@ncscswitch:

OK, tell me where I am screwed up in my thinking here…

Russia does the “normal” Karelia Stack:Â 19 INF, 3 ARM, 2 FIG.Â Also takes out the German Baltic fleet with AF, Russia fleet to UK as normal.Â 1 INF in Caucuses, Evenk pulled back to Moscow, SFE tank and Yakut INF to Evenk, and 1 SFE INF to Yakut to block Japan

That means that Germany can attack Karelia with 18 INF, 7 ARM, plus air support

Against that Karelia Stack, without AF, Germany has only a 14% chance of winning.Â They can bring 16 INF and 7 armor (3 from Norway, 3 from EE, 3 original from Ukraine, plus 7 bid units)Â Armor from Norway, Ukraine, Eastern, Germany and Southern.Â It takes 3 fighters to get that win percentage up to 52%, leaving only 2 figs and 1 bomber against the UK fleet.Â IF Germany goes “all in” on Karelia, they take it 90% of the time with 4-6 tanks and most of their AF (lose a fig to AA).Â

But that means ignoring the Allies fleets, allowing UK to immediately land 2 INF, 1 ARM, plus a support shot and bomber if they hit a territory with troops in it (say to attack Karelia if Germany took it heavier than 6 ARM remaining…).Â Also, UK now gets to fly 3 figs to Russia (2 from UK, 1 from India) to aid in defense in G2.Â Noway was taken by UK (vacated in the Karelia attack), or Karelia was weakened.Â US follows up with 2 more INF to Norway, plus 1 FIG to Norway from eastern (if Norway was taken).

With Karelia forces (figure 6 ARM), plus all AF (figure 4 FIGS and 1 BOM), Russia with the 2 INF from Evenk, an 8 INF build in R2, and 3 UK figs only falls 16% of the time.Â To be above 50% chance of taking Russia, Germany has to take Karelia with all 7 INF and 2 INF surviving, plus their 4 figs and 1 BOM (1 fig lost to AA in Karelia).

Failing to take Russia on G2, the bid is spent, the Allies have had to spend nothing on navy have built their trannies in Turn 1, and already have forces in Norway.Â

G1 Caucuses strike results coming up…

Mostly true, but a couple minor things. I’m going to assume playing LL (since that is the Avin has been playing).

If you bring in all 6 planes (on G1), you are guarenteed to only lose 1, so that means with losing ftrs, you can take with all 7 armor. And you can still kill the tranny off E Can.

The bulk of the Allied fleet is irrelevant.

The goal is to take or at the very least cripple Russia early.

UK can suicide an attack on 7 arm on UK 1 but will only put a minor dent while losing everything, and a Russia attack of 2 inf and 1 arm won’t do much either as Japan will land 2 ftrs for cover.

The important thing in the taking of Kar is the killing of the entire Russian army, more importanly 75% of its armor and 100% of its air.

At this point both Kar and Cauc are permantly in the hands of Germany. You can then bait the Allies to land in WE (since you pull out of it on G1), and then you put down your 11 inf and trade WE with US/UK and wait for Japan to back door Russia.

If they go to Fin, leaving your 7 arm alone, they won’t be able to ever get them out, since the next turn you can place 3 inf there, 2 more arm, and move 4 inf. That is 7 inf, 9 arm + J ftrs

Not only will G have 11 inf placed on rd 1 but then (with kar and cauc attack) have 13-14 inf for rd 2. You can even gamble an Egy attack with 1,inf, 1 arm vs. 1 inf 1 arm since it will be 4pts to 4 pts.

Russia will have no ability to keep J out of Novo since there armor and ftrs were killed.

Japan may also be able to go straight for Yak on J1, and kill the rest of the Russian inf. Leaving Russia with a total of 2 inf and 1 arm after rd 1.

This is very very very bad. Germany doesn’t need to do much after that.

From what I’ve seen of PE, the important thing is to keep your Russia army alive.

I’m just thinking, if I saw the stack, I would ignore the Atlantic and take out 90-95% of the Russian army before the UK and US can land ftrs for defense.

This is all based on the ability to take Kar with 7 arm, which I think is the case in LL assuming loss of most if not all ftrs.