Back on topic, I think that is a great move. I have never played AA42, but a 50/50 26 IPCs for 6 is definitely worth it. Also, since transports and subs cannot be taken as hits, that dooms that poor UK fleet. If I were playing, I would definitely hit both SZs.
Depends on how you see the odds. You’ll have 25% chance of winning both battles, 50% for winning at least 1 and 25% for losing both. I’d rather prefer to send the sub to SZ2 and raise the odds to win that battle.
Actually, you have 30% chance of winning both battles. However, it is even better. In SZ, with ftr and bmr you have 61% chance of winning AND a 20% chance of tying with the BB - only 18.9% chance of not killing the BB. So, you would have 40% chance of winning the US battle and at least killing the UK BB.
Also, assuming the Russian player put his sub in SZ2, sending the sub in doesn’t help your odds all that much. Your odds of surviving with your bomber and killing the transport are 84.6%. That is only 3.5% higher odds of killing the Battleship. True, your odds are 23.7% higher of killing the transport, but I would say the BB is the most important part of the fleet; the transport can be much more easily replaced.
HOWEVER, it gets even better. The odds of winning (when attacking with the sub) would go slightly (maybe more than slightly) lower if the allies took the russian sub first from the German sub’s shot. Unfortunately, my odds calculator cannot be set up to hit anything before the first hit on a battleship.
Also, your logic can be reversed too. Sure, the odds of winning both battles may only be 30% (40% counting tying), but the odds of losing them both is only 9% (19-20% counting tying). This is compared to the 13% in the attack only SZ2 scenario.
So the odds of SZ2 go up slightly (maybe) by sending the sub there, but is it worth losing the 50/50 chance of killing the US Atlantic fleet?
Let’s look at the Net IPC gain. (These net gains were derived from multiplying the odds for each outcome of the battle by the cost of the units lost in that outcome (subtracting the attackers loss from the defender’s loss - transports were included)
In attacking both the net IPC gain is 17.5 IPCs
In attacking just SZ2 the net IPC gain is 8.74 IPCs
Attacking both yields a 8.75 IPC higher net gain than attacking just SZ 2. Practically, it should be around 9.6 since some of the SZ2 only net gain is from the Russian sub, which is pretty useless later on.
So by attacking only SZ2, you are giving up more IPCs than a transport only for 24% more odds of killing a transport (the >3.5% for the battleship is negligible and the Russian sub is rather useless). That makes little sense.
Buster27, before before I did the math, I thought your move was a good one. Now I KNOW it is a good one.