Sealion Version 1.0


  • Customizer

    To help Jim on documenting this Strategy i have taken time to format the moves:

    GERMANY: Turn 1

    Purchase:

    1 CV, 1 SS, 1 AP

    save
    $1

    Land Combat Movements:
    Holland  to Normandy: 1 inf, 1 art
    Romania to Yugoslavia:1 inf, 1 tank
    Slovakia to Yugoslavia:2 inf, 1 tank
    South Germany to Yugoslavia:2 inf
    West Germany to France:2 inf, 1 art, 4 mec
    Holland to France: 3 inf, 3 tanks
    South Germany to France: 2 tanks
    Poland to Yugoslavia: 1 Tank

    Key land battle results:

    Battle of France
    5 Inf, 4 Mech, 1 Art, 5 tanks vs. 7 Inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 Fighter

    R1

    Attack
    5 Inf, 4 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits
    Defend
    7 Inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 Fighter = 28 - 5 hits

    R2

    Attack
    4 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits
    Defend
    2 Inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 Fighter = 18 - 3 hits

    R3

    Attack
    1 Mech, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits
    Defend
    2 tanks, 1 Fighter = 10 - 2 hits

    75% battle for Germany

    Battle of Yugoslavia:
    5 Inf, 3 tanks vs. 5 Inf

    R1

    Attack
    5 Inf, 3 tanks = 14 - 2 hits
    Defend
    5 Inf = 10 - 2 hits

    R2

    Attack
    3 Inf, 3 tanks = 12 - 2 hits
    Defend
    3 Inf = 6 - 1 hit

    R3

    Attack
    2 Inf, 3 tanks = 11 - 2 hits
    Defend
    1 Inf = 2 - 0 hit

    98% battle for Germany

    Sea Zone 106 Attacks:
    From Sea Zone 117: 1 SS
    From Sea Zone 118: 1 SS

    Battle of sz106
    2 SS vs 1 DD, 1 AP
    Attack
    2 SS = 4 - 1 hit
    Defend
    1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

    78% battle for Germany
    Sea Zone 109 Attacks:
    From Holland: 1 Fighter
    From Sea Zone 108: 1 SS

    Battle of sz109
    1 SS, 1 Fighter vs. 1 DD, 1 AP
    Attack
    1 SS, 1 Fighter = 5 - 1 hit
    Defend
    1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

    88% battle for Germany

    I’ll lose the SS, as I didn’t lose one in sz106
    Sea Zone 111 attacks:
    From Norway: 1 Fighter
    From Sea Zone 124: 1 SS
    From West Germany: 1 Tactical Bomber
    From Germany: 1 Bomber

    Battle of sz111
    1 SS, 1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber vs. 1 BB, 1 CA

    R1
    Attack
    1 SS, 1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber = 13 - 2 hits
    Defend
    1 CA, 1 BB = 7 - 1 hit

    R2
    Attack
    1 Fighter, 1 tactical, 1 Bomber = 11 - 2 hits
    Defend
    1 damaged BB = 4 - 1 hit

    90% battle for Germany

    Sea Zone 112 Attacks:
    From Sea Zone 113: 1 BB, 1 CA
    From West Germany: 1 Fighter

    Battle of Sea Zone 112
    1 CR, 1 BB, 1 Fighter vs. 2 CA

    Attack
    1 CA, 1BB, 1 Fighter = 10 - 2 hits
    Defend
    2 CA = 6 - 1 hit

    96% battle for Germany

    Sea Zone 110 Attacks:
    From Sea Zone 103: 1 SS
    From West Germany : 1 Fighter, 2 Tactical

    Battle of sz110
    1 SS, 1 Fighter, 2 tactical vs. 1 DD, 1 BB

    R1
    Attack
    1 SS, 1 Fighter, 2 tactical = 12 - 2 hits
    Defend
    1 DD, 1 BB = 6 - 1 hit

    R2
    Attack
    1 Fighter, 2 tactical = 10 - 2 hits
    Defend
    1 Damaged BB = 4 - 1 hit

    93% battle for Germany

    Non Combat Movement:

    Germany to West Germany
    6 Inf, 4 art

    South Germany to West Germany
    4 Inf

    South Germany to Germany
    1 art

    Sea Zone 113 to Sea Zone 115
    1 AP ( load from Poland 2 Inf to Finland)

    Romania to Bulgaria
    1 Inf

    Norway to Finland
    2 Inf

    Sea Zone111 to West Germany
    1 Tactical, 1 Bomber

    Sea Zone 110 to West Germany
    2 Tactical

    Sea Zone 109 to Sea Zone 112
    1 Fighter

    Place

    1 CV, 1 TT, 1 SS in Sea Zone 112

    Collect

    $64


    Germany

    Buys

    1 CV, 1 sb, 1 TT

    save
    $1

    CM

    Hol Bel to Nor Bor
    1 inf, 1 art

    Rom to Yugo
    1 inf, 1 tank

    Slov Hun to Yugo
    2 inf, 1 tank

    South Ger to Yugo
    2 inf

    West Ger to France
    2 inf, 1 art, 4 mec

    Hol Bel to France
    3 inf, 3 tanks

    South Ger to France
    2 tanks


  • Customizer

    sz113 to sz112
    1 CR, 1 BB

    Nor to sz111
    1 fht

    Ger to sz111
    1 bmb

    Holl Bel to sz109
    1 fht

    sz103 to sz110
    1 sb

    sz124 to sz111
    1 sb

    West Ger to sz111
    1 tac

    West Ger to sz112
    1 fht

    West Ger to sz110
    1 fht, 2 tac


  • Customizer

    Breaks over.  I’ll finish later.



  • Are you going to roll dice?


  • Customizer

    No dice.  Only pips rounded.



  • I feel like I’m in the movie mallrats and my name is Gill.


  • Customizer

    sz108 to sz109
    1 sb

    sz117 to sz106
    1 sb

    sz118 to sz106
    1 sb


  • Customizer

    I will round pips to the nearest multiple of 6


  • Customizer

    Battle of sz106
    2 sb vs 1 DD, 1 TT

    att
    2 sb = 4 - 1 hit

    def
    1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

    78% battle for Germany


  • Customizer

    Battle of sz109
    1 sb, 1 fht vs 1 DD, 1 TT

    att
    1 sb, 1 fht = 5 - 1 hit

    def
    1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

    88% battle fo Germany

    I’ll lose the sb, as I didn’t lose one in sz106


  • Customizer

    Battle of sz111
    1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb vs 1 BB, 1 CR

    R1

    att
    1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb = 13 - 2 hits

    def
    1 CR, 1 BB = 7 - 1 hit

    R2

    att
    1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb = 11 - 2 hits

    def
    1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit

    90% battle for Germany


  • Customizer

    Battle of sz110
    1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac vs 1 DD, 1 BB

    R1

    att
    1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac = 12 - 2 hits

    def
    1 DD, 1 BB = 6 - 1 hit

    R2

    att
    1 fht, 2 tac = 10 - 2 hits

    def
    1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit

    93% battle for Germany


  • Customizer

    Battle of sz112
    1 CR, 1 BB, 1 fht vs 2 CR

    att
    1 CR, 1BB, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

    def
    2 CR = 6 - 1 hit

    96% battle for Germany


  • Customizer

    1 more move I forgot.

    Pol to Yugo
    1 tank

    Battle of Yugo
    5 inf, 3 tanks vs 5 inf

    R1

    att
    5 inf, 3 tanks = 14 - 2 hits

    def
    5 inf = 10 - 2 hits

    R2

    att
    3 inf, 3 tanks = 12 - 2 hits

    def
    3 inf = 6 - 1 hit

    R3

    att
    2 inf, 3 tanks = 11 - 2 hits

    def
    1 inf = 2 - 0 hit

    98% battle for Germany


  • Customizer

    Battle of Nor Bor
    1 inf, 1 art vs 1 inf

    att
    1 inf, 1 art = 4 - 1 hit

    def
    1 inf = 2 - 0 hit

    88% battle for Germany



  • What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?



  • @calvinhobbesliker:

    What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

    Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).



  • @kcdzim:

    @calvinhobbesliker:

    What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

    Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

    Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect


  • Customizer

    Battle of France
    5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

    R1

    att
    5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

    def
    7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

    R2

    att
    4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

    def
    2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

    R3

    att
    1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

    def
    2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

    75% battle for Germany



  • what about playing by instinct not mathematics? Not that i have a problem with math, being an engineer, it just seems like you are turning the game, or at least the first part of it, into a science.



  • @jim010:

    Battle of France
    5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

    R1

    att
    5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

    def
    7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

    R2

    att
    4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

    def
    2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

    R3

    att
    1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

    def
    2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

    75% battle for Germany

    That reduces the combined probability from 48% to 36%. And if Sealion has a 70% chance IF all battles succeed, then this reduces to 25%


  • Customizer

    NCM

    Ger to West Ger
    6 inf, 4 art

    South Ger to West Ger
    4 inf

    South Ger to Ger
    1 art

    sz113 to sz115
    1 TT (load from Pol 2 inf to Fin)

    Rom to Bulg
    1 inf

    Nor to Fin
    2 inf

    sz111 West Ger
    1 tac, 1 bmb

    sz110 to West Ger
    2 tac

    sz109 to sz112
    1 fht

    Place

    sz112
    1 CV, 1 TT, 1 sb

    Collect

    $64



  • @calvinhobbesliker:

    @kcdzim:

    @calvinhobbesliker:

    What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

    Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

    Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect

    If you’re that curious, type it into a calculator yourself.  Jim has done all the real legwork by providing the battle odds.  And Paris WASN’T included, as I said, “per posted odds” and the battle of France had not been posted yet.  With Paris, as of that posting, odds are 36%.  And as he posted afterwards, odds decrease with each additional battle.

    -begin statistics lesson-

    It’s a simple product of all statistical outcomes.  For example, if you’re fighting two battles that are each 50% chance of success, you’ll win both 1/4 of the time (.5 x .5 = .25).

    It’s around 50% for complete success in all seazones.  However, just because you win one battle, it doesn’t reduce your chances in the next battle.  Each chance of success is fully and completely independent.  You could roll all battles except France and win and you’re still facing a 75% success in France as your last battle which is still good odds for success.  The combined chance of success means that if you win in France, there was a 36% chance you’d arrive at that point.


  • Customizer

    Here it is.  The only real ones that need to be won are sz110, 111, 112 and France.

    The rest can be mutual annihilation.

    More often than not, I would think you will get it to look close to this.  The only one I don’t like is France.

    I said before that it is not as good as the India Crush, but I like this the best.


  • Customizer

    Tinker with it and make it your own.  You could forget attacking Nor Bor and use teh units in France to make that a sure thing.


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