Bidding Levels for Power Europe

[221B Baker Street]

Assume RR.  Also, it might be interesting to discuss what to buy and where to put these forces.

[DarthMaximus]

In RR,

I’ll usually bid between 9-13, with all new units going to Ukr.

If I thought I could get away with it I might try 14-15, but generally I think a 12 bid gives the Axis a good enough shot to win, whether it is for Europe or Afr.

[Guest]

Maybe it is because I have never played against any of the SERIOUS players here, but…

In an RR game, yep, I’d probably go for Ukraine for the extra forces, to help keep Russia honest in Caucuses and give me two strong avenues of attack on Russia.

In a non-RR game, those forces would go to Eastern.  That would prevent Russia from taking Eastern in R1, and also stage my forces for a Karelia Strike.

Here is my reasoning…
If Russia does the Karelia Stack to the point where Germany, WITH the extra 4 INF, is facing a close fight for Karelia, then they have not seriously harmed me anywhere else (as Germany).  It also means that Caucuses are basically stripped bare (probably 1 or 2 INF).  On G1, no other allied nation will have been able to re-inforce yet.  So if Karelia is too tough of a nut to crack, I am taking Caucuses… HARD.  The extra INF are going to remain in Eastern (along with other force consolidations) to prevent Russia from moving in there unless they do it in full force.

That leaves Russia a choice on R2:  Take out my Caucuses force, or take out Eastern.  They simply won’t have the forces to do both.  If they take Caucuses, then my strike force in Eastern falls on a weakened Karelia (due to forces being sent into Caucuses).  If they go after Eastern, my Caucuses forces are looking at a strong Russia strike, and possibly knocking Russia out (at least temporally) in G2.  If they build in Russia, my Caucuses force moves south and raids in the Middle East, blitzing and taking lots of IPC’s.  This is also what I do with at least some of that Caucuses force if Russia simply builds and does not go after either strike team.

[Linkon]

W/RR, all Ger ships survive.

A single trn bid for the Baltic sea will be enough for Ger gain favorable odds on a GBR invasion.
$ 32  will buy 6 tech rolls. 
HB or LRA will prove decisive.

2 trn bid will allow Ger to win GBR invasion without any Tech rolls.

We used to have some threads about Operation Sea Lion.

[Guest]

I simply am not going to have the game come down to a couple of tech rolls in the first offesnive series of moves of the game.

Without a round 1 combat forces build, Russia is going to spank the sh*t it of Germany in R2; taking Ukraine AND Eastern, maybe even Finland, depending on how many troops Germany sends to UK.

OK, so you build trannies in G1, apparently in the Baltic Sea if you want to use them in G2 to invade UK.  You can build 4 trannies to add to that sub and tranny.  5 1’s against a UK response of 2 3’s and a 4?  I have an offensive rating of 10 in 3 pieces against a defense rating of 5 with 6 pieces.  (Note I am assuming that Germany has destroyed the UK navy in G1 and did not remove any initial ships from the Baltic sea zone.  No non-build ships can reach Baltic in G1.)  I am going to sink 2 ships round 1, lose a fig, then sink 1 or 2 more, then lose another fig.  Then sink another tranny, my bomber would likely be missed, but let’s suppose it was shot down.  UK just sank the sub and 3-4 of those 5 tranny’s.  Let’s say only 3 were sunk.  Heck, let’s say it was only 2 tranny’s sunk, you have 3 left.  And let’s say that Russia did NOT attack those remaining tranny’s in R2, eventhough they could finish blowing it out of the water just with their 2 figs (2 3’s against 3 1’s).  Let’s also say that the US sent NOTHING to UK in US1; that they just pissed around and either attacked Japan, or just built up forces ‘for later’, not even sending their bomber or Eastern US fig to UK.  WHAT DID UK BUY IN UK1?  If their fleet is gone, and there are Germany tranny’s in quantity on the board, THEY ARE GOING TO BUILD SOME INFANTRY!  And add that to the 2 INF and the tank already in UK…

So in a worst case scenario, where the UK is all by itself attacking Germany’s fleet, and no one is sending forces of any kind to UK, Germany has 3 tranny’s available; 4 if they moved the Med tranny into range also.  Their BB has also been staged for use against UK.  They moved their figs to Western so they could be used (and lost NONE killing the UK fleet).  So, they have 5 figs, and a bomber , a single BB, and 8 INF.  Keep in mind this is worse than the  absolute worst case scenario with Germany losing nothing while taking out UK naval forces, and Germany hitting well above average on the UK air strike on the tranny fleet.

But even with all of that, UK still can have 12 INF and a tank waiting for the German attackers; a tough fight for Germany.

And since this assumes so much going south for UK with the dice, first when Germany kills the fleet with no loses, then when UK counter’s and get ripped for little gain, and that no other allied power is going to do squat against Germany to stop this move…

I simply think it is not even worth discussing as a viable strategy against anyone but the most novice player.  Because if you even TRY to set this up, and lose in the UK (which is more than highly probable), then Germany has blown its wad.  They built no land forces in G1, they tranported out a shitload of forces in G2, and Russia has been doing SOMETHING for the past 2 rounds and by now has some major forces that are going to wipe Germany off the board.  This of course does not consider even actions of the US.

[Linkon]

NC,

The idea is for the UK invasion on G1.  The extra transport enables it.

The extra transport will be a major boost.  The a 2nd trn or favorable tech rolls (HB and/or LRA) will almost guarantee it.

Sink all ships around UK and invade.

Winning just about wins the game.  Losing will be crushing as you described for R2. 
It was an all-or-nothing game-on-the-line battle.

Prior Sea Lion posts indicated ~10% odds of winning with the initial set-up, and 50+% chance w/HB.

Arguments against generally followed that it was a test of luck in the first round and gave no indication of player skill level.  It was also very decisive, meaning both sides might as well set up the board again for a new game.  One allied counter-strategy advised trn 2 Rus inf to UK.  More aggressive strats would move 1-2 Rus ftrs to UK.  This would expose Kar to the G1 attack.

[Guest]

OK, my apologies, was not thinking in terms of a G1 attack in a game with a bid high enough for 2 added tranny’s AND RR.  I would say that is enough to tilt the scales in Axis favor regardless.  Not sure why anyone would want to play a game THAT unbalanced.

OK, let’s assume that anything that can reach UK is used there.  2 figs, 6 inf, 1 bomber. 
Attack rating 16  with 9 pieces.
UK defense is 2 figs, 1 bmb, 2 INF, 1 tank
Defense rating is 15 and 6 pieces.

The deciding factor is not only a single battle, it is a single dice roll:  UK’s AA.  If they hit 1, they will probably pull off a narrow victory, if they miss all, Germany will will.

Why bother playing that game?  Who would find it enjoyable or challenging?  Just start off rolling 3 dice.  If any ones come up, Allies win, of no 1’s, Axis wins.

[Hamar]

the problem with a bid of 2 trns in rr is not the G1 attack on uk.  that can be easily prevented by sending infantry and air from russia to uk for a turn.  the real problem is an all air clearing of uk sz (4ftr vs. a maximum of 1bb, 2trn, 1sub) and wmd sz (1ftr, 1bmb vs. 1bb).  this allows germany to noncombat 4trn, 2subs, and 1bb into wsp sz on G1 where they are an impediment to allied shipping and are a direct threat on both london and washington.  the allies will probably have to commit to a total air force sacrifice to deal with that navy, by sending first 2ftr, 1bmb, 1trn against it with the uk, and then 1-2ftr, 1bmb, 1trn with usa.  a lot of things can go terribly wrong for the allies in that situation.  imagine if the battleship survives but the allies lose all air units!

[Guest]

So what is the problem for the allies with a tranny fleet off Spain?  In order for it to be much of a threat, Germany has to stage forces in Western, or bleed off forces in Norway.  Either way, it severely weakens their position against Russia.  It also weakens Germany’s position for moving troops into Africa.

So UK hits that fleet with 2 figs and a bmb.  They score 2 hits.  The subs can;t fire back, the BB hits one, the tranny’s may or may not hit one.  The bmb fires again and sinks a 3rd unit, and is lost on the counter.  Let’s say Germany took 2 of the 3 losses as subs, so they maintain air-defense.  Then the US flies over with 2 figs and a bmb, killing 2 hits on the first pass, taking 1 or 2 hits in response.  They hit 1 more on the 2nd round, and lose another one.  Let’s say that was the end of their planes.  So the total is 6 Allied hits on Germany, 6 Germany hits on the Allies.  No planes in UK or US, right?  And Germany has a navy of ONE Battleship, period.

Germany also would have lost 2-3 planes against the UK navy on G1, planes that Germany can;t afford to replace.

So at the end of Round 1…
Germany has no fleet, has lost half of its Air Force, has delivered either no forces to Africa, or stripped forces from Norway and Western to send forces to Algeria.  So either Russia is going to take a weakened Norway, or Germany will not have forces in Africa and will lose a LOT of IPC’s from an India counter-attack un Africa.  The US built aircraft, and probably a sub or 2, on US 1.  UK probably built a few INF as a precaution, and a couple of figs.

In G2, Germany is stranded in Europe, has either lost Norway, or is going to lose Africa in UK2, has a Navy that can;t do anything except move into the UK Sea Zone for a last-ditch battle against the new RAF; or suicide into 1 or 2 US subs (if it doesn’t die attacking the subs, it will die when those new US figs take off in US 2).  With the lack of extra IPC’s either from lack of gains in Africa and/or from the loss of Norway, Germany is now barely building at a rate above Russia.  And unless that Battleship somehow managed to HOLD the UK Sea Zone, UK has a fleet re-built in UK2, defended by US figs in US2, and does not have enough air-force left to combat it in G3.  Even if they saved their BB and moved it to Gibraltar in G2 to use with the AF for a G3 attack, 1 BB and 2-3 figs plus a bmb against a carrier, 2 figs, 1-2 subs, and 1-2 tranny’s is a suicide mission for the Germans.

A far better use for a 2-tranny bid-buy with Russia RR would be Souther Europe placement to be more flexible and allow for a significant air/land/amphib strike on Caucuses, or strikes in Africa and Middle East.  You can still take out the UK Navy using subs and air-power, consolidate for your Karelia push in G2, while potentially creating a significant second-strike prong in Caucuses that Russia has to consider/counter rather than simply “building in Karelia”.  If you take Caucuses in force, Russia has to sacrifice SOMETHING, and it will probably be Karelia (since they won;t want it to be Russia).