The trick to screwing over Russia on the first round is to throw everything, literrally everything at Karelia on the very first round, and buying tons tanks so you can reinforce your front on the second turn.
I initially thought so as well. But these folks showed me the implementation of US and UK strategies that I had never seen developed to the level they use them that preclude Germany from HOLDING Karelia to be able to build there in G2.
To take Karelia against the best defensive buildup that Russia can muster requires your Air Force. But if you use your Air Force against Karelia, the UK navy is intact, and does an amphib in Karelia (2 BB’s, 3 fighters, 1 bomber, 2 INF, 1 tank) to kick Germany’s few remaining forces out in UK1.
Even if UK fails to kick Germany out of Karelia, what forces does Germany have left? 2 INF in Western, 4 INF and a tank in Eastern, 1-3 tanks in Karelia, 2 fighters, and a bomber; and their “total tank” build of 6 tanks in Germany. That is a BEST case survival scenario.
Going forward against this, you have Russia building 7 (or more) INF per round, UK with a “full” transport fleet to use against Germany and the US also with a transport fleet that starts hitting Germany in US3.
Believe me, I used to agree whole heartedly with you, but failing to take out the Allied naval forces in the 1st and 2nd rounds is certain quick death for Germany. And without them, you can;t crack Karelia. Even if you can, you can;t crack it with enough force to threaten Russia the following round.