G1 Channel Dash/Split?

[DarthMaximus]

With 2 units bid to Lib you can still attack Egy on G1.

You can attack with one of the following:

3 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr, 1 bom
2 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, 1 ftr, 1 bom
2 inf, 2 arm, 1 ftr, 1 bom

All of these should still clear Egy with 1-2 ground forces left plus air.

[DarthMaximus]

@Jennifer:

If you move the fleet to SZ 7

England attacks with 2 transports, Battleship, 2 Fighters, Bomber.

Just straight LL would have it at:

14 Punch or 2 1/3rd chances of hits.

vs

8 Punch or 1 1/3rd chances of hits.

But realistically speaking, there’s a good chance all 4 of those attackers could hit in one round.  And any mopping up can be done with the American bomber.

Not very good odds of success.  You might make it to the Med with a submarine or two, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Well that is a 66% chance to have 2 subs survive the initial UK attack and then have to face the US attack.

1 bom vs. 2 subs and 1 guaranteed to see G2
1 ftr, 1 bom vs. 2 subs and you still have a pretty good (~50-50) shot at keeping 1 sub.

Roughly speaking you probably have about a 30% chance to get 1 sub from Sz 5 to the Med if you do a straight channel dash with all units.

So 1 in 3 games you get the extra sub.  That might be worth a shot in some games.

Now the alternative is to leave in Sz 5 and try and take down 2 planes.  I perfer that, cause I like to kill British air, but I don’t really have a problem with the grouped channel dash, esp if you have 1 trn, 1 sub, 1 bb off Gib.

Splitting your G ships may work but I think your going to end up with similar results and still get nitpicked by the Allies.  They can leave any ships in Sz 5 until UK 2 and still kill the weakend fleet in Sz 6 or 7.

(This all assumes no G1 naval purchase and bid to Lib)

[Jennifer]

The problem is, the German fleet is only useful in shooting down stupid British pilots that attack it undefended, IMHO.

Now, move the fleet into SZ 7 and you have a 40% chance of one of your ships surviving the initial attack, according to Frood. (2 Fighters, Bomber, Battleship, 2 Transports vs Transport, 2 Submarines, Destroyer.)  England, on the other hand, has a 60% chance of not losing a single unit.

That would leave you, probably, with 1 submarine left in SZ 7. (I assume the worst.)  America has a 67% chance to kill that submarine with her bomber leaving you with nothing and costing the allies nothing in return.

If you leave the fleet in SZ 5 and England, for some stupid reason, attacks it, you have a 50% chance to kill 2 British fighters before you lose your fleet (that you are going to lose ANYWAY mind you.)

So the choice is:

40% chance to get a submarine to the Med fleet or 50% chance to cripple England’s offensive capability for the first couple rounds of the game?

Anyway, that’s how I see it.

[DarthMaximus]

@Jennifer:

The problem is, the German fleet is only useful in shooting down stupid British pilots that attack it undefended, IMHO.

Now, move the fleet into SZ 7 and you have a 40% chance of one of your ships surviving the initial attack, according to Frood. (2 Fighters, Bomber, Battleship, 2 Transports vs Transport, 2 Submarines, Destroyer.)  England, on the other hand, has a 60% chance of not losing a single unit.

That would leave you, probably, with 1 submarine left in SZ 7. (I assume the worst.)  America has a 67% chance to kill that submarine with her bomber leaving you with nothing and costing the allies nothing in return.

Yeah, I was using the LL (with the 14 att pts).

It is actually about 54% that Germany will survive the initial attack with 2 or more units.  But we only care about the 2 subs, so 54% you’ll get to submerge 2 subs.

And it may not be just to get the sub to the Med.  Should the sub survive you can attack the Brit fleet in sz 7 with 2 subs and planes.  Just an option to look out for.

@Jennifer:

So the choice is:

40% chance to get a submarine to the Med fleet or 50% chance to cripple England’s offensive capability for the first couple rounds of the game?

Anyway, that’s how I see it.

That is why I said this:  :-)

@DarthMaximus:

Now the alternative is to leave in Sz 5 and try and take down 2 planes.  I perfer that, cause I like to kill British air, but I don’t really have a problem with the grouped channel dash, esp if you have 1 trn, 1 sub, 1 bb off Gib.

[Jennifer]

Or keep your fleet in SZ 5 and use your airforce AND fleet to attack the British navy. /shrug.

Of course, you’ll probably also have to contend with the Russian (laugh) Navy and the American navy.

[Crazy Ivan]

:-o
  If Germany bids a sub, and places it in the mid-atlantic with its’ other sub, (wolfpack!) and attacks the BB and Transport off of England with the 2 subs and the fighter from Norway and the Bmr from Germany, it can really take the teeth out of a British attack on the channel dash units.
Or, just leave the Atlantic sub where it is and block the Britts from attacking the dash units. This also slows the Britts from supporting the North African campaign, and distracts them from sending air defence to Russia early on. Something to upset the Allies time-table anyway.
  It works for me.
  Crazy Ivan  :roll:

[Guest]

Personally, I think the Med Fleet is best used in any of the 3 following ways:
1.  UK Air force destroyer.  Leave it in place, unreinforced, and incite the UK to trash a couple of aircraft taking it out.
2.  Fodder Force.  Use those ships as fodder for an air attack on an Allied Fleet that strays within range of the Luftwaffe and Baltic Fleet
3.  Blocking Force.  Add an AC and some initial FIGs to block UK form entering the Baltic for several turns.

If you want to reinforce the Med Fleet, the best ways to do it are:
1.  Bid unit to the Med (I like a 2nd TRN bid if I am doing this)
2.  Bring the SZ8 SUB into the Med to join the fleet (there are several ways to accomplish this, some more effective than others)
3.  Build units in the med (requires your existing fleet to be in SZ14, which is usually isn;t, so not easy to set up)
4.  Send Japan ships through the Suez to link with the Med Fleet (the trouble here is that, to move the fleet around, both the Japan and German force have to be strong enough to deter an RAF attack on either group of units).

About 5 turns is the maximum that Germany can hold onto BOTH bodies of water in a typical game.  Though i would caution that even trying to hold both that long is highly risky, and quite expensive.

About the best you can hope for is to hold both SZ5 and the Med for 3 turns, then hold the other for ANOTHER 5 turns after that.  By that time, the game should be pretty well defined (or over), and as you reach turns 6, 7, and 8 you can determine whether or not further fleet action is needed by the Axis in the sea zones you still control, or if the Axis is going to go with a purely ground war.

[Jennifer]

Germany bids submarine in Mid Atlantic

Russia attacks Norway with 3 Infantry, Armor, Fighter
Russia NCMs submarine to SZ 2

German threat to UK Fleet in SZ 2 is nullified.

England and America place fleets in SZ 12.  Germany losses fleet either taking them out or loses air taking them out or gives up on unification until G3.

[U-505]

Aside from the fact that the Norway attack is a risky 60/40, Germany can immediately stack heavily in Belo or Ukraine since either Ukraine or WR won’t be attacked on R1. With a bid sub in sz8, Germany can afford to wait to see what the Russians do before deciding if the Channel Dash is the best option and if it is, Germany has the option of stacking 1 DD, 4 SS, 1 TP in sz7 and build multiple fighters for a counterattack if UK decides to go after that fleet with more than just aircraft. In that case, stacking Allied fleet in sz12 is suicidal. I’ve won enough games using the Channel Dash to know that it’s viable and with a bid naval unit in sz5, s8 or sz14 it’s even stronger.

[Crazy Ivan]

:-D
  Ya what he, (U-505) said.
Besides, it’s fun to just see the look on your opponents face when you put that extra sub in the Atlantic, and say," Wolfpack Attack!"
Come on guys and Gals, it’s all about the fun!
And you can always forgo the attack on the UK fleet behind England and attack the transport off of eastern Canada with one sub, leave the other where it is, and if your sub survives the attack, submerge, and then on UK1 the britts can’t invade north Africa from the Atlantic. Which means no USA fighter there on USA1. Very couter-attackable for the German player should the USA feel it neccesary to go ahead and land there on USA1. Now with the channel dash fleet sitting in the English channel, and two subs cutting off the north Atlantic fleet and the Med fleet at Gabralter, I say bring on the USA1 fleet. With all my air within range, it will be a great day for the Kriegsmarine on the High seas! Not the usual, shooting fish in a barrel, (Baltic dead pool) scenario.
So, I say, If you gotta go, go out fighting.
    Respectfully,
            Crazy Ivan  :roll:

nothing ventured
    nothing gained

[Jennifer]

Yea, you CAN stack heavy in Ukraine or Karelia.  W. Russia, of course, is still toast.

However, Russia 2 kills whatever you stacked in Karelia or Ukraine (unless you gave up on attacking the British fleet with your airforce to defend it.)

As for Norway being “risky” it’s more 60/30 in your favor. (10% everyone looses.)  Anyway, is it not worth the risk to preserve a Submarine, Transport and Battleship?

[Crazy Ivan]

:-o
  Well, I just played it 4 times, ( on tripleA) and it was: one win for the Russians, ( one tank left); two wins for the Germans, ( one fighter and one inf.); and one mutual destruction. When the Germans won, they destroyed the Britts and their soviet soak off sub. Once the germans had both aircraft survive and the other time they only lost one of the subs!
These were not a low luck games,( You can almost figure LL outcomes without having to play them).
  So what happend to my Baltic dash you ask? Well, the Royal Air Force, promptly sank them without a loss, both times  :cry:!!!
  Sometimes I think that die server is all about payback  :wink:.
So then in game 4 I built a destroyer in the baltic on G1 and waited until G2 to make the dash. I also ran the Straits with my Med BB, it and 2 luftwaffe ftrs from Lybia destroyed the USA DD and 2 transports sitting off of Tunisia, with the loss of both ftrs  :x.
  Now I’m looking at joining up in G3!
Sweet   :-D

Being a retired Naval Airman, it was all I could do to not buy an AC for the Kriegsmarine. I mean if your going to go navy, you gotta go flat top. IMHO, They are just too expensive in this game.
  Crazy Ivan  :roll:

[Guest]

DEFENSIVELY, you can’t beat the flat top… IF you have the FIGs already in existence to land on it…

[U-505]

@Jennifer:

Yea, you CAN stack heavy in Ukraine or Karelia.  W. Russia, of course, is still toast.

However, Russia 2 kills whatever you stacked in Karelia or Ukraine (unless you gave up on attacking the British fleet with your airforce to defend it.)

As for Norway being “risky” it’s more 60/30 in your favor. (10% everyone looses.)  Anyway, is it not worth the risk to preserve a Submarine, Transport and Battleship?

First, Norway is 60/40 no matter what. The 10% mutual kill is in Germany’s favor. When Russia trades 3 inf, 1 arm, 1 fig for 3 inf, 1 fig and fails to take the territory it is most certainly a German victory even if they can’t do a G1 attack on sz2. Germany calls it a moral victory and then changes their plan on the fly.

Second, Russia will definitely be able to destroy whatever Germany stacks in Belo or ukraine. But at what cost? Every offensive unit they have including R1 builds. On G1 the Channel Dash becomes the wrong choice because of the missing Norway fighter, but with the extra units available to stack in the East it’s advantageous for Germany to force Russia into a bloodbath. The 2 sz8 subs go after the sz13 BB with minimal air support, The BB,TP help take Egypt and they stack everything in Ukr or Belo. They can build the CV to seal up the Baltic and nothing but inf and armor from then on. The baltic TP can keep the Russians bleeding off units to contest Karelia and Arch while the Med navy can add 2 newly built inf and a BB shot to Ukr every turn in addition to the units moving through Eastern. Will I miss sacrificing most of my German armor? Sure. But, if it allows Germany to force Russia to commit their entire builds to trading Ukraine, Karelia, and Belo, Japan is faced with nothing but scattered allied units in Asia. I can see Germany being able to keep up that offensive until at least G4 or G5 with infantry moving to defend Western being replaced by fighters coming back from Atlantic duty. And if Russia doesn’t take the bait, and holds their ground in Cauc or WR, Germany gets to hold territory they would normally be trading and Russia loses income with Germany being able to retreat strongly back to Eastern when the western Allied pressure gets too hot. Either way, Germany makes tons of income to replace their losses and will still be able to slowly fortify Western Europe. The only reason not to do it is if Russia manages to take Norway. Which is nothing more than a coin flip.

Another reason I would NEVER give anyone an 8 bid to let my opponent have a bid naval unit. I’ll go on record as saying I can win 9 out of 10 against anybody if they gave me a bid sub or TP whether I use my Channel Dash strat or not.

[Nix]

1 bid sub for germany means UK navy is bye bye on G1  (and subsequently on J1.)

Germany can then without “risk” force russia into a bloodbat and Japan mopps up the left overs…