Sealion Version 1.0

[jim010]

Battle of sz110
1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac vs 1 DD, 1 BB

R1

att
1 sb, 1 fht, 2 tac = 12 - 2 hits

def
1 DD, 1 BB = 6 - 1 hit

R2

att
1 fht, 2 tac = 10 - 2 hits

def
1 dmg BB = 4 - 1 hit

93% battle for Germany

[jim010]

Battle of sz112
1 CR, 1 BB, 1 fht vs 2 CR

att
1 CR, 1BB, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

def
2 CR = 6 - 1 hit

96% battle for Germany

[jim010]

1 more move I forgot.

Pol to Yugo
1 tank

Battle of Yugo
5 inf, 3 tanks vs 5 inf

R1

att
5 inf, 3 tanks = 14 - 2 hits

def
5 inf = 10 - 2 hits

R2

att
3 inf, 3 tanks = 12 - 2 hits

def
3 inf = 6 - 1 hit

R3

att
2 inf, 3 tanks = 11 - 2 hits

def
1 inf = 2 - 0 hit

98% battle for Germany

[jim010]

Battle of Nor Bor
1 inf, 1 art vs 1 inf

att
1 inf, 1 art = 4 - 1 hit

def
1 inf = 2 - 0 hit

88% battle for Germany

[calvinhobbesliker]

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

[kcdzim]

@calvinhobbesliker:

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

[calvinhobbesliker]

@kcdzim:

@calvinhobbesliker:

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect

[jim010]

Battle of France
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

R1

att
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

def
7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

R2

att
4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

def
2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

R3

att
1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

def
2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

75% battle for Germany

[munchie19]

what about playing by instinct not mathematics? Not that i have a problem with math, being an engineer, it just seems like you are turning the game, or at least the first part of it, into a science.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@jim010:

Battle of France
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks vs 7 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht

R1

att
5 inf, 4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 27 - 5 hits

def
7 inf, 2 art, 2 tank, 1 fht = 28 - 5 hits

R2

att
4 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 22 - 4 hits

def
2 inf, 2 art, 2 tanks, 1 fht = 18 - 3 hits

R3

att
1 mec, 1 art, 5 tanks = 19 - 3 hits

def
2 tanks, 1 fht = 10 - 2 hits

75% battle for Germany

That reduces the combined probability from 48% to 36%. And if Sealion has a 70% chance IF all battles succeed, then this reduces to 25%

[jim010]

NCM

Ger to West Ger
6 inf, 4 art

South Ger to West Ger
4 inf

South Ger to Ger
1 art

sz113 to sz115
1 TT (load from Pol 2 inf to Fin)

Rom to Bulg
1 inf

Nor to Fin
2 inf

sz111 West Ger
1 tac, 1 bmb

sz110 to West Ger
2 tac

sz109 to sz112
1 fht

Place

sz112
1 CV, 1 TT, 1 sb

Collect

$64

[kcdzim]

@calvinhobbesliker:

@kcdzim:

@calvinhobbesliker:

What is the chance that you will win all of these battles?

Per posted odds, around 48% (the product of all percentages).

Which battles don’t have a large effect on Sealion? Exclude the battle of Paris from the list of battles that have no effect

If you’re that curious, type it into a calculator yourself.  Jim has done all the real legwork by providing the battle odds.  And Paris WASN’T included, as I said, “per posted odds” and the battle of France had not been posted yet.  With Paris, as of that posting, odds are 36%.  And as he posted afterwards, odds decrease with each additional battle.

-begin statistics lesson-

It’s a simple product of all statistical outcomes.  For example, if you’re fighting two battles that are each 50% chance of success, you’ll win both 1/4 of the time (.5 x .5 = .25).

It’s around 50% for complete success in all seazones.  However, just because you win one battle, it doesn’t reduce your chances in the next battle.  Each chance of success is fully and completely independent.  You could roll all battles except France and win and you’re still facing a 75% success in France as your last battle which is still good odds for success.  The combined chance of success means that if you win in France, there was a 36% chance you’d arrive at that point.

[jim010]

Here it is.  The only real ones that need to be won are sz110, 111, 112 and France.

The rest can be mutual annihilation.

More often than not, I would think you will get it to look close to this.  The only one I don’t like is France.

I said before that it is not as good as the India Crush, but I like this the best.

[jim010]

Tinker with it and make it your own.  You could forget attacking Nor Bor and use teh units in France to make that a sure thing.

[calvinhobbesliker]

Then you have a 60% chance of winning all 4 of those battles. Add to that the 70% chance of battle of London suceeding, you get 42%

[jim010]

You have to take into account the number of dice you are throwing as well if you want to be technical, as each throw is its own event.  Also, the more dice you through in a battel, the more liely the outcome will be normalized.

Are we looking at counters to this or the odds?  I’m here to look at counters.

[Zarnak]

It’s depressing to see the odds on the UK navy in G1.  If balance really needs to be looked at I vote for a return of the “each side gets 12 IPC pre-game to spend” that we saw in the original Europe.  Let’s say Germany/Italy has to place theirs first.  It would throw a monkey wrench in the “always do this” strategies.

Italy might buy a cruiser to try to save her fleet.  Then France gets four more inf!  Germany would be hard pressed to devote it’s air force to the destruction of the UK navy in that scenario.  There’s alot of different variations possible.

[calvinhobbesliker]

@jim010:

You have to take into account the number of dice you are throwing as well if you want to be technical, as each throw is its own event.  Also, the more dice you through in a battel, the more liely the outcome will be normalized.

Are we looking at counters to this or the odds?  I’m here to look at counters.

If something has a less than 50% chance and losing that set of moves will lose the game, then there need not be a counter.

[jim010]

Then fire up a real game.

[jim010]

Not to mention, I’m not locked into the tactic until I have to buy the 9 TTs.