Germany is definitely in bad shape at the beginning of the game. If Russia did the right thing first round (and had a reasonable amount of luck in rolls), then Germany has no Baltic fleet, lost its Atlantic submarine, faces an additional transport in the UK waters, and lost either Eastern Europe or the Ukraine. Needless to say, an assault on Karelia is not feasible, the Finland group is isolated and destined to be picked off by the UK, and Germany faces imminent amphibious assault on several territories.