@OpTorch:
I think this is true for the opening and the beginning of the midgame. If the game takes ~15+ rounds, the game will start to favor the axis again. Id gues that at least 75% of the 20+round games will be won by the axis.
I am not sure it would take THAT many moves to shift the balance; assuming a well played Axis.
Many have posted about the need to kill Russia quickly for the Axis to win. The same holds true of the Aliies needing to kill Germany quickly (No matter your strategy, Japan can hold out a LLLLOOONNNNGGGG time against even a total effort against it by the Allies: distance simply makes the “Big Gulp” (as a friend calls the naval build up needed to invade Japan sans heavy bombers) take too long. UK has to either build an IC and then start a build up (best it can hope for is 3 units a round from this forward base), OR trasnport from UK proper (5 rounds to Japan). The US has the same problem needing to move at least 2 rounds from IC to combat location. And we won’t even consider Russia offering any help against Japan (other than continental). If they even THINK about major forces headed for Japan, Germany takes Russia. And if the UK and US divert large effort to Japan early on, that really weakens support for Russia, essentially leaving a 32 IPC power facing a 25 IPC power; and time only makes the problem worse.
In the games I have played, if the Allies have not either taken one Axis capital, or at least smashed one of them back to capital plus only 1 or 2 territories, by about round 8 or 9, then the Axis probably has the IPC’s to win a war of attrition.
The core concept of A&A rules here: The Axis has more pieces to start, the Allies more money. Pieces are quickly lost, money determines what comes back. To start the Axis has 57 IPC’s, the Allies 90. Shift a mere 18 IPC’s from Allies to Axis (China, Sinkiang, India, Australia, New Zealand, Soviet Far East, Yakut, Novosibirsk, Persia, Syria and Egypt, and you have already shifted more than 18) and time favors the Axis. The Axis has to strike and expand while they have the pieces in order to counter the Allies IPC. If they do so, they win. The Allies have to use those early rounds of massive economic superiority to maximum advantage. If they fail to stop expansion by BOTH axis powers, their lead slips away before round 10 (again excluding capture of an enemy capital).
That is why “Economic Victory” was added to the game, because once the Axis reaches 84 IPC’s, the allies are so badly out classed economically that it is just a matter of “playing it out”