@Frood:
@Jennifer:
I used to have the percentage up on my signature. My fighters were around 33% hits, my attacking infantry were close to 40% hits. It’s weird, but that’s just the way it is for me. I attack with 2 Infantry, Fighter vs Infantry, odds are that my infantry will hit, my fighter will miss and the defender will hit.
What could possibly make that happen consistently?
Can you show me here with the inhouse roller? Roll 100 Infantry and 100 Fighters, let’s see what happens.
Jen, maybe you are able to mesmerize the dices?!!??! :-o
I am with Frood this time, but 100 inf and 100 fig are not “statistically significative”. 1.000.000 inf and 1.000.000 Fig begin to have a minimum significance from a Great Numbers Law point of view. But they are still few. Maybe we need 1.000.000.000 but it is still too small!
Really we should calculate a mathematical limit for the number of dice rolled by Jen that goes to infinity to check if her “frequency” of scoring 1 is greater of the “probability” of scoring 1 with an ordinary dice. :-D
This is the point. Probability of scoring one with a dice is always 1/6, no matter which unit is rolling, no matter how many “1” you have already scored. Probability is defined “a priori” and do not change.
Frequency of scoring 1 is the result obtained from the division: number of “1” rolled/total numbers of rolls attempted. It is calculated “a posteriori” and change during the game. The more dices are rolled the more the frequency tends to the probability, this is a mathematical law.
Law of Great Numbers guarantee that the greater are the number of rolls you attempt then your frequency will be nearer to the probability.
Law of Great Number do not guarantee that after five “6” your next roll will be a “1”, you have the same probaility of rolling a “6” also after five of them!
This is the big problem!
Returning to A&A, IMHO good strategy means to not depending “always and totally” from the result of dices! Players should always try to have a reserve plan, to be used if the battle goes bad. Naturally there are always the probability to score an huge amount of useless 6 in the decisive battle… because the Law of Large Naumbers may not impose nothing to the dice results! :-(