@colonel-ace said in The Italian playbook:
With the proper help from Germany it is very possible that you still have two transports with a German fighter in Rome Toronto is a 50/50 shot and if they they take out the cruiser in 91 it’s a good chance you keep that transport but I see your point and what I usually do in that case is attack Morocco so I can destroy Algeria second turn.
So, based on your reply, I assume you are playing with no Bid. As, if there was a Bid, there is usually an additional DD or SS in SZ91. Also, there is usually at least a SS in SZ98.
With no Bid, if the Germans send 2 submarines to SZ91 there is an 89% chance the UK cruiser dies. Of course, this weakens the ability of the Germans to hurt the UK fleet in 106, 110 and 111, but it helps the Italians in the Med.
With no additional sub in SZ98 the Taranto raid has an 83.5% chance of success with an average of 3 UK planes surviving. Normally, even without the SS it would be 93.5% but I assume the UK player would pull off a DD and send it to SZ96 with the Gibraltar fighter. Of course, without the SZ91 cruiser the UK player may just shift to Gibastion anyway; and many players do Gibastion as their default option.
Not sure why you are saying Taranto is 50-50?