• Customizer

    No dice.  Only pips rounded.


  • I feel like I’m in the movie mallrats and my name is Gill.

  • Customizer

    sz108 to sz109
    1 sb

    sz117 to sz106
    1 sb

    sz118 to sz106
    1 sb

  • Customizer

    I will round pips to the nearest multiple of 6

  • Customizer

    Battle of sz106
    2 sb vs 1 DD, 1 TT

    att
    2 sb = 4 - 1 hit

    def
    1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

    78% battle for Germany

  • Customizer

    Battle of sz109
    1 sb, 1 fht vs 1 DD, 1 TT

    att
    1 sb, 1 fht = 5 - 1 hit

    def
    1 DD = 2 - 0 hit

    88% battle fo Germany

    I’ll lose the sb, as I didn’t lose one in sz106

  • Customizer

    Battle of sz111
    1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb vs 1 BB, 1 CR

    R1

    att
    1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb = 13 - 2 hits

    def
    1 CR, 1 BB = 7 - 1 hit

    R2

    att
    1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb = 11 - 2 hits

    def
    1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit

    90% battle for Germany

  • Customizer

    Battle of sz110
    1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac vs 1 DD, 1 BB

    R1

    att
    1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac = 12 - 2 hits

    def
    1 DD, 1 BB = 6 - 1 hit

    R2

    att
    1 fht, 2 tac = 10 - 2 hits

    def
    1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit

    93% battle for Germany

  • Customizer

    Battle of sz112
    1 CR, 1 BB, 1 fht vs 2 CR

    att
    1 CR, 1BB, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

    def
    2 CR = 6 - 1 hit

    96% battle for Germany

  • Customizer

    1 more move I forgot.

    Pol to Yugo
    1 tank

    Battle of Yugo
    5 inf, 3 tanks vs 5 inf

    R1

    att
    5 inf, 3 tanks = 14 - 2 hits

    def
    5 inf = 10 - 2 hits

    R2

    att
    3 inf, 3 tanks = 12 - 2 hits

    def
    3 inf = 6 - 1 hit

    R3

    att
    2 inf, 3 tanks = 11 - 2 hits

    def
    1 inf = 2 - 0 hit

    98% battle for Germany

  • Customizer

    Battle of Nor Bor
    1 inf, 1 art vs 1 inf

    att
    1 inf, 1 art = 4 - 1 hit

    def
    1 inf = 2 - 0 hit

    88% battle for Germany


  • What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?


  • @calvinhobbesliker:

    What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

    Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).


  • @kcdzim:

    @calvinhobbesliker:

    What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

    Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

    Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect

  • Customizer

    Battle of France
    5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

    R1

    att
    5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

    def
    7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

    R2

    att
    4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

    def
    2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

    R3

    att
    1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

    def
    2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

    75% battle for Germany


  • what about playing by instinct not mathematics? Not that i have a problem with math, being an engineer, it just seems like you are turning the game, or at least the first part of it, into a science.


  • @jim010:

    Battle of France
    5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

    R1

    att
    5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

    def
    7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

    R2

    att
    4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

    def
    2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

    R3

    att
    1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

    def
    2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

    75% battle for Germany

    That reduces the combined probability from 48% to 36%. And if Sealion has a 70% chance IF all battles succeed, then this reduces to 25%

  • Customizer

    NCM

    Ger to West Ger
    6 inf, 4 art

    South Ger to West Ger
    4 inf

    South Ger to Ger
    1 art

    sz113 to sz115
    1 TT (load from Pol 2 inf to Fin)

    Rom to Bulg
    1 inf

    Nor to Fin
    2 inf

    sz111 West Ger
    1 tac, 1 bmb

    sz110 to West Ger
    2 tac

    sz109 to sz112
    1 fht

    Place

    sz112
    1 CV, 1 TT, 1 sb

    Collect

    $64


  • @calvinhobbesliker:

    @kcdzim:

    @calvinhobbesliker:

    What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

    Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

    Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect

    If you’re that curious, type it into a calculator yourself.  Jim has done all the real legwork by providing the battle odds.  And Paris WASN’T included, as I said, “per posted odds” and the battle of France had not been posted yet.  With Paris, as of that posting, odds are 36%.  And as he posted afterwards, odds decrease with each additional battle.

    -begin statistics lesson-

    It’s a simple product of all statistical outcomes.  For example, if you’re fighting two battles that are each 50% chance of success, you’ll win both 1/4 of the time (.5 x .5 = .25).

    It’s around 50% for complete success in all seazones.  However, just because you win one battle, it doesn’t reduce your chances in the next battle.  Each chance of success is fully and completely independent.  You could roll all battles except France and win and you’re still facing a 75% success in France as your last battle which is still good odds for success.  The combined chance of success means that if you win in France, there was a 36% chance you’d arrive at that point.

  • Customizer

    Here it is.  The only real ones that need to be won are sz110, 111, 112 and France.

    The rest can be mutual annihilation.

    More often than not, I would think you will get it to look close to this.  The only one I don’t like is France.

    I said before that it is not as good as the India Crush, but I like this the best.

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