13L G40 wheatbeer (Axis) vs hobo (Allies +12) take 2

[hobo]

hey, you won with the tank!  that’s all that might matter!  :lol:

[wheatbeer]

So, UK aa first, Americans, remaining UK?

[wheatbeer]

For expediency, I am going to go with that. If I’m wrong you can always swap the aa gun back.

[wheatbeer]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Politics - Germans

Purchase Units - Germans
            Germans buy 7 armour, 3 artilleries, 1 factory_upgrade, 2 fighters and 3 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Combat Move - Germans
            2 infantry moved from Southern Italy to Northern Italy
            1 armour, 5 artilleries, 10 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys moved from France to Northern Italy
            3 mech_infantrys moved from Denmark to Northern Italy
            2 fighters moved from Ukraine to Volgograd
            3 tactical_bombers moved from Ukraine to Volgograd
            2 bombers moved from Ukraine to Volgograd
            1 armour moved from Tambov to Samara
                  Germans take Samara from Russians
            1 armour moved from Samara to Volgograd
            17 armour, 22 artilleries, 5 fighters, 21 infantry, 20 mech_infantrys and 8 tactical_bombers moved from Tambov to Volgograd
            1 infantry moved from Russia to Vologda
                  Germans take Vologda from Russians

Combat - Germans
            Battle in Volgograd
                Germans attack with 18 armour, 22 artilleries, 2 bombers, 7 fighters, 21 infantry, 20 mech_infantrys and 11 tactical_bombers
                ANZAC defend with 2 fighters; Russians defend with 3 aaGuns, 1 armour, 9 artilleries, 1 factory_minor, 68 infantry and 5 mech_infantrys; Americans defend with 6 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers
                    AA fire in Volgograd :  2/9 hits
                    2 fighters owned by the Germans lost in Volgograd
                    Germans roll dice for 18 armour, 22 artilleries, 2 bombers, 5 fighters, 21 infantry, 20 mech_infantrys and 11 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 2 :  31/99 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 3 aaGuns, 1 armour, 9 artilleries, 8 fighters, 68 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 4 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 2 :  33/95 hits
                    28 infantry owned by the Russians , 21 infantry owned by the Germans , 12 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans and 3 aaGuns owned by the Russians lost in Volgograd
                    Germans roll dice for 18 armour, 22 artilleries, 2 bombers, 5 fighters, 8 mech_infantrys and 11 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 3 :  26/66 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 9 artilleries, 8 fighters, 40 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 4 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 3 :  24/67 hits
                    26 infantry owned by the Russians , 16 artilleries owned by the Germans and 8 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Volgograd
                    Germans roll dice for 18 armour, 6 artilleries, 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 11 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 4 :  18/42 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 9 artilleries, 8 fighters, 14 infantry, 5 mech_infantrys and 4 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 4 :  16/41 hits
                    14 infantry owned by the Russians , 10 armour owned by the Germans , 4 mech_infantrys owned by the Russians and 6 artilleries owned by the Germans lost in Volgograd
                    Germans roll dice for 8 armour, 2 bombers, 5 fighters and 11 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 5 :  13/26 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 armour, 9 artilleries, 8 fighters, 1 mech_infantry and 4 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 5 :  15/23 hits
                    1 armour owned by the Russians , 3 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans , 7 armour owned by the Germans , 9 artilleries owned by the Russians , 1 mech_infantry owned by the Russians , 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Americans and 5 fighters owned by the Germans lost in Volgograd
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 2 bombers and 8 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 6 :  5/11 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 8 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 6 :  6/10 hits
                    3 fighters owned by the Americans , 6 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Americans lost in Volgograd
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 2 bombers and 2 tactical_bombers in Volgograd, round 7 :  4/5 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 5 fighters in Volgograd, round 7 :  4/5 hits
                    3 fighters owned by the Americans , 2 bombers owned by the Germans , 2 tactical_bombers owned by the Germans and 1 fighter owned by the ANZAC lost in Volgograd
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Volgograd, round 8 :  0/1 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter in Volgograd, round 8 :  0/1 hits
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Volgograd, round 9 :  1/1 hits
                    Russians roll dice for 1 fighter in Volgograd, round 9 :  0/1 hits
                    1 fighter owned by the ANZAC lost in Volgograd
                Germans win, taking Volgograd from Russians with 1 armour remaining. Battle score for attacker is -143
                Casualties for ANZAC: 2 fighters
                Casualties for Germans: 17 armour, 22 artilleries, 2 bombers, 7 fighters, 21 infantry, 20 mech_infantrys and 11 tactical_bombers
                Casualties for Russians: 3 aaGuns, 1 armour, 9 artilleries, 68 infantry and 5 mech_infantrys
                Casualties for Americans: 6 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers
            Battle in Northern Italy
                Germans attack with 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 12 infantry and 5 mech_infantrys
                British defend with 1 aaGun, 1 artillery and 6 infantry; Americans defend with 1 factory_minor, 4 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 12 infantry and 5 mech_infantrys in Northern Italy, round 2 :  2/23 hits
                    Americans roll dice for 1 aaGun, 1 artillery, 10 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Northern Italy, round 2 :  1/12 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the Germans , 1 infantry owned by the Americans and 1 aaGun owned by the British lost in Northern Italy
                    Germans roll dice for 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 11 infantry and 5 mech_infantrys in Northern Italy, round 3 :  5/22 hits
                    Americans roll dice for 1 artillery, 9 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Northern Italy, round 3 :  4/11 hits
                    1 infantry owned by the British , 1 mech_infantry owned by the Americans , 4 infantry owned by the Germans and 3 infantry owned by the Americans lost in Northern Italy
                7 infantry owned by the Germans , 1 armour owned by the Germans , 5 mech_infantrys owned by the Germans and 5 artilleries owned by the Germans retreated to Southern Italy
                Americans win with 1 artillery and 5 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 9
                Casualties for Germans: 5 infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 aaGun and 1 infantry
                Casualties for Americans: 4 infantry and 1 mech_infantry

Non Combat Move - Germans
            2 fighters moved from Ukraine to Southern Italy
            1 aaGun moved from France to Western Germany
            1 aaGun, 2 artilleries and 8 infantry moved from Denmark to Western Germany
            1 artillery and 7 infantry moved from Germany to Western Germany
            1 aaGun moved from Ukraine to Rostov
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Karelia to Finland
            1 aaGun moved from Karelia to Finland
            1 infantry moved from Karelia to Finland
            1 infantry moved from Karelia to Finland
            1 aaGun and 2 infantry moved from Karelia to Novgorod

Place Units - Germans
            Units in Western Germany being upgraded or consumed: 1 factory_minor
            1 factory_upgrade placed in Western Germany
            7 armour and 3 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
            2 fighters placed in Ukraine
            Germans undo move 1.
            3 artilleries placed in Western Germany
            Units in Western Germany being upgraded or consumed: 1 factory_minor
            1 factory_upgrade placed in Western Germany

Turn Complete - Germans
            Germans collect 55 PUs; end with 56 PUs total
            Trigger Germans 4 Presence In Egypt: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 61 PUs
            Objective Germans 3 Control Caucasus: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 66 PUs
            Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 15 PUs; end with 81 PUs

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 55 / 81
    Russians : 12 / 0
    Japanese : 12 / 10
    Americans : 79 / 109
    Chinese : 23 / 29
    British : 31 / 35
    UK_Pacific : 18 / 26
    Italians : 15 / 19
    ANZAC : 15 / 28
    French : 5 / 0
    Dutch : 0 / 0
    Mongolians : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Axis : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Allies : 0 / 0
    Neutral_True : 18 / 0

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Combat Move - Russians

Non Combat Move - Russians
            1 aaGun and 10 infantry moved from Amur to Buryatia
            1 aaGun and 8 infantry moved from Korea to Amur
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Eastern Persia to 81 Sea Zone
            1 fighter moved from Eastern Persia to 81 Sea Zone

Turn Complete - Russians

[wheatbeer]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Purchase Units - Japanese
            Japanese buy 3 infantry; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 0 SuicideAttackTokens;

Combat Move - Japanese
            1 tactical_bomber moved from Japan to 20 Sea Zone
            3 bombers, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Egypt to Belgian Congo

Combat - Japanese
            Battle in 20 Sea Zone
                Japanese attack with 1 tactical_bomber
                ANZAC defend with 1 submarine and 1 transport
                1 submarine owned by the ANZAC Submerged
                    Japanese roll dice for 1 tactical_bomber in 20 Sea Zone, round 2 :  1/1 hits
                    1 transport owned by the ANZAC lost in 20 Sea Zone
                Japanese win with 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
                Casualties for ANZAC: 1 transport
            Battle in Belgian Congo
                Japanese attack with 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
                British defend with 3 mech_infantrys
                    Japanese roll dice for 3 bombers, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in Belgian Congo, round 2 :  5/5 hits
                    British roll dice for 3 mech_infantrys in Belgian Congo, round 2 :  1/3 hits
                    1 bomber owned by the Japanese and 3 mech_infantrys owned by the British lost in Belgian Congo
                Japanese win with 2 bombers, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
                Casualties for Japanese: 1 bomber
                Casualties for British: 3 mech_infantrys

Non Combat Move - Japanese
            2 bombers, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Belgian Congo to Egypt
            3 fighters moved from Southern Italy to Egypt
            2 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from France to Egypt
            2 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Denmark to Southern Italy
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 20 Sea Zone to Okinawa

Place Units - Japanese
            3 infantry placed in Japan

Turn Complete - Japanese
            Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 8
                Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 6 Sea Zone. Rolls: 3,1,2,4,3,5,1,4
            Japanese collect 4 PUs (8 lost to blockades); end with 5 PUs total

Production/PUs Summary :

Germans : 55 / 81
    Russians : 12 / 0
    Japanese : 12 / 5
    Americans : 79 / 109
    Chinese : 23 / 29
    British : 31 / 35
    UK_Pacific : 18 / 26
    Italians : 15 / 19
    ANZAC : 15 / 28
    French : 5 / 0
    Dutch : 0 / 0
    Mongolians : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Axis : 0 / 0
    Neutral_Allies : 0 / 0
    Neutral_True : 18 / 0

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Purchase Units - Americans
            Americans buy 3 armour, 1 artillery, 3 bombers, 1 destroyer, 1 fighter, 1 infantry, 3 mech_infantrys, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs;

Combat Move - Americans
            1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from West India to 79 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 79 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from 81 Sea Zone to Egypt
            1 infantry moved from 81 Sea Zone to Egypt
            1 bomber moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Egypt

Combat - Americans
            Battle in Egypt
                Americans attack with 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 1 infantry
                Japanese defend with 2 bombers, 6 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers; Germans defend with 1 artillery; Italians defend with 1 aaGun, 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor, 5 fighters, 1 harbour, 13 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys
                Italians win with 1 armour, 2 artilleries, 11 fighters, 13 infantry, 2 mech_infantrys and 3 tactical_bombers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 10
                Casualties for Japanese: 2 bombers
                Casualties for Italians: 1 aaGun
                Casualties for Americans: 1 artillery, 1 bomber and 1 infantry

Non Combat Move - Americans
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Libya: 1 infantry
            EDIT: Changing ownership of Tobruk from Italians to Americans
            EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Tobruk: 1 infantry
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 carrier and 1 submarine moved from 91 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            2 transports moved from 92 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone
            2 artilleries moved from Southern France to 93 Sea Zone
            2 artilleries and 2 transports moved from 93 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
            2 artilleries moved from 92 Sea Zone to Algeria
            1 tactical_bomber moved from 92 Sea Zone to Algeria
            2 fighters moved from 92 Sea Zone to Algeria
            1 infantry moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone
            1 mech_infantry moved from Eastern United States to 101 Sea Zone
            1 destroyer, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry and 1 transport moved from 101 Sea Zone to 91 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco
            1 mech_infantry moved from 91 Sea Zone to Morocco
            3 fighters moved from Eastern United States to 92 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Norway to 112 Sea Zone
            1 carrier, 1 destroyer, 1 infantry and 2 transports moved from 112 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 110 Sea Zone to Normandy Bordeaux
            2 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Amur to Yakut S.S.R.
            3 mech_infantrys moved from Korea to Buryatia
            1 artillery moved from Borneo to 43 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 transport moved from 43 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from 37 Sea Zone to Shan State
            2 infantry and 1 transport moved from 45 Sea Zone to 37 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun moved from Western United States to Central United States
            1 carrier and 1 fighter moved from 79 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
            1 carrier and 1 fighter moved from 38 Sea Zone to 79 Sea Zone
            5 destroyers moved from 81 Sea Zone to 80 Sea Zone
            1 carrier moved from 79 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone

Place Units - Americans
            1 destroyer, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber placed in 95 Sea Zone
            1 transport placed in 101 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Eastern United States
            3 bombers placed in Southern France
            1 armour and 2 mech_infantrys placed in Korea
            2 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in French Indo China
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            Turning on Edit Mode
            EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from Algeria: 1 airfield
            EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
            1 airfield placed in Algeria

Turn Complete - Americans
            Americans collect 79 PUs; end with 79 PUs total
            Objective Americans 2 Outer Territories: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 84 PUs
            Objective Americans 4 Philippines: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 89 PUs
            Objective Americans 3 Defense Obligations: Americans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 94 PUs
            Objective Americans 1 Homeland: Americans met a national objective for an additional 10 PUs; end with 104 PUs

[hobo]

I got 3 hits on egypt with a suicide run, and I just chose default, 1aa + 2bombers.  Let me know if you want to change that before I move uk.

[wheatbeer]

No change.

Axis will take max defense in Egypt.

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Purchase Units - Chinese
            Trigger Chinese Artillery Supplies: Chinese has their production frontier changed to: productionChinese_Burma_Road_Open
            Chinese buy 9 infantry; Remaining resources: 2 PUs;

Combat Move - Chinese

Combat - Chinese

Non Combat Move - Chinese
            7 infantry moved from Szechwan to Sikang
            2 artilleries and 7 infantry moved from Shensi to Tsinghai
            1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Szechwan
            1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hopei
            4 artilleries and 7 infantry moved from Manchuria to Jehol

Place Units - Chinese
            3 infantry placed in Tsinghai
            3 infantry placed in Sikang
            3 infantry placed in Kansu
            Chinese undo move 3.
            3 infantry placed in Tsinghai

Turn Complete - Chinese
            Chinese collect 23 PUs; end with 25 PUs total
            Objective Chinese 1 Burma Road: Chinese met a national objective for an additional 6 PUs; end with 31 PUs

[hobo]

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World War II Global 1940 2nd Edition, version: 3.7

Game History

Round: 10

Purchase Units - British
            British buy 1 artillery, 2 fighters, 1 infantry and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 1 PUs;

Purchase Units - UK_Pacific
            UK_Pacific buy 6 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 2 PUs;

Combat Move - British
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Greater Southern Germany
                  British take Greater Southern Germany from Germans
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Yugoslavia
                  British take Yugoslavia from Germans
            1 infantry moved from Northern Italy to France
                  French take France from Germans
                  French take French Indo China from Americans
                  French take Normandy Bordeaux from British
                  French take Algeria from Americans
                  French take Southern France from Americans
                  French take Tunisia from Americans
            2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from Algeria to 92 Sea Zone
            2 artilleries, 1 battleship, 1 cruiser, 6 infantry and 4 transports moved from 92 Sea Zone to 98 Sea Zone
            2 artilleries and 6 infantry moved from 98 Sea Zone to Egypt
            1 bomber, 5 fighters and 2 tactical_bombers moved from Algeria to Egypt
            1 bomber moved from India to Egypt
            3 artilleries, 10 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Eastern Persia to Persia
            1 armour, 2 artilleries and 9 infantry moved from Anglo Egyptian Sudan to Egypt
            1 infantry moved from Union of South Africa to 71 Sea Zone
            1 artillery moved from Union of South Africa to 71 Sea Zone
            1 artillery, 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from 71 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from 81 Sea Zone to Egypt
            1 artillery moved from 81 Sea Zone to Egypt
            1 bomber moved from Union of South Africa to Egypt

Combat - British
            Battle in Egypt
                British attack with 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 3 bombers, 5 fighters, 16 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
                Japanese defend with 6 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers; Germans defend with 1 artillery; Italians defend with 1 armour, 1 artillery, 1 factory_minor, 5 fighters, 1 harbour, 13 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys
                Italians win with no units remaining. Battle score for attacker is 22
                Casualties for Japanese: 6 fighters and 3 tactical_bombers
                Casualties for Germans: 1 artillery
                Casualties for British: 1 armour, 5 artilleries, 3 bombers, 5 fighters, 16 infantry and 2 tactical_bombers
                Casualties for Italians: 1 armour, 1 artillery, 5 fighters, 13 infantry and 2 mech_infantrys
            Battle in Persia
                British attack with 3 artilleries, 10 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
                Japanese defend with 2 artilleries and 1 infantry
                British win, taking Persia from Japanese with 3 artilleries, 9 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
                Casualties for Japanese: 2 artilleries and 1 infantry
                Casualties for British: 1 infantry
            Trigger French 1 Liberation By British: Setting switch to false for conditionAttachment_French_1_Can_Be_Liberated_Switch attached to French
            Trigger French 1 Liberation By British: French has 4 infantry placed in France

Non Combat Move - British
            2 aaGuns moved from Eastern Persia to Persia
            1 mech_infantry moved from India to Eastern Persia
            1 destroyer moved from 79 Sea Zone to 81 Sea Zone
            1 infantry moved from Yunnan to Szechwan
            1 carrier, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 92 Sea Zone to 95 Sea Zone
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Southern France
            1 artillery and 2 infantry moved from Normandy Bordeaux to Southern France
            1 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to Normandy Bordeaux
            3 infantry moved from United Kingdom to 110 Sea Zone
            1 aaGun moved from United Kingdom to 110 Sea Zone

Place Units - British
            1 artillery and 1 infantry placed in Union of South Africa
            1 transport placed in 71 Sea Zone
            2 fighters placed in United Kingdom

Turn Complete - British
            British collect 37 PUs; end with 38 PUs total

Place Units - UK_Pacific
            6 mech_infantrys placed in India

Turn Complete - UK_Pacific
            UK_Pacific collect 18 PUs; end with 20 PUs total
            Objective UK Pacific 2 Kwangtung And Malaya: UK_Pacific met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 25 PUs
            Some Units in India change ownership: 6 mech_infantrys

[hobo]

well you got some luck and won, but doesn’t look like you can hold it next turn

[wheatbeer]

If I wasn’t down a whopping 23 planes between Stalingrad and Egypt, I would still be fighting.

As it is, I surrender, again.

[wheatbeer]

Thanks for satisfying my curiosity by the way, that is greatly appreciated.

If you want to play a 2014 game with any kind of reciprocal limited low luck reroll system, let me know (or are you a pure luck only type of gamer?)

[hobo]

Other than maybe playoffs I’ll probably take a step back for a bit.  I don’t know if I mentioned it to you directly but I have mentioned it overall - triplea’s dice engine is flawed.  It spits out sequences instead of truly random dice so that’s why you get these weird battles so frequently.  Things “should” even out but as you’ve seen, we just saw 3 major battles swing so dramatically despite being 9:1+ odds.  But even if you won against russia with more planes, had the 90% eqypt battle went as planned there would have been no way you would never have taken back egypt and secured a vc win.  It was close though as it really came down to a few big battles.  Had I not made some minor screw ups which lessened my odds in some battles, it would have given me a little more breathing room.  I do need to rethink my allied defense since I seem to lose egypt a lot in my games  :lol:

[wheatbeer]

@hobo:

But even if you won against russia with more planes, had the 90% eqypt battle went as planned there would have been no way you would never have taken back egypt and secured a vc win.

The odds of the UK capturing Egypt were < 20% according to three different programs (dskelly, aacalc, and tripleA). I normally just use one, but I wanted to be certain since we seem to be arriving at different conclusions quite a bit.

You must have missed some units in your calculations or else there is some other kind of error in your method.