• Well, you should give it a guess once… but not in the opening, exept from USA where your money is a hell lot easier to get than Russia… poor Russia… squeezed up between Germany & Japan…

    But fun to play sometimes against newbies! They think that Japan target is USA… they will learn one day!


  • But until then, b_o_,

    KILL! KILL! KILL!
    MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!


  • A little math lesson (sorry Xi :wink: ).

    Starting with owning no techs, on average, it takes 21 rolls of dice to get the particular tech you want (eg heavy bomber). Here is how:

    First the easy part. On average it takes 6 rolls to get a six (let’s call this a tech chance). Now on each tech chance you roll to see what tech you’re getting, so the probability of getting heavy bomber on the first tech chance (let’s call it P(1)) is 1/6. But the probability of not getting it is 5/6 but you get another tech (super sub?). So on the second tech chance you will get heavy bomber 1/5 of the time, given that you miss on the first tech chance. So the probability of getting heavy bomber on the second tech chance (and missing on the first tech chance) is P(2)=(5/6)(1/5)=1/6. Similarly the probability of getting heavy bomber on the third, forth, fifth and sixth tech chance (and missing on the previous tech chances) are:
    P(3)=(5/6)(4/5)(1/4)=1/6
    P(4)=(5/6)(4/5)(3/4)(1/3)=1/6
    P(5)=(5/6)(4/5)(3/4)(2/3)(1/2)=1/6
    P(6)=(5/6)(4/5)(3/4)(2/3)(1/2)(1/1)=1/6
    So it turns out that you are as likely to get heavy bomber on your first tech chance as the sixth (and last) tech chance, similar to rolling a dice where you are equally likely to get any of the number 1 to 6. Therefore the average number of tech chances you need to get heavy bomber (or any one particular tech you want) is 3.5, much like the average number of IPC damage done on a SBR is 3.5. Now it takes an average of 6 rolls to get one tech chance so that 3.5 tech chance equals 21 rolls. Remember we are talking about averages here.

    Phew! Now raise your hand if you know the averge number of dice roll to get heavy bomber starting with axis ad, or if you know what the heck I’m talking about. :roll:

    PS
    This is first year university probability math. Don’t feel bad if you don’t get it. Just take my word for it. If there’re enough demand, I’ll post the solution to axis ad. :D


  • No way, hoser! :P


  • It’s true and it’s confirmed by my Excel tech roll simulator. 8)


  • What you guys don’t seem to get is the gambling aspect of Technology.

    I personally do not gamble, because I don’t want to lose money, but the gamblers’ credo is “don’t gamble what you don’t want to lose”!

    There are times in the game when someone w/ a gambler’s heart will want to roll for tech. No matter what the odds, there is a chance that any time you roll for tech–be it one die or 60-- that you will win it. It’s luck and guts, pure & simple.

    Now the odds you will get a particular tech are very low, but there are many situations where several different techs would help you in different ways.

    The fact is that while theoretically speaking, it takes 60–or whatever–dice to get a particular tech, there is always the possibility that the next roll is the one! That’s called gambling, and if you are a gambler tech may be for you!

    Anyone who has been defeated by someone who got Heavy Bombers or LRA or whatever in 3 rolls can tell you that it CAN PAY OFF!

    Ozone27

    P.S. Not only that, but what is the alternative? Spending 5 IPCs on an ARM may seem like a worthwhile investment, but what if IT scores no hits ever & is eliminated? That can happen w/ the dice–happens all the time in fact. That is a “waste” of money too!


  • what about all tek with usa until hb?
    uk and russia can hold on 3 turns, and once usa has hb, they can bomb germany to submission
    also, the cd doesn’t let you roll more than 6 at a time. Is this a real rule? could usa roll 7 the first and second turns?

    if usa get’s unlucky, it’s over, but with luck…

    what about instead of rr or bid or aa, give germany supersubs and rockets. This would be historically accurate. Then germany would fight for the right to tek, since the odds are really good.


  • @Inxduk:

    the cd doesn’t let you roll more than 6 at a time. Is this a real rule? could usa roll 7 the first and second turns?

    In the 2nd edition rules, you can “buy as many as you wish”. I don’t know if that’s true in 3rd edition…
    @Inxduk:

    if usa get’s unlucky, it’s over, but with luck…

    Exactly! Depending on the luck of the dice to win is lazy. :D
    @Inxduk:

    what about instead of rr or bid or aa, give germany supersubs and rockets. This would be historically accurate. Then germany would fight for the right to tek, since the odds are really good.

    I think the Axis is hurt too much w/o rr. Besides does Japan get anything?


  • You wouldn’t be able to do this on the pc, but you could give Japan two hit battleships. They did have the largest battleships ever built. Not that it would really make a damn bit of difference in the long run.


  • @Guest:

    You wouldn’t be able to do this on the pc, but you could give Japan two hit battleships. They did have the largest battleships ever built. Not that it would really make a damn bit of difference in the long run.

    Yes giving 2HBB only to Japan does give Japan a much needed advantage (to do Pearl) without making the UK navy hard to kill, but I’ve to still play with RR though. I can play w/o ax ad but RR is a must.


  • Yeah RR is a must unless you are playing newbies. I guess the 2 hits could help a little. If the US does not sacrifice their airforce destroying the Japanese fleet after Pearl, then Japan can go through the Panama canal and protect the German transports in the Med or stall US or GB for a turn or two in the Atlantic.


  • How about no new ICs? Should help the Axis a bit…

    Ozone27


  • Yes, no new ICs helps the Axis by removing the Kill Japan First option if that’s the Allies style.


  • I am the “Guest” from above. I think no new IC’s is realistic, because how could the US help China build a factory in Sinkiang, not very likely. It would help the axis in the beginning, no possibility of India or Sinkiang, but in the long run it would hurt them. The way I usually play Japan is attack with infantry transported from Japan and the planes. Once the allies have been weakened in East Asia I build a IC or even two to get to Moscow fast. Just have found that if you don’t get there fast it is too late for Germany. Not the best strategy, but then of all the countries I am the worst at Japan.


  • Why not just raise the price of ICs to 25 IPCs?

    As I said, I’m not a tech fan!


  • Xi, that’s a DA*N good idea! :D

    I never thought of that but that’d be great! If anyone wants to build an industrial complex in some God-forsaken wilderness–let 'em spend a few IPCs!

    I’d put it at 20-24 IPC’s to keep it in line, but considering the strategic value–you’re right on!

    Ozone27


  • Just what I’ve been saying for years–good players don’t NEED to build ICs…

    I myself never bother till the very end as Japan when the extra ARM can really help! Also I’ll sometimes do it as UK…

    But since I can’t convince my (very conservative) buddies to implement bids, 20-24 IPC-ICs could come in VERY handy! They’ll agree to that!

    Ozone27


  • @Soon_U_Die:

    Hehe…except when you play guys like me :)

    I normally don’t build ICs for either side…so I don’t care :)

    SUD

    …good ol’ SUD…at it again… :wink:

    Ozone27


  • i have seen people mention that all teks are bad for russia except IT
    i disagree, I Think that IT is bad for russia unless karelia and russia are secured really well
    what???
    if you tek all your money first turn with russia and get IT, i think you will still lose. Because of the structure of the game, if russia only get’s 1 infantry turn one, germany will move in and hold karelia for the remainer of the game. Even with IT, germany can still take out russia since it’s economy is superior (it can build more infantry than russia can even though russia has IT), and russia cannot recieve reinfocements other than fighters that have to fly over an aa gun!!
    i though i would just point out that no matter what tek you get (if any) with russia early on, you will still lose


  • Tech as Russia? Why not build a carrier while you’re at it? With the no move for russia on T1, if you don’t put every single piece and build in Karelia except for 1 infantry in the Caucus you’re asking Germany to hammer you. Even if you do it’s about a 50/50 battle for Karelia…

    Seriously though, if you are winning why bother with techs? If you can see the writing on the wall and you know it’s a matter of time then perhaps you might roll for techs in particular if you have air power. I was the USA and had a fleet of transports weakly defended but out of range of german air, the germans got long range and all of a sudden that fleet was in range and was sunk. The germans knew it was a matter of time once the convoy system got started to norway that he was doomed,

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