I haven’t seen this move discussed on the boards but I used it twice this weekend and was successful both times.
I don’t have the game board in front of me but from my description it should be clear. I use the solo German sub in the Atlantic to attack the USA fleet off the east coast of the USA consisting of 2 transports and 1 cruiser. I am poorly trained in statistics and so the unusual aspects of a sub’s sneak attack on the win/loss statistics have me stumped but it seems a good roll of the dice for the sub because the payoff is so large. The fleet is collectively worth 26 IPC and I’ve won the gambit both times I’ve tried it. This move can set the USA back a turn at a small cost. The opportunity cost of this maneuver is that you will not be killing off the UK Battleship in the North Atlantic and it is a suicide run for the sub, however it is costly for the US and delay’s their atlantic buildup nicely.
Can anyone figure out the statistics of this maneuver?