Axis victory

[Jennifer]

First off, there is no possible way to stop a G3 sea lion under the current incarnation of the rules (as of 1/3/2012).  What is debatably is whether or not this means Russia is unstopable.  I say no, I say you can still easily contain and push the Russians back, it’s only a matter of if America can stop you from winning before you do win.  I justify this with the fact you still have 13 transports, that’s a bloody aweful mess of units you can land in Russia each round and something Russia has to consider before sending armies into the Balkans and without whole armies in the Balkans, they’re not holding them against Italy.

[Alsch91]

That’s a very good point, Jen.

The counter-weight to Sealion is a stronger Russia, and one that is on the offense quickly.
And with the altered Russian NO, that Russia can get even larger.
However, people often forget to keep in mind that Russia’s infrastructure is not designed to support a sustained offense.
They only have 2 minor ICs in range to make much of a difference, while the Axis have 3 Major ICs in the area that are more than capable of pumping infantry to push Russia out.

Even if Russia is making ~48 a turn while Germany is making ~60 a turn, Germany will be able to push Russia out much quicklier than those numbers suggest because of those differences in production capacity.

And Germany’s complete naval supremacy after a successful Sealion prevents a strong Russia from advancing further than they’d be able to otherwise.

So even though Russia does have an advantage initially, it does go away quickly.  That’s the issue that determines the balance in a Sealion game.

[knp7765]

I wasn’t saying that Sealion wouldn’t happen or that Germany wouldn’t be successful at it.  I was saying that depending on what the UK player does, it could be rather hard for Germany, requiring them to use a lot of resources, or it could even be easy, requiring Germany to use less to take London and therefore have more to start out against the Russians.

I have seen games where Germany went for Sealion and the Brits defended so well that while Germany captured London, they used up a lot of ground forces and even lost a lot of their air force in doing it.  Also, the naval investment is pretty big too.  A carrier and 10-12 transports isn’t cheap and isn’t as likely to help against Russia.  Yes, you could use them to amphibious assault Leningrad, but if you lose a lot of land units taking England, you will have to buy that much more to refill those transports.  What’s happening on the eastern border during this?  It just could be that in taking London, Germany could end up in a sorry state against Russia.

I have also seen games where UK made the wrong choices, like investing too much in Africa or trying to rebuild the fleet, and Germany ends up pulling off a Sealion with only 4 or 5 transports and their air force.  In this case, Germany will still have a lot of stuff to throw at Russia and have all of England’s money to boot.

Of course, a lot depends on the roll of the dice.  Unless you use low-luck that is.

[Bigtiti]

any people who keep on playing and don’t mind VC’s?
i see that most of the times axis win, even with US in the pacific.

[Jennifer]

I find that without grabbing a VC win early, the axis almost always lose.  Then again, that could be because I play to win and then get talked into playing beyond winning after having won already.

[Noll]

Jenn there’s also the economy win, you can win as Axis when you reach a superior economy and you can secure it.

[Jennifer]

I dont have the rules with me, but I believe the only way the axis actually win the game is to take the VCs needed.

[fanofbond]

I don’t see how you guys think the USA can do anything against Japan.  When I play Japan takes India turn five every time and there is nothing that the allies can do to stop it.  Japan sets up shop on the coast off french indo china and supports them selves with an airbase and naval base in yunnan.  Now they have air cover and maneuverability in the south.  The US can’t even risk putting its fleet danger down there until turn 5 or turn 6 depending on how lucky the allies are with defense rolls.  Now that is too little too late.  Once India has fallen its game over what is stopping Japan from sending ground troops at Russia now.  All Japan needs to do is keep reinforcing its Navy off indo china and they will build an airbase in french indo china and hainan.  Now they can scramble 9 planes and they have all their navy which is being reinforced.  The allies can’t win in the Pacific unless the US completely forgets about Europe the whole game.  Then its a German victory over Russia.

[Jennifer]

fanofbond,

Are you referring to Alpha 3 rules, Out of the Box Rules or?

It makes a difference, you see.  OOB Japan’s going to get India every time because of a Major Complex in Malaya, but you can’t do that in Alpha 3 rules (or Alpha 2) because Malaya is not Japanese territory - it’s conquered land.

In Alpha 2 and Alpha 3 the Americans can get pretty big in the Pacific and you can really do a lot more than they are given credit for.  I’ve seen Japan reduced to a smoldering island by round 8 numerous times (mainly by being in charge of the Mighty MO and leading the way myself!) I just never see Tokyo conquered - like EVER.

[Cow]

for usa the balanced pacific approach seems to work well in dice games. usa from gibraltar has triple threat, uk, europe and africa. usa spending  30 ipc on naval every turn for pacific ain’t so bad, you only need 1 or 2 transports really and you are a threat… link up with the anzac squad. india should last at least 5 rounds, there comes a point where u don’t leave india. if germany does london, russia should have plenty of breathing room for awhile depending on how many german units survived.

as far as axis goes. germany really only has a few choices, russia or london. italy can do 3 different things, go for africa, try to bombard russians after busting turkey, or provide ground forces for french territories. Japan pretty much goes for china and india then turns attention to ANZAC.

If you go all out europe with USA there comes a point in the game where india’s demise is certain and u can see it coming. then you have to roll out pacific or axis gets the victory conditions necessary on that half of the map.

~~
victory conditions aren’t one half of the map anymore, I believe. So you can still race for europe before japan surges past india , china and soviet far east.

[Jennifer]

Last time I checked it’s still by map - COW.

Allies:  Take Tokyo or Berlin
Axis: Take 8 European Victory Cities or 6 Pacific Victory Cities

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If I am going Pacific, it’s because Sea Lion did not happen first of all.  Secondly, I’m going hard Pacific with 80% or more going for warships.  I want 4 transports and assorted ground units (5 infantry, 2 artillery, armor) on them and I need units for holding Alaska as well probably.

I’m happiest with 4 battleships and 4 carriers, (dds, cas, sss etc as well of course) but don’t care how that combo comes together.

[Cow]

Also as Japan, don’t start war before london is taken, unless USA is an idiot that did not setup to reinforce it if war were to occur, then by all means kick it off.

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

Also as Japan, don’t start war before london is taken, unless USA is an idiot that did not setup to reinforce it if war were to occur, then by all means kick it off.

Not always an option.  If I want Calcutta, odds are good I have to attack on round 2.  I’ve been playing around trying to get a round 4 sack of Calcutta but there’s not enough resources to pull it off, unless India does something really wrong.

[Cow]

Depends who you play with Jenn, this is alpha, not the final rules. Change whatever you want to test new stuff out, new gameplay.

Anyway Jenn if germany sets up for sea lion your japan is likely to fight china only till london is taken or the americans land fighters/bombers inside making the battle from 90% to slightly below a coinflip. you always talk of taking london and india on round 3, but the people I play with don’t give those opportunities even with your “leet” strategy. sarcasm here.
~
most of the time you get an ultimatum, calcutta pushes out with USA set up to reinforce UK / sink sea lion. Those games can get crazy sometimes. Especially if axis go for both.

[Cow]

allies are trickier to play as it requires planning and counter strategy. Axis act first with allies setting up in response.

[Cow]

I believe garg plays this on low luck, have to ask him what he starts bidding down to.

[Jennifer]

Actually, Cow, if I set up Sea Lion, I usually set up Calcutta as well so that they both fall on Round 3.  It means America comes in the war on Round 2 instead of Round 3 and Russia comes in on Round 3 instead of Round 4, but with 45 IPC worth of land permanently taken from the hands of the Allies, it’s worth it. (No, I am not saying they go and take it all, I am saying the allies cannot collect that money.)

[Cow]

So round 3, you aren’t taking london, because usa flies some stuff in there and uk bought all guys for itself.  India sees ya coming falls back to calcutta. Guess you aren’t taking london.

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

So round 3, you aren’t taking london, because usa flies some stuff in there and uk bought all guys for itself.  India sees ya coming falls back to calcutta. Guess you aren’t taking london.

Unless I missed something very obvious, even if the war starts on round 2, the absolute most America could get to London is a few bombers (4) with defense value 1.  To do this they have to buy 3 bombers for E. USA (C. USA cannot make it).  They can then fly them to London on Round 2 when they are at war.  That is the sum total of what you can bring.  Since Germany already has 93% odds if England brings every possible unit home, these 4 bombers are not going to make a whole big difference really, it might drop the odds to 89% (assuming 1% decrease for each strategic bomber added) but cost America a round’s worth of purchases and 4 strategic bombers.

As for Calcutta, if you drop back I take India as light as I can and stage for a second take if you try to liberate.  I’ve seen this ploy already and it’s probably worse for India than it is for Japan.  What did work okay (considering Calcutta was lost permanently and Japan won the game by VCs) is retreating the units through the Middle East and using them to hold Egypt.

[Cow]

are you playing low luck or dice? and bombers inside of UK makes a big difference due to cannon fodder factor. it is also why people bid 3 for allies to place an infantry there so usa doesn’t have buy so many bombers.