only 1ftr or so a turn so in effect the Allies can build only ~2 ftrs per turn for Russia either 2UK ftrs plus some guys or 1US and 1 UK.

However, there is an Axis counter to this and that is to play Japan different as well.  While its not an obvious conclusion to reach Japan under a PE bid doesn’t really need to worry about Asia b/c Russia has to defend its capital against Germany and therefore can’t press eastward so Japan should get Yakut,Sfe,China, Sink and India pretty easily.  This means that they can even very early on commit heavily to an air campaign, and if Japan builds a few bombers the first couple turns they can do some serious damage to Russia.  Enough damage in fact so that by turn 4-5 or so Russia has no income left.  This is actually more damaging to Russia than building up in order to take Novo and surrounding Moscow with Japan and Germany .  Anyway at this point the Allies can do nothing but add air to Russia which they will lose once Moscow becomes tundefendable and attacked.  Ultimately, Japan and Germany should be able to kill moscow before the Allies can get to Germany.  A side benefit to a Japanese air campaign is that the bmbs which strike Moscow can reach Karelia on the same turn and therefore the extra air by Japan say 4ftrs + a bmb buildup will pressure the Allied fleets in the Atlantic making them less effective as well.  For example, if it comes to the point where Britain wants to siege Europe by going to Spain/Berlin then they have to move prior to the Japanese move which will either expose their fleet or the US fleet to Japanese air attack.  If they stay and try to shuck to WEuro/FinNor then it is really easy for the Axis to counter this by an IPM mechanic which blocks the Allies from going to WEuro w/o first going to Spain b/c of the threat of counterattack but it also allows the Germans to continue their buildup too.

[221B Baker Street]

@AgentSmith:

by turn 4-5 or so Russia has no income left…Anyway at this point the Allies can do nothing but add air to Russia

AS:

I agree that what you say makes sense.

But couldn’t the US “leapfrog” from Norway into Moscow?  This would assume the US retreated at least one inf from Sinkang to Moscow and is able to deliver troops to Norway via the shuck, both of which should be possible by turn 5.  Then the US strafes Karelia with the inf. from Moscow and the forces in Norway, then retreats them all into Moscow.  I think the US would lose more than they gain by the strafe…but they will have suceeded in moving reinforcements to Moscow…which buys the Allies more time.

[Guest]

This is clever but ultimately the cost to the US is too great.  Generally speaking the offensive ability of the US is very limited ie they have only 2ftrs and a bmb which makes it hard to gain momentum without sacrificing their IPM either by building tanks.  The Japanese and Germans can also use their ftrs as a shield against this while leaving Berlin underdefended.  This works by moving around Jap-German ftrs btwn Karelia and Berlin so that that Allies cannot ever attack either.  I’ve not see this move you suggest attempted so it might work but I would be very inclined to think otherwise.  In otherwords I’d have to be beaten by it before I was willing to think it had any merit.  Keep in mind that with most PE bids the Axis is going to be going for a very quick victory so I’m not sure you’d ever have the time to mass up the troops necessary for such a grandiose plan as this.  It might work around turn 12-18 but I’m inclined to think the Axis should win easily by then or not at all so this would therefore not be needed.

[DarthMaximus]

You can do it as early as rd 4 with the US.

(this is approx)

Rd 1 - 2 inf to Fin  (retreat Sin inf to Novo then Mos)
Rd 2 - 4 inf to Fin
Rd 3 - 6 inf to Fin

Rd 4 - attack with planes ~14 inf (2 from mos), maybe 1 arm.

Retreat to Mos.

Now whether this helps or not???  If you lose a plane in the attack probably not, as you would need to be +2 inf to cover the def pts or +4 inf to cover the cost.  But if you can retreat more than 2 inf to Mos without losing a plane it may be better.  Maybe you don’t bring in planes or just the bom or something.

But with 14 inf, 1 arm, 1 bom all the Germans would need is ~16 inf and 9 arm in Kar to inflict heavy loses in 1 rd of battle.  Now throw on a G ftr or 2 and it probably won’t be worth it of the US.  And by rd 4 I’m sure G could have +20 inf there.

[DarthMaximus]

Wouldn’t the best strat be to tech heavy with the Allies early???

With PE, strategy is out the window anyway.

UK buys 6 dice, US buys 6 dice.  And hope for IT or HB.  It’ll still take Germany 2 rds to take Mos.

With 6 dice the odds of getting no tech is ~34%, so 66% of the time UK will get 1 or more techs, and same for the US.

Would this not shift the balance back to giving the Allies a shot.  I suppose the Axis could tech as well, but I’m guessing not till at least rd 3, after Russia falls.

[221B Baker Street]

But what are the odds of getting IT or HB (the only techs that will really help the allies – super subs won’t do them any good)?

Wouldn’t it be 66% * 2/6 = 22% for the UK and the same for the US … or about 44% that one of them will get either IT or HB…which wouldn’t be too bad of a gamble (and the US could chose to NOT roll for tech if the UK did get one of them).Â

The only problems that I see is that this one turn build delay could mean Russia falls before these tech advantages can really have an impact on the game…even with IT or HB can the Allies still win if Russia falls?  And if the Allies don’t get these techs, then they had better keep rolling for technology because I don’t see how Russia can stand.

[DarthMaximus]

Yeah, it would be a total gamble.

Plus I reviewed the LL tech rules, they are a lot different and would prevent this strat from being employed.

So this would only be good for an ADS game, and in ADS you can always get good defensive rolls so maybe it wouldn’t be worth it after all.

[Guest]

Wouldn’t the best strat be to tech heavy with the Allies early???

No absolutely not b/c to defeat the Axis the Allies are going to have to force them out of Karelia rather than beating them out to this end the Allies need to be able to create enormous pressure in the West.  A tech strat leaves too many t’s not crossed and i’s not dotted and a m84 lurch becomes a real possibility.  As far as the Sink move something not mentioned above is that this might be impossible as well.  Consider that if Manch isn’t hit and b/c of it the Japanese can try to push several attacks they might not otherwise including an attack on Sink.  If the goal is to reduce the overall # of Allied troops in Moscow then this would be better than trying to establish a strong base in Asia given that Asia will be conceeded to you very early in the game.  In otherwords Japan just might attack China, Sink, and or Yakut.

In general the problem with a tech yahtzee against a PE bid is that should it not work on the first turn or so then the Allies are going to be doomed b/c they can’t recover the lost time needed to rebuild their fleet.

[DarthMaximus]

Yeah.  But would this not be the answer to how you beat the 8 inf PE bid.

Gamble with tech, hope to get HB with UK and/or US then bom Germany to zero cash?

If the Axis win 24 bid 95-100% of the time and the odds of getting HB are better than that, then would that not be the best option?

21-23 bid, you can still win conventionally, so yeah why gamble with the tech.

[Guest]

Yeah.  But would this not be the answer to how you beat the 8 inf PE bid.

Gamble with tech, hope to get HB with UK and/or US then bom Germany to zero cash?

If the Axis win 24 bid 95-100% of the time and the odds of getting HB are better than that, then would that not be the best option?

21-23 bid, you can still win conventionally, so yeah why gamble with the tech.

Except that you aren’t taking advantage of the potential for dicings to happen.  Its always better to have some units down on the board to use to take advantage of situations that do occur.  Whats more if you point all your eggs in the tech basket right away then you are going to need to get it very fast otherwise you’re toast.  However, if you build a very modest navy for both the Allies you can still do essentially the same thing but for a few more turns a little later in the game.  IMO a lot of what it takes to beat a PE bid(especially one @24) is to stall effectively.  If you can do this you should will with or without tech which is always the best time to tech.

[DarthMaximus]

I agree, it was a total “yahtzee” counter, if you can even call it a counter.

My only point was, if I (for example) cannot beat a 24 PE bid no matter what I do, meaning I lose 100% of the time, why not try tech?

If the odds of getting HB with one or both the other Allies (UK/US) on rd 1 are greater than 0%, which they are, then why not do it.

I would by no means call this a skillful win, it would simply be a lucky win.

I’m not a fan of the PE play to begin with.  I’d like to learn how to better counter it, but I do consider it a “putting all your eggs in one basket” strat.  You are going for a kill by rd 2, 3, or 4.  So I’d see no problem countering it with an “all your eggs in one basket strat”.

Now this is just personal preference but I perfer the games to have a little more strategic value than “did I bid enough to Europe so no matter what Russia does they will fall by rd 3”.
That’s no fun, I can play that by myself on the CD version.

I’d be much more willing to give larger bids to ensure a more strategic game.

Which of course leads to the dilemma of your other thread.

[221B Baker Street]

For me, technology rolls are useful only when:

1. I have already won the game, but my opponent refuses to concede.  If I get HB, then it becomes easier to convince my opponent to concede by crushing him quicker.

2. I have already lost the game.  If I get lucky and get HB or IT, then there is again the opportunity to win.

In the case of a large PE bid, unlucky R1 rolls and lucky G1 rolls (ADS) resulting in a fabulous position for the Axis by UK1, then I might believe the Allies are already losing and consider the Yahtzee roll as you suggest DM.  I’d probably buy some items (bombers and/or navy) and tech rolls at the same time because as AS stated, you do need some units on the board.