• I think this great for judging dices odds on ONE battle.

    What is wrong with your strat exemple, or should I say MY strat, is that :

    • It does not reflect in any way a lowluck setting in which context the strat was written
    • It does not consider possibilities like straffing
    • It does not consider the casulaties taken by the ennemy
    • It does not consider the importance of each battle but rather try to multiply the sums of all moves as if each battles are equally important ( which is simply UNTRUE )
    • It is based on triple A simulator
    • It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles. Calling off an attack after a failure somewhere else is possible. You can retreat when there is no point…
    • Are you willin to take risks, if not, did you read the alternative plan?

    My goal in that strat is simple, Take and Hold Karelia.

    There is only 3 Battles in there that are MUST win and they must be resolved in THAT order.
    Using low luck, I will use triple A calculator like you did.

    • 1st : Sinking the BB/TR ( Pull out a sub, and send the bomber if you are too scared with 85%. It will be 100% )
    • 2nd: Taking Baltic States ( it’s 100% odds, not 96.3%… )
    • 3rd: Taking Leningrad 92% odds ( it’s not 79%, sim it again )

    So anywhere between 78.2% to 92% odds of success…

    Also let’s be clear, while you would try to round up your odds in thoses 3 battles to 92% by sending bomber on the BB, my bomber would go to Leningrad making it 100% instead and I’d risk the whole thing at 85% ( 100% x 100% x 85% ). Why? Because i’d resolve the sea battle first and already would have a clear idea either or not go the whole ten yards aka straffing or taking it.

    Still, let’s take a look at WHY it is 100% win sending the bomber. Your Bomber, fighter and one sub  fight against a BB.  If we go by theses ‘‘statistics’’, the battle is at 93-97% when in fact it’s 100% win Low luck. There is NO way around it.

    Let’s do the “maths”: 4+3 = 7. That’s 1 automatic hit, and 1/6 for a possible second hit. PLUS 2/6 for the sub in yet another possible hit. Let’s say everything miss and the damaged BB hit back. The sub goes, another automatic hit goes in, the BB hit back again before sinking, the fighter goes. Worst case scenario, still 100% win.

    Now, Why is Baltic States 100%? The fact is that in low luck you have a minimum and maximum number of hit you can do as well as the notion of automatic hits. 3 russian inf will invariably yield 1 hit vs the german 2 inf/3tanks. Even if you would not roll anything for germans and Russia would hit every round despite losses, it would go like this:

    2inf/3tanks vs 3 inf
    1inf/3tanks vs 2 inf
    3tanks vs 1 inf
    2 tanks win, worst case scenario.

    It’s not odds, it’s a SURE thing as far as winning. The odds are there to estimate how many losses you will sustain in the attack.

    The strat was written in the context of low luck, so I will not debate it outside of the context.

    Edited: typo and missed sentence.


  • Now, let’s not talk about low luck and especially NOT about my strat.

    Let’s talk about dices:

    Your overall multiplying odds method is still facing the following flaws:

    • It consider all battles as equally important when they are not.

    6 battles, one of these is really minor but at 50% , 2 are average ones you can lose at 75%, 3 are major ones in which one cannot be lost, all at 90%. If we take this method, we are at an overall 41%. Yet, the very word OVERALL does not makes any sense here.

    • It does not consider possibilities like straffing or special stuff

    Straffing is self explanatory, this is 0% odds to win, yet it’s a battle and an objective in itself to kill x ennemy units. Also, do your odds consider how a Battleship, a destroyer or sub abilities can mess a fight?. Does it consider both planes can be lost at sea on a sinking carrier? I don’t even scratch the surface here.

    • It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles.

    When you are gambling on holding a territory but must cut down ennemy transport or possible counters, you resolve cutting the ennemy line to your objective first. Once you won that battle, you know what to do in your main battle. Even if that Main battle is at 90% odds and the sea battle at 85%, it becomes a whole 0% because even that sure win is a loss. So you can’t say bluntly it’s 76.5% odds. Also you can minimise your losses in that main battle since there is no point on taking it after losing sea battle.

    • It’s based on triple A simulator.

    We talking about dices here. Your odds are fine but the human factor cannot be factored in theses sims. In low luck, it does not really matter, but with dices comes the mythic word: Luck. Statistics or not, there is hardly anyone reckless enough to send several planes over an AA gun even if odds tell him only 1 plane should be lost… Octopus refers to it as the ‘‘Wild’’ and he is right, you CAN get several 1s. I seen 5 of theses once. The only roof to maximum hits is the number of dices rolled and that’s another story even if that Triple A simulator tells me it’s 100% win, you can still lose… You can miss all your attack regardless of number of dices and the ennemy can hit on all his own… That Triple A simulator does not factor theses remote things, 100% odds does not exist with dices, yet that sim gives you that.

    All in all, my point is to take each battle separately. Multiplying odds of several battles with different importance, conducted in a different order and based upon a simulator that gives you 100% odds for dices roll without considering special factors is simply wrong.


  • first of all this guide to statistics was NOT written for low luck, only reason i used youre attacks in it (and reason i didnt refere to youre strat) was that i couldnt be arsed to come up with a G1, calculate all the odds for it under dices to succeed and then use those numbers.

    All the maths in this thread is correct, thats simply HOW maths works, no way getting around that fact. Its like claiming the world is round etc.

    • It consider all battles as equally important when they are not.

    • It does not consider possibilities like straffing or special stuff

    Maths are just a tool to show you how to calculate the odds of whatever problem you are pondering about the odds for. IF you want to know what the odds on a combat round is combined you now have the tools for that. You also have the tools neccesary to calculate youre “main” attack, and youre “strafe” or high variance attacks individually.

    Multiplying it all together just give you an indication of how how many times ALL attacks that YOU DECIDE to add into the equation will succeed. So for youre strategy you will only succeed with all the attacks in 45 of 100 German turn 1s. Other solid openings have a success rate off 90%. Again, this all demand that you play the game oob with regular dices.

    • It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles.

    It is irrelevant to calculate odds AFTER the battle have occured. As you cant change the combat moves after the first dice have been thrown. Maths here is for learning the people who dont know how to use it to calculate theyre odds BEFORE they attack. Then they can split it up as listed earlier in this thread so they can see what theyre odds are AFTER 1st battle succeed, so they have a backup plan IF that first battle fails.

    • It’s based on triple A simulator.

    Its the best estimate for how dices will roll, as it would be much to time consuming to manually calculate every battles, would take hours for every battle bigger then 1unit vs 1unit.

    • It does not consider the casulaties taken by the ennemy

    It assume you take the worst deffensive units first as casualties and the worst attacking units as casualties, so it actually gives you an worst case scenario unless youre up against a retard that sack his best deffensive units in a battle thats not huge in his favor.

    • It does not take in account the fact you CAN choose the order in which you do your battles. Calling off an attack after a failure somewhere else is possible. You can retreat when there is no point…

    You have to do 1 battleround as long as the combat move have been declared. Its beside the point though, as you then will have failed the overall strategy as lined out above and havent reached the goals.

    Its REACHING those goals you use Maths for. You use it to determin the odds reaching the goals YOU set youreself, if you feel a battle is of minor importance you skip the battle in the calculation as that would be a battle thats not crucial for the overall strategy to be successfull. For instance you could have a lone sub vs 3loaded cvs at sea, that would be a +ev attack, but it still wont have good odds, so i would not add it in my calculations for odds for that combat round.

    Still, let’s take a look at WHY it is 100% win sending the bomber. Your Bomber, fighter and one sub  fight against a BB.  If we go by theses ‘‘statistics’’, the battle is at 93-97% when in fact it’s 100% win Low luck. There is NO way around it.

    Let’s do the “maths”: 4+3 = 7. That’s 1 automatic hit, and 1/6 for a possible second hit. PLUS 2/6 for the sub in yet another possible hit. Let’s say everything miss and the damaged BB hit back. The sub goes, another automatic hit goes in, the BB hit back again before sinking, the fighter goes. Worst case scenario, still 100% win.

    In a oob setup with dices this is just utterly blatenly false, and just completely stupid. Again read the topic, this discussion is about using DICES

    Thats the reason why playing LL and dices this game becomes two different games. Those attacks that might have 100% in low luck becomes lower with dices. So useing the odds from low luck to determin a winning strategy in a dice enviroment is just completely stupid, you have to use the odds the dices actually have to find it.

    For a quick example go check out my tourney game in the tech tourney vs DemolitionMan. German 1 i failed BSt eventhough i had 100% in LL and 92% in dices. Thats what this guide is all about, understanding the differences between LL and dices AND learn how to calculate the true odds for an attack or a group of attacks in dice enviroment.

    Now this thread have been derailed enough, start a new thread and i will answer you there if you still want to discuss things on the side of this topic.


  • Derailing your thread… wow…Then WHY the hell did you come yapping about your dices and statistics when you knew it was a low luck based strat? And THEN starts another thread STILL using my strat as an exemple and try prove it wrong, AGAIN talking about dices when it’s a low luck strat?

    Let me tell it to you short, with dices you don’t say a 100% attack move on Caucasus and a 20% attack on Congo is an OVERALL strat of 20% odds… it’s two different battles with way different importance, one is at 100% and the other 20%. Caucasus WILL 100% likely get trough ( if we beleive what that triple A sim says) despite you multiplying by Congo’s 20% odds…

    I’m not saying your odds per territory are wrong, I’m saying multiplying odds of different battles is WRONG and gives no relevent idindication whatsoever. Geez!? Multiply the odds of eating apples by the odds of eating oranges all you want, it will still be the same separate number of apples and oranges eaten at the end until you eatablish a common denominator, ex saying they are fruits.

    You assume all battle worth the same, that a battle is a fixed value when it’s a different variable for each battle. Taking X and Y are different battles , you can’t determine odds until you determine X and Y value even if you know the odds.

    How do you determine the value and importance of a battle? Thats up to you, let’s say for exemple sake you would do it on territory value as that common denominator and want to know how many ipcs you are likely to hold in the end of turn. It’s basic maths, (4 100%) * (120%)  would at least tell you you have 100% chances to achieve 4.5 ipc of your objectives. Which means 4ipc sure and 20% chance for 1 more ipc. Now that’s a bit more relevant as an overall turn overview…

    You could do that with units involved, how many you destroy or lose, and other variety of values for each battle but bluntly saying you just multiply all battle odds equally without considering the battles worth themselves makes no sense at all. Going around saying its ''how maths work ‘’ won’t change that fact.

    P.S: Quoting: “a retard that sack his best deffensive units in a battle thats not huge in his favor”.  I think you really need to lose a game against me, I’ll see if I can make the time…


  • up for a pbf game anytime with dices.

    And the maths still stands, you just dont get the concept behind probability, and thats what this thread is about, not low luck, wich is designed to partially remove probability. Example would be 2arms attacking a territory, with LL youre 100% sure to take it vs 1inf. With dices youre not 100% anymore, and you dont have to play many games to actually experience that.

    In a turn in AA you have a goal you want to achive, by adding the probabilities of the different battles you are doing you get the odds for the goal to be achieved. If the goal is to get the 3rd NO with a nation, you multiply the different attacks related to that and you get the odds you will have the 3rd NO after the turn. All the others reading this thread is grasping this concept, so it might be about time you get ure head out of the sand and read it again til you actually understand the concept of probability.


  • @Corbeau Blanc

    So leave out the battles that are irrelevant to the overall game, and you can find the odds of your important battles succeeding.

    And starting around August 7 or 8, I would love to play a forum game to test this strat as well.

    Don’t try to use low luck to figure out strats for games with dice. And PLEASE stop trying to say we are wrong by comparing low luck odds to dice odds. It’s like we are counting apples and then you say we are wrong because there are a different number of oranges.  :wink:


  • I’m not talking of low luck here so stop bring that up, i’m talking of your odds formula. Pin, any monkey can use triple A.  Multiplying each battle odds together to get an overall % is not hard either. Your overall % might be right mathematically but it does not means anything outside of the context of each individual battle even if you feel that number is right. Can you get that concept?

    You dodged every one sentence where i demonstrated how each battle was also a different variable in itself as well as the overall goal is a varibale that you absolutely ignore in your equation.

    Your formula yield a number 0.x but that number means nothing. There is simply 2 ( or more ) variables you did not assign any value to:

    Overall = ?
    BattleX value =
    BattleY value =
    etc for each additional value.

    Butcher at least understood my point and answered to leave battles that have a different value outside of the equation. So then, what’s the point of even using that formula in the first place. It just serve to prove it’s useless.

    Determine a value to your battles and your battle plan first. Algebra is part of maths. I gave you an easy exemple how to do this when wanting to know how much Ipcs territory value your likely to hold in the end of a turn.

    I’ll repeat it since it is THAT point I want you to reply to:

    Declare the variables first, 3 battles, 9 different variables:

    BattleY = Y * Yodds
    BattleX = X * Xodds
    BattleZ = Z * Zodds

    Yodds = 0.30
    Xodds = 0.45
    zodds = 0.80

    Overall Goal = X+Y+Z = 9 ipc
    Y = 3 ipc
    X = 2 ipc
    Z = 4 ipc

    BattleY = 0.9 ipc
    BattleX = 0.9 ipc
    BattleZ = 3.2 ipc

    Your chances are to reach least 5ipc upon your 9ipc Overall Goal. Now you have an indication of something relevant  Still,  even tough the ‘‘correct maths’’ says 5 ipc odds, that we know our 5ipc is the right number and we beileive in our formula, that is maths and everyone here grasp the concept, it woul still be wrong.

    You must still take into account the fact thoses territory values are not fractionable ( yep, it means the perfect formula would have additional variables ). Insult as you want, cry to the gods if you beileive in them, you would still likely only gain 4 ipc.

    I am a software devlopper in real life and beileive me, when i see someone come around with a math formula and say: ‘‘look, just calculate it, you will get the same numbers as me’’ I know that guy just see his formula, his numbers and never figured there are other varibales to consider in any algorythm.

    The longest part for me when I code, is declaring each variables and assuring myself they mean something. If thoses are wrong, and even if they are right but unnessary, that your code is correct or not, it will feed itself on irrelevant data.

    So sir, that’s my end point. You can easily convince me your equation are right for dice odds in each individual battle, you can’t however convince me they are relevant on a global picture without determining more variables and adding them to your equation. IF you don’t understand that now, I see no point in pursuing the conversation.

    Set the game up, i never played pbf but why not. I’ll play your dices, NOs.  However, no bids and no techs.


  • Math isn’t some magical way to figure out everything you want to know, it is a tool. And like any other tool, you need to know how to use it correctly. So far, this is just a basics guide. We haven’t really gone in depth at all.

    I can’t personally attest to TripleA, since I have never used it.

    @Pin

    If you wish to keep the relevant info in this thread easily accesible, I suggest a new thread or making an article. Like I said before, you can use any of my posts here.


  • Butcher: just pressed on time atm, but i will clean it up and either post it in first post or make a new one in time :)


  • @ Corbeau Blanc

    I’m wondering if you are still interested in some test games. I sent you a PM a few days ago with a about it, so read that before you reply.

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