I’d argue for fluke or bad Allied play for a thrid German airstrike.
While you can probably do a 2nd strike esp if you buy a plane in rd 1 for Ger. I think that can be more costly to the Axis.
What were the Allies doing?
1) Russia should be able to at the very least kill the 2 baltic ships on R1, making a G1 strike costly. (not to mention possible loss of ftr in Ukr)
2) If G buys a ftr, UK does not have to buy an AC, they can get away with 2 ftrs or 2 boms, saving cash, etc. The US can buy an AC or wait till UK2
3) Once G commits its airforce to the UK sz and 24 IPC’s on 2 ftrs (rd 1 and rd 2), Russia should be able to take EE with ease on R3.
4) How does Russia fall on J4 with no German threat? Again with Germany commiting to slowing down the UK, if you don’t want to play aggressive on the Western Front, certainly Russia can afford to strongly counter Japan.
I’m trying to do this in my head, but I think the most possible inf Japan can have to attack Russia on J4 is 11. I think you can have 17 by J5.
With no losses on J1-J3, I think you can attack with 11 inf, 1 arm, 5 ftrs, 1 bom.
This is not enough to take Moscow. Russia starts with 7 inf out East.
So, simply retreat (to Mos) and add 1 inf on R1, 2 inf on R2, now you see Germany is no threat and add 2 more on R3 and add 6 more on R4 with Russian ftrs and 4 arm. You’ll have 18 inf, 4 arm, 2 ftrs. Japan can’t take that.
And that is simply if Russia retreats to Moscow.
They should be able to keep Japan out of Novo for quite some time with no real German theat.
A couple of points:
One it was RR, so the Baltic Fleet was intact (2 subs plus figs on the first UK naval strike, losing no fighters and sinking 1 BB, 2 trans, and 1 sub. 1 fig took out the Eastern Canada tranny also. Lost 1 fig killing the Gibraltar BB.
Two, UK did the AC and tranny buy. US flew in 2 figs, 1 tranny. Second naval battle was 5 figs against 2 figs, 1 AC, and tranny. Lost 2 figs, and had build coming on board so only down 1 fig net from start.
Third, Russia did the Karelia Stack (emptying Russia and all but 1 in Caucuses in R1) Germany took Caucuses in G1 also. In R2, Russia re-took Caucuses, took Ukraine and took Norway for IPC boost (still had Karelia heavy).
Fourth, Japan did VERY well on J1, losing only 1 INF in the 3 territory take of India (fig had flown to assist will Germany med navy kill off in UK1, landing in Syria), China and Sinkiang. Manchuria was stacked to prevent Russians from coming in (figs plus 4 INF).
Fifth, Russia partially re-deployed Yakut Stack into Novo to block Japan advance (since no forces in Moscow to move up due to Karelia Stack). Russia, still having breathing room with Japan, built in Karelia in R2 preparing a strong move on Eastern and taking Germany. Move was insufficient number of forces, Novo fell in J2. J2, Japan does a tank build (4 tanks). Japan and Germany both SBR Russia in turn 2 and Turn 3.
Sixth, Russia takes Eastern in force. Builds in Russia. Japan uses Manchuria INF to kill remaining Yakut stack with AF, sends tanks to Sinkiang, lands figs in Novo. US takes Western Europe in US3.
And finally, Russia builds again in Russia, reduced amount due to repeated SBRs. Eastern Europe forces take Southern Europe. Japan sends 4 tanks, a half dozen INF, 5 figs, and a bomber. Japan takes with 1 tank, 2 figs and 1 bomber remaining, AF flies to Germany.
That was it folks, as near as I can recall from 2 days ago.
Okay, I didn’t know it was RR.
Yeah Germany should do well on G1.
But UK still does not have to buy an AC on UK 1. Bad move by the Brits, esp if All German planes survived and they bought 1.
There is no way Russia should let Novo fall on R2. You re-deploy your 7 inf from Yak to Novo on R2. Two Japanese inf won’t be able to take that. And on R2 you should buy 3 inf, 3 arm esp since Germany will be no threat. Most if not all units should be place in Moscow. At this point you can basically turn your entire Russian army against Japan.
Now Japan is looking at 7 inf in Yak, plus 3 inf, 7 arm, 2 ftrs in Mos that can counter Novo. Further you can still take all those ter on R2 and retreat to Mos on R3 (then move arm to Mos) with a placement. Now Japan is looking at 15-16 inf, 7 arm, 2 ftrs. If J takes the bait and goes to Novo heavy, they are going to get slaughtered.
I think your turnout had a lot to do with some questionable moves by Russia.
Certainly I think there were some good moves but I can’t see Russia letting J have Novo on R2, and I can’t see Mos falling on R4 with Ger being that weak.
Over Christmas weekend, since I was without internet access visiting family, I spent some spare time playing a game of Axis and Allies against myself using No-Luck (I used Jason Bilbrey’s combat simulator and always picked the most likely outcome to resolve each battle) to assess this strategy. My hypothesis was that even with a bid, this strategy fails. I very quickly saw that this would be very easy to show if UK did not purchase units on UK1, since the naval battle on GER3 would result in a German victory, but a very costly German victory of only one bomber remaining (and actually, the variation of results was quite high1), not enough to halt the production of any more transports nor defend adequately from attacks. So I decided to see if the strategy was feasible even if UK did purchase naval units on UK1.
I posted the game in the games forum, available here: http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=5677.0
I stopped after Japan2 - quite early yes, but far along enough to see that the game was not obviously decided, particularly because of Japan’s fighters coming to the aid of Germany in G3. So my conclusion is that with that sort of bid, this strategy is certainly a valid and useful one, particularly if the UK purchases naval units on UK1, although it is questionable otherwise.
1This battle would involve 6 fighters and 2 bombers (or 7 fighters and 1 bomber) against 1 AC, 2 fighters, and I assumed 7 transports (3 purchased for each of UK and US - it could certainly be more than this). With the 2 bombers, there is a 24% chance the attacker will win with 1 bomber remaining, a 23% chance the defender will win with the carrier remaining, a 19% chance that the attacker will win with 2 bombers remaining, a 18% chance that the defender will win with a fighter and carrier remaining, and a 14% chance that both sides will be destroyed.
1This battle would involve 6 fighters and 2 bombers (or 7 fighters and 1 bomber) against 1 AC, 2 fighters, and I assumed 7 transports (3 purchased for each of UK and US - it could certainly be more than this). With the 2 bombers, there is a 24% chance the attacker will win with 1 bomber remaining, a 23% chance the defender will win with the carrier remaining, a 19% chance that the attacker will win with 2 bombers remaining, a 18% chance that the defender will win with a fighter and carrier remaining, and a 14% chance that both sides will be destroyed.
Avin, you missed the point. What are the odds of Germany LOSING this battle with US or UK having ANY trannies left?
The idea of the second strike is to keep US and UK from landing forfces to assist Russia before the consolidated Germany/Japan pincer can knock Russia out. Simply knowing the odds of total victory do not matter. In point of fact, as soon as the trannies were gone, unless I was rolling REALLY well, I’d call off the attack. That Carrier can;t do jack sh*t to send land forces to Russia (and if the figs are moved off of it, I am going to take my last 1-3 AF and blow up a big chunk of the NEXT round of trannies)
So, when you get a chance, re-run to see what the odds are of a total destruction of the trannies, and what Germany has left upon achieving that goal. I think you will find it a rather high percentage (and a surprising number of remaining German AF). Why use up those German figs fighting a 3 and 2 4’s for another 1-2 rounds, losing 2-3 figs in the process, when all I have to do is get the trannies?
7 figs and 1 bomber kill 4 the first wave, I lose 3-4 on the counter.
2nd wave I kill the last 2 trannies, maybe a fig, and lose 2-3 on the counter.
I pull back, saving 2-4 figs and a bomber and leave US and UK without trannies.
In this situation (7 ftr 1 bmr vs 7 trn 1 AC 2 ftr), the outcome as per my no-luck simulation would have been a retreat with 2 fighters and one bomber, leaving 2 fighters and 1 carrier still alive (43% chance). Next up (18%) is retreating with only one fighter and bomber, leaving the same amount behind. After that (18% again) is a retreat with 2 fighters and 1 bomber, but leaving 2 fighters, carrier, and a single transport remaining.
Keep in mind that the 7 trn is a minimum; it is probably more likely to be 8 and potentially 9: if the UK has 56 IPCs on turn 2 (this of course assumes GER was able to successfully take EGY and hold it through the end of UK1, which is only guaranteed with at least 4 additional infantry added to the Egyptian attack) they can buy 1 carrier, 4 transports, and 2 inf, which is probably optimal for their next turn transportation needs and survival rate, and US can easily purchase 3 transports on US1, possibly 4 if they are concerned about the pending attack. If the number of transports is increased to 8, our most likely result after 2 rounds of combat is a retreat of only one fighter, one bomber, and still leaving one transport alive (28%), and quite a few outcomes that leave 2 transports alive.
See, the problem with this outcome is the fact that at the end of this battle, not only is Germany now incapable of trying this attack again next turn, with only 2 or 3 air units left, but they also vastly lack for defenses. If you don’t believe me, try playing out the game I started, altering the purchase of UK1, cancelling the transport and fighter non-combat movement at US1 (and also countering Pearl with the new freedom you have to do so), cancelling the attack on NOR on GER2 (since there would be no ships there at that time), and purchasing 4 trn with the UK on UK2. You can use essentially the same board position I ended with on J2 with those alterations.
But Avin… I may not be able to attack that fleet again. But this battle took place in G3. UK skipped buying in UK 1, dropped that fleet in UK2, and the US sent in THEIR build from US 1 in US2. Then in G3, Germany blasts the trannies to snot.
That means in UK3, you are going to have to replace those trannies (you can afford 3). And US will have had to buy trannies in US2 and again in US 3 to keep up a steady flow if going for the trans-atlantic ship (otherwise the forces are picked up in Eastern and US builds the transportable troops in US2, and replacement trannies in US3 for Europe landing that round.
Regardless, I took the UK out of the European gound battle for 3 full rounds with 2 repeated strikes on their Navy, and I STILL have a bit of AF left for either a suicide mission to weaken the trannies, to use for defense, to pick off stragler trannies, or for my Russia assault.
That means Germany can start building defense against UK and US in G4, losing North Africa in turns 4 & 5, Norway in 3 or 4 (to the US).
As Germany I still build at upper 30’s to low 40’s IPC’s for 4 rounds. UK and US are not on the contient until Turn 4 (except for Norway), and Russia was building at a decreasing amount, starting at 24, and probably only building in the mid teens at most for R4. Allies take their first swipe at Karelia in T4, and if they take it can start to send troops to Russia in T5 AFTER Germany’s turn. If Karelia holds, it will be Turn 6 or 7 before allied land forces reach Russia.
I am going to get 2 good swipes in as Germany before Allied landings become a critical issue, but I can still counter that with 10-13 INF per round builds. It will take the allies another several turns to get enough trannies and transportable ground forces to start denting that kind of Germany defense stack; especially if they focus on getting forces to Russia to help defend it against German assault from the West and Japan assault from the East; an assault that now has at least 5 rounds to get to Russia, probably 6, maybe 7.
Axis win all the time if the German player doesn’t lose all his armour to Russian infantry like a doof. Also, extra skillful Japanese play is required. Not so good with the Japanese myself, but my bro Troy is wicked good with them. Hint: Don’t waste money on a Factory. Build transports. By recalling both transports and building one on teh first turn, you can transfer six infantry twice the amount you can produce with afactory. They also can serve as losses in teh pacific war and their is no threat from teh air to sink them. 15 IPC’s is a transport and two infantry. Those are the two key infantry that can turn the tide early in the Asia wars. The transports give you more flexibility than a factory allowing you to transport to all three Japanese territories as well as harass Russian territories. All around better.
Axis win all the time if the German player doesn’t lose all his armour to Russian infantry like a doof. Also, extra skillful Japanese play is required. Not so good with the Japanese myself, but my bro Troy is wicked good with them. Hint: Don’t waste money on a Factory. Build transports. By recalling both transports and building one on teh first turn, you can transfer six infantry twice the amount you can produce with afactory. They also can serve as losses in teh pacific war and their is no threat from teh air to sink them. 15 IPC’s is a transport and two infantry. Those are the two key infantry that can turn the tide early in the Asia wars. The transports give you more flexibility than a factory allowing you to transport to all three Japanese territories as well as harass Russian territories. All around better.
Axis don’t win all the time, because the stats are in favor of the allies. How you went or turn the odds are always against the Axis. The Allies simply have more IPC’s and more time then the Axis.
Kinda hammering the point. Almost everyone knows that buying trannies on J1 is optimal play. Buying a IC is just like forfeit the game. Opening purchase for J1 should be either 2 trannies and 3 inf or 3 trannies and save 1 ipc.
Ugh…two trannies is bad let alone three on the first turn. On the first turn with Japan I buy 1 Transport and 5 Infantry. What are three tarniies going to do but sit around. You already have two. That’s sixteen wasted I.P. No wonder the Axis never win. What you going to move with those trannies air? Umm like the I.P.‘s swing. And U.S. has an I.P. delay. Russia’s I.P.’ are deceiving as they lose more than GErmany in battles because they lose armour to German infantry. Umm, like the game is slightly in favor of the Allies not overwhelmingly.
Oh and Britains I.P. are worth less than everyone else because they are in a suck position and cannot use them to full effect.
Ugh…two trannies is bad let alone three on the first turn. On the first turn with Japan I buy 1 Transport and 5 Infantry. What are three tarniies going to do but sit around. You already have two. That’s sixteen wasted I.P. No wonder the Axis never win. What you going to move with those trannies air? Umm like the I.P.‘s swing. And U.S. has an I.P. delay. Russia’s I.P.’ are deceiving as they lose more than GErmany in battles because they lose armour to German infantry. Umm, like the game is slightly in favor of the Allies not overwhelmingly.
Ugh as much as you want, but 2 trannies are mandatory on J1. There a loads of infantry on the Japanese islands which I would like to pick up instead of letting them go to waste there… You are gonna need at least 4-5 trannies to fully deploy the Japanese…
My question to you is: what am I going to do with 5 inf on J2 while I can’t even ship them all to the mainland? If you buy 5 inf on J1 you will have 6 inf and a tank on the Japanese Main island and 2 inf on the nearby islands which can be shipped to Man directly. So you will have 8 inf and a tank wich are waiting for transportation to the mainland and only 3 transporters so you will have 2 inf and a tank doing nothing or 4 inf doing nothing. So why would you buy them on J1? Just a waste of time and rescources…
Furthermore you underestimate the UK power. They have are an important part in the game. The Uk’s role in the game is mainly to delay the Axis. Building an India IC or retain Africa asap. So the UK need the IPC’s as much as any power! And since when does Rusland lose arms while attacking??? The only attack made in the first few rounds by the Russians that includes arms is the attack on Norway, because Norway can’t be retaken… This depends on the Sweden Lurch tho. If the Germans moved 2 inf and 1 tank to sweden you can’t even take Norway with your arms… So I don’t see how Rusland loses their arms to german inf…
“Ugh as much as you want, but 2 trannies are mandatory on J1. There a loads of infantry on the Japanese islands which I would like to pick up instead of letting them go to waste there… You are gonna need at least 4-5 trannies to fully deploy the Japanese…”
You want to move a transport two turns out of the way to pick up a few infantry? Yes you will need 4-5 transports with the Japanese. Buy 1 a turn on the first three turns. Five.
"My question to you is: what am I going to do with 5 inf on J2 while I can’t even ship them all to the mainland? If you buy 5 inf on J1 you will have 6 inf and a tank on the Japanese Main island and 2 inf on the nearby islands which can be shipped to Man directly. So you will have 8 inf and a tank wich are waiting for transportation to the mainland and only 3 transporters so you will have 2 inf and a tank doing nothing or 4 inf doing nothing. So why would you buy them on J1? Just a waste of time and rescources… "
Move both your transports back to Japan taking 2 infantry from Philipines and 2 from Japan to the mainland. You just bought one transport. 1 Japanese infantry plus 5 Japanese infantry equals six the amount you can transport with three transports. Thats not a waste of time and resources. Thats the maximum amount of transport possible in two turns.
“Furthermore you underestimate the UK power. They have are an important part in the game. The Uk’s role in the game is mainly to delay the Axis. Building an India IC or retain Africa asap. So the UK need the IPC’s as much as any power! And since when does Rusland lose arms while attacking??? The only attack made in the first few rounds by the Russians that includes arms is the attack on Norway, because Norway can’t be retaken… This depends on the Sweden Lurch tho. If the Germans moved 2 inf and 1 tank to sweden you can’t even take Norway with your arms… So I don’t see how Rusland loses their arms to german inf…”
Russia uses tanks to assault primarily. GErmany uses a mixture of tanks and can keep its armour safe better. Russia loses armour on counterassault. GErmany doesn’t.
yes I do want to pick up inf from the islands… takes 2 turns to get most of them to the Asia mainland…
As I stated you have 2 inf sitting on nearby islands which can get shipped over to Manch in 1 turn (using 2 trannies, pick one up there and one from Jap and you can drop them both in Manchuria) So that means you will have 8 inf and a tank waiting to get shipped. While if you buy 2 tran and 3 inf (usually I buy this and an extra trannie on T2) on J2 you will have 4 inf and a tank at Jap and 2 on nearby islands. => 4 transports to fill => Optimal use…
You use your Russian fighters for offense (you start with 2) not your precious arms… Only if you are certain to hold the conquered territory you can use your arms…
Germany uses his fighters,bomber and inf to exchange territories. No tanks either… Wasting tanks on exchanging territories is just plain stupid.
“1) yes I do want to pick up inf from the islands… takes 2 turns to get most of them to the Asia mainland…”
Okay so you are going to spend 16 more I.P. than me and spend two extra turns than me to pick up a few infantry. Why not say…buy infantry and bridge them immediately.
"2) As I stated you have 2 inf sitting on nearby islands which can get shipped over to Manch in 1 turn (using 2 trannies, pick one up there and one from Jap and you can drop them both in Manchuria) So that means you will have 8 inf and a tank waiting to get shipped. While if you buy 2 tran and 3 inf (usually I buy this and an extra trannie on T2) on J2 you will have 4 inf and a tank at Jap and 2 on nearby islands. => 4 transports to fill => Optimal use… "
Lets run through this again. I buy 1 TP and 5 infantry on turn one. I move 2 Infantry from Philapeans and 2 from Japan on turn one. I then move 6 infantry on turn two. On turn three I move 6 Infantry and an arms. No two turn delay and more units faster. i.e. optimal
“3) You use your Russian fighters for offense (you start with 2) not your precious arms… Only if you are certain to hold the conquered territory you can use your arms…”
Two Russian fighters at 3 and a stack of INF at 1 versus a stack of German INF defending at 2. This favors Germany.
“4) Germany uses his fighters,bomber and inf to exchange territories. No tanks either… Wasting tanks on exchanging territories is just plain stupid.”
You won’t be able to take my territories with just two figs. Not sure who you’ve been playing. Even if you did, I can send up to 4 figs in response.
Lets run through this again. I buy 1 TP and 5 infantry on turn one. I move 2 Infantry from Philapeans and 2 from Japan on turn one. I then move 6 infantry on turn two. On turn three I move 6 Infantry and an arms. No two turn delay and more units faster. i.e. optimal
J1) 4 inf to Manch (from Phil and 1 from jap and 1 from wake) leaving 2 inf and a tank left.
J2) 6 inf and a tank to Manch (5 from Japan and one from the other island) => 4 trannies full!
If I just buy inf on J2 to fill up my trannies I will ship 8 inf to manch on J3.
Outcome. 4 inf + 6 inf + 1 tank + 8 inf= 18 inf and 1 tank
Your total sum will be: 4 inf + 6 inf + 6 inf + 1 tank= 16 inf and 1 tank
Easy math I have 2 inf more than you do by turn 3…
You stated exchange lands with germany… Exchange means taking with as less units as possible… So you just need 3-6 inf and some fighters to EXCHANGE the territory. If you take Ukr or Cau with significant force with germany you will leave EEU open for an attack… So yes you exchange cau and Ukr with as less units as possible so you don’t need your arms…
Lets run through this again. I buy 1 TP and 5 infantry on turn one. I move 2 Infantry from Philapeans and 2 from Japan on turn one. I then move 6 infantry on turn two. On turn three I move 6 Infantry and an arms. No two turn delay and more units faster. i.e. optimal
J1) 4 inf to Manch (from Phil and 1 from jap and 1 from wake) leaving 2 inf and a tank left.
J2) 6 inf and a tank to Manch (5 from Japan and one from the other island) => 4 trannies full!
If I just buy inf on J2 to fill up my trannies I will ship 8 inf to manch on J3.Outcome. 4 inf + 6 inf + 1 tank + 8 inf= 18 inf and 1 tank
Your total sum will be: 4 inf + 6 inf + 6 inf + 1 tank= 16 inf and 1 tank
Easy math I have 2 inf more than you do by turn 3…
You stated exchange lands with germany… Exchange means taking with as less units as possible… So you just need 3-6 inf and some fighters to EXCHANGE the territory. If you take Ukr or Cau with significant force with germany you will leave EEU open for an attack… So yes you exchange cau and Ukr with as less units as possible so you don’t need your arms…
You also have depopulated islands, need to spend 30 I.P. per turn to fill the five TP after turn three preventing you from buying planes or anything other than INF really. Optimal means max infantry in tempo while maintaing balance towards turns 4-6. Congradulations you shipped the tank one turn earlier and had tow more inf on turn three. The price you pay is measured in what you purchase afterwords. You have completely pigeonholed your strategy.
Whatever dude… The income base of Japan will be around 40-45 in turn 3-4-5 so Yes you need 30 ipc to fill the transports, but you can also start building IC’s where you can build tanks… So Good luck buying planes with Japan, while they have enough planes…
You also have depopulated islands, need to spend 30 I.P. per turn to fill the five TP after turn three preventing you from buying planes or anything other than INF really. Optimal means max infantry in tempo while maintaing balance towards turns 4-6. Congradulations you shipped the tank one turn earlier and had tow more inf on turn three. The price you pay is measured in what you purchase afterwords. You have completely pigeonholed your strategy.
Depopulated islands are your friend. I’d rather have 1 inf on the mainland than 1 inf on any of my islands. If the US really wants to island hop then godspeed to them.
Limitted… pardon me for saying this but your KNOWLEDGE is limitted.
Japan pouring 5 trannies worth of forces into Asia to pound on Russia’s back door is NOT wasted money.
Hell that is MORE forces than Russia has to use for defense, and does not then consider Germany pounding Russia from the other side.
What are YOU advocating? Invading California instead???
