@captainjack:
Bunnies - If I send everything to Ukraine (except for maybe a tank) does that leave me enough strength to attack WRussia successfully? Also, how does that open the door for German tanks to push through to Moscow? Thanks!
Following are my ASSUMPTIONS about what a normal game looks like. Take with grain of salt. or beer! beeeeer
1. If planning Ukraine/West Russia, note where Germany places its bid units. If Germany places unit(s) in Ukraine, you may choose to do something else on R1 (like WRus/Belorussia, or WRus only which by the way I don’t advocate even if Darth Maximus does like it, note that I consider Darth Maximus’s stuff to generally be worth reading), or continue to do Ukr/West Russia with three tanks.
2. If planning Ukraine/West Russia, probable first turn build should be 2 inf 2 art (place Caucasus), 2 tank (Moscow), or 5 inf 1 art 1 tank (place 3 inf 1 art Caucasus, 2 inf 1 tank Moscow)
1A. Ukraine 3 tanks / West Russia remainder of forces: High probability capture Ukraine. Low probability of taking game-significant numbers of casualties at West Russia. (The R1 attack on W. Russia is a multiround combat, the absence of a tank decreases Russia’s hitting power, so the Germans survive longer. This still usually results in acceptable losses for Russia if “regular” dice come up. If “bad” dice come up, though, the Russians can lose enough infantry to change the game conditions.)
1B. Ukraine 2 tanks / West Russia remainder of forces: Moderate probability capture or destroy Ukraine forces. Very low probability of taking game-significant numbers of casualties at West Russia. A fair number of times, you’ll see the Ukraine attack result in 2 Russian fighters surviving and one German fighter surviving, or some such thing. Russian fighters are far too precious to drop for a lousy 3 IPC territory even if throwing a German fighter on top.
The anticipated response under “normal” conditions is the usual game, except that the Germans have a slight to moderate initial ground unit disadvantage (lost German attack units at Ukraine), and the Germans have a slightly decreased air force initially allowing the Allies to build less defense in the Pacific. If choosing to hit with 3 Russia tanks, loss of the extra Russia tank is pretty significant for Russia in the mid-early game, though, and Russia has decreased hitting power when the Germans and Japs near Moscow. I consider “normal” conditions acceptable for both sides (maybe a bit less so for the Russians).
The anticipated response under “good” conditions is the usual game, except the Russians can have a very strong force in Ukraine, which makes the Germans far weaker on the initial turns. On G1, the Germans have to attack the Russia tanks (Russia tanks are really good to kill), but since most of the German airforce is tied up with UK targets (Anglo-Egypt, Gibraltar), there isn’t much to spare, and any German tanks committed to Ukraine can be countered by Russia’s R2 Caucasus/West Russia attack into Ukraine. This is pretty bad for Germany; Germany can recover, but it’s nasty and tough.
The anticipated response under “bad” conditions (some combination of Russia won Ukraine with 1 tank 2 fighter surviving or less, and/or Russia taking lots of casualties at West Russia) - depending on Russia’s position, Germany may choose any of to hit Ukraine and/or Karelia, use the German Med fleet to try to grab Caucasus early (planning G2 retake followed by J2 fighter reinforcement), use German air against Russian targets (REALLY aggressive), build all tanks on G1. This is pretty bad for Russia.
My assessment of 3 tanks to Ukraine on R1 is that it CAN be good, especially with good dice, but bad dice can really mess with you, and moderate dice don’t result in a “good” outcome for Russia either (IMHO). 2 tanks to Ukraine on R1 can also be good, but there’s a bigger chance of failing to take Ukraine / kill the German fighter, and if that’s the case, you’d have done better to do West Russia/Belorussia (depletes German forward infantry so Germany can’t do nearly as much on G1, snags a 2 IPC territory, decent odds, little risk)
2. How does it open the door for German tanks? Russian bad dice means a potentially REALLY nasty G1. Usually G1 just does some light trading, but if the German Med fleet comes in, the German air comes in, AND the Russians had bad dice meaning fewer units, AND Germany built mass tanks to try to storm Moscow before the Allies can reinforce? Germany can let Africa and the Atlantic go to pot; if Germany can put up even a minimal resistance at Berlin against Allied invasion, and Germany storms Moscow (with Japanese help), the game’s over. Once the Axis grab Moscow, the German tanks reverse to the west, Germany and Japan get a grip on the Pacific and Africa, and the Axis just start messing with the Allies.
Usually if the Germans build all tanks, Russia just infantrys up, but with an aggressive failed R1, the Russians have a lot less units in Europe to fight with.