I Need an odds calculation



  • Germany attacks with:

    28 - Infantry
    3 - Mech Infantry
    14 - Artillery
    20 - Tanks

    Russia defends with:

    58 - Infantry
    2 - Mech Infantry
    2 - Tanks
    2 - AA guns
    1 - Strategic Bomber
    1 - Tactical Bomber
    7 - Fighters

    Result?

    Who will win that battle the majority of the time? (let’s say out of 5 times)



  • Russia - over 90%, as I’m getting.



  • @Alsch91:

    Russia - over 90%, as I’m getting.

    Thats good for me, thanks.

    Any second opinions?



  • Anyone know the result of this battle using low luck?



  • Not counting the AA guns my calc shows low 90% wins for Russia, less than 1% chance of MAD with around 160 IPC loss for Russia which is most of their infantry.

    Note I don’t have a calculator for the AA guns as casualties.



  • Sorry to barge in, but while were on the subject……

    What would the odds be of 5 inf 2 fig and 1 tac bomber -vs- 7 inf?



  • @Young:

    Germany attacks with:

    28 - Infantry
    3 - Mech Infantry
    14 - Artillery
    20 - Tanks

    Russia defends with:

    58 - Infantry
    2 - Mech Infantry
    2 - Tanks
    2 - AA guns
    1 - Strategic Bomber
    1 - Tactical Bomber
    7 - Fighters

    Result?

    Who will win that battle the majority of the time? (let’s say out of 5 times)

    http://aacalc.nfshost.com/

    It doesn’t include the new unit and unit values from Global but you can replace those (mechs are placed on the infantry box, tactical bombers on the bombers box if there’s also armor, etc). There’s isn’t no easy way to set it for naval battles that include carriers though.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    DON’T ATTACK with Germany is the bottom line, I can tell you that without running the dice…

    What would the odds be of 5 inf 2 fig and 1 tac bomber -vs- 7 inf?

    Not too bad…  5 + 6 + 4 = 15  over 8 hits, vs 14 over 7 hits…

    Thing is you are losing guys at 1, to his guys at 2  so… first round  looks like this…

    2.5 hits vs 2.2 hits…  Assume 2 each

    Second round

    2.2 vs 1.8  assume 2 and 2…

    In your last round…  My guts going to tell me, you’ll have 1 or 2 inf + planes vs your opponents 1 or 2 inf…

    So it all really depends on your luck in the first round, and your purpose for the attack…  IE, is it his capital?  Is it an NO?  can you risk planes?  Do you have to keep your INF alive?  etc etc…



  • The pourpuse is to destroy the germany inf stack in finlan plus if u succeed and also take norway then thats 2 territories for that russian NO. Tonight i will probably roll it out a few times to get a better understanding.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    If you have the means and the resources, then by all means ATTACK.  You’ll kill units he can’t replace.

    That said…  judge after each round, dice can do amazing things… I would go in for 1 round, and see what happens.  Your Worst case is you’ll roll bad / or he good, and you lose an extra infantry… Big deal.

    If you can’t stand the risk of losing some units on a few different bets, then don’t even play the game!



  • I just figured the russians needed as many units they can get. I was going to do it anyway to destroy or just wound that stack



  • @Gargantua:

    DON’T ATTACK with Germany is the bottom line, I can tell you that without running the dice…

    What would the odds be of 5 inf 2 fig and 1 tac bomber -vs- 7 inf?

    Not too bad…  5 + 6 + 4 = 15  over 8 hits, vs 14 over 7 hits…

    Thing is you are losing guys at 1, to his guys at 2  so… first round  looks like this…

    2.5 hits vs 2.2 hits…   Assume 2 each

    Second round

    2.2 vs 1.8   assume 2 and 2…

    In your last round…  My guts going to tell me, you’ll have 1 or 2 inf + planes vs your opponents 1 or 2 inf…

    So it all really depends on your luck in the first round, and your purpose for the attack…  IE, is it his capital?  Is it an NO?  can you risk planes?  Do you have to keep your INF alive?  etc etc…

    79-81% chance to win that fight as the attacker.  You lose around 21 IPCs at the cost of the defender’s 19 IPC.  My guess is somewhere around losing 4 Inf and a Fighter when it is all said and done.  Its uncommon from a land battle to not want to take the territory you are attacking, so you’d have to take that last fighter as a loss in order to take the territory and collect the IPC’s from it.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    And that my friends, is why Guts, confidence, and RESOLVE, will beat any odds calculator.  Any time.



  • ……

    So Germany should attack, assuming it has the guts?

    :lol:



  • www.dskelly.com has an odds calculator with the 1940 rules


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    So Germany should attack, assuming it has the guts?

    As I said,  Guts, confidence, and resolve  - will beat any odds calculator.

    Clearly, when you have a weak attack, you might have the guts, but… you certainly won’t have the confidence, and the lack of units is your lack of resolve… so.  Based on my gut, it’s a bad attack 😛



  • @Gargantua:

    So Germany should attack, assuming it has the guts?

    As I said,  Guts, confidence, and resolve   - will beat any odds calculator.

    Clearly, when you have a weak attack, you might have the guts, but… you certainly won’t have the confidence, and the lack of units is your lack of resolve… so.  Based on my gut, it’s a bad attack 😛

    Wow, are you a politician in real life?


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    As a matter of fact…  I DO do alot of political work.



  • If you net the losses in the small attack (presumed Russian counter) into the big attack on Moscow (which assumes nothing else changed):

    Its still a 90-93% win for Russia with the same amount of losses.

    That means net-net you didn’t change a damn thing by counter attacking and were better off playing turtle unless that counter attack bought you another turn before Germany got to Moscow.


  • Liaison TripleA '11 '10

    I believe they are two seperate games Spendo… but good observations!



  • I did a quick skim and I don’t think anyone mentioned it so I’m gonna chime in. If you ever are in a game and want to figure out odds in a battle you don’t need a fancy odds calculating website or iphone app.

    All you have to do is figure out the low luck odds in your head or with an old  fashioned pocket calculator. Just add up the total attack value on one side and divide that number by 6. That’s the number of hits you’ll have in round 1 and then just anticipate what the opponent will remove as casualties (likely lower def/atk values first) and then repeat.

    For example, you attack Russia as Germany with 6 infantry, and 3 armor vs their 8 infantry. Your infantry attack at a 1, and the tanks at a 3. That means your attack value is 6 for the infantry (61) and 9 for the tanks (33) for a total of 15. You divide that number by 6 and you have the number of hits you’ll do on average in the first round. 15/6 is 2.5 hits. So you should kill 2 or maybe 3 units. To play it safe I always round down. So lets assume you kill 2.

    Then you’ll figure his odds of hitting you in round 1 the same way. He has 8 inf defending at 2 each for a total of 16 defense. He will get 2.67 hits. Again, I always round in my opponents favor so we can assume he hit you 3 times.

    So that’s round 1. You can then repeat that process to figure out round 2 and so on until you win or lose. So in round 2 you will have 3 inf and 3 tanks vs 6 inf. Your attack value (AV) will be 12, his will be 12. The odds are dead even in R2. If you divide both by 6 you get 2 hits each.

    Round 3 will be your AV of 11 vs his AV of 8, now you’re winning! The more rounds you fight the more the odds are in  your favor since you have higher attack values on your tanks.

    Hope that’s helpful, I just hate it when I’m in a game and people want to figure odds and the next thing you know 5 grown men pull out their smart phones and try to race to see who’s $6 odds calculator app will figure out the answer first when you can do it in your head faster… :roll:


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