Warwick,
I suppose time will tell, and the you regard this as the intellectual and civil theorizing I believe it to be, without rancor or arrogance.
Personally, the fact that China is effectively neutralized until it “eats” itself or Japan declares war is of significance to me.
The IPP Japan could gain by sinking resources into that backwater doesn’t justify prioritizing it over the DEI, India or Australia. Against a skilled Chinese opponent and generous Allies, China becomes a festering wound in which the Japanese must devote proportionally greater resources, chase the enemy into the hills, and extend its borders in a long flank.
I’m of a mind that those Wartime Bonuses in China can be plucked whenever Japan desires to, China will not grow any stronger, while the FEC, ANZAC, and the Soviet, will.
I think it is feasible in the early to mid game to safely ignore China, because:
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A. Initially Japan needs a turn or two to prepare to attack China.
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B. The initial butchers bill does not equate to IPP from territorial gains.
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C. The initial territorial gains are negated anyway due to the loss of the Peacetime Bonus with USA.
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D. The Chinese will be rendered safe (by its not attacking warlords) or stagnant (by its attacking the warlords, killing units that would be theirs, and losing Units in the process.
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E. The Chinese can be dealt with at leisure. Japan can declare war on its terms, at any moment of its choosing.
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F. By ignoring China, Japan becomes a greater threat in the pacific, putting more enemy resources in the pacific and away from more lucrative territory in Europe.
If players put the war ahead of their specific national gains…this in my mind is what separates the mediocre players from the excellent.
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G. If China is neutral, Japan can range and strike in force anywhere it wishes. Pearl Harbor, Calcutta, Sydney, Vladivostok. While still threatening to strike China at any point. Every enemy unit gaurding a coastline, is one troop less firing its weapons, at Japanese or at fellow Chinese.
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H. Japan, through all this, can still make sizable income from the DEI as well as the income from wherever it chose to send its strike force.
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I. With a sufficient strike force (built from the money you havn’t poured into china), Japan has a chance at capturing either Sydney or Calcutta, which means a stolen IPP and a dead Power. That alone makes up for missed income from China.
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J. Lastly, It’s fun being off the history books!
These are my opinions of course, and my games also have modified rules which may effect vanilla strategy. Chiefly tweaked air combat, and sea movement limitations.
In regards to what you said Warwick, about Germany not ready to invade Soviet’s in tandem with Japan…what’s the point in that case? It would be stupid for Japan to go to war if not in lockstep with Germany. Historically that is what allowed Soviet’s to rush troops over to the West
Germany cannot invade Russia until after Paris falls? Im not sure why you think that! Germany can invade anytime it likes.
In fact, I’d be willing to say it’s easier to go into Russia before setting foot in France!
France and Germany share a single border with a strong French Fortification. Even if Germany goes through the Lowlands, France can mobilize a sufficient force to halt a Germany that splits its force between Poland and France. With only two territories to be concerned with, France is ready.
But, with Germany’s Lightning War, it can Blitz through Poland and into Soviet lands across a wide front, and stab deep into Russia. Germany can even reach Moscow. Soviets cannot bring a significant force to bear for at least one more German turn. At which point it is limited by factory production.
If you have a map handy take a glance: If Germany can Blitz twice in Lightning War, that means any tanks and Mechs in East Prussia can be in Moscow on the turn Germany is at war. Combine that with a $14 purchase by the Soviet, the Soviet’s border clashes with Japan, perhaps the Soviet’s out of position, the Soviets surprised -1 defense, and an additional German round before the Soviet’s can spend their now less then $46.
The Soviet’s are on the ropes.
Germany has probably gained more then the IPP value of France.
Meanwhile the French have only one border with Germany, and the British are probably concerned about Italians. The USA is too far away. Combine this with a good few border clashes by the Japanese, and perhaps an outright war when Germany declares war, and I think France fades a little in importance.
But this is just my experience and thoughts. Everyone has different experiences and strategies, and apparently there is more then one way to skin a cat.
Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate.
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Cheers!