• '16 '15 '10

    This seems like it could work with favorable rolls.  But particularly in a nt scenario, I would share eaten’s concerns about this being rather dicey.  2 bombers for Germany G1 and G2 are nice tactically for keeping the Allies from landing early….but not buying the 10 inf one could have bought might cost Axis down the line when it comes time to lurch for Russia.  If BOTH Axis are buying bombers, if the Allies player is experienced I wonder if Axis will be strong enough to penetrate a Russian stack reinforced by Allied landings.

    This strategy will be much more effective in the new Spring 42 version, where bombing Russia to oblivion will probably be a bread and butter tactic.

    Worth a try in any case!


  • @a44bigdog:

    Bombers are bought to bomb with. There will be losses to AA and there will be rounds where they do not do much damage. That is just part of it, however with regard to the lost bombers that is what they are being bought for.

    good read, a44bigdog.  i also agree my “break even” idea is not best.  i’d like to propose 2 statistics for reasoning about SBR: bomber lifetime, and damage over lifetime.

    it appears that most of the reasoning is over probability of being shot down (1/6), and expected bomber damage given the bomber survives AA (3.5 IPCs), but those are not as useful numbers for reasoning about an SBR campaign.

    these are more reasonable metrics IMO since you are buying bombers for the primary purpose of bombing.  yes, as jen points out, you can use the bombers for other purposes other than SBR.  you can also use them to win land or navy battles (direct damage).  you can also use them to forcing US/UK to buy a carrier or other capital ship (indirect strategical effects).  you can also use them to prevent unescorted transports to the karela sea zone (indirect tactical effects).  these are hard to quantify, so let’s just consider that flexibility a bonus.

    assumptions

    1. each bomber will endure 1 and exactly 1 AA shot on each SBR.  if the allies position AA guns so a bomber would take 2 or more shots, the the bomber does something else other than SBR.
    2. an axis power shall have 3 bombers for SBR.  2 bombers shall SBR moscow or UK, with a max combined damage of 8.  1 bomber shall SBR caucus with a max damage of 4.  the axis powers could station a single SBR base in EE to hit all 3 targets.

    bomber lifetime
    let the lifetime of a bomber be the random variable N.  from assumption (1), the probability of a bomber being shot down on exactly the Nth SBR is
    p(N=n) = (1/6) * (5/6)^(n-1)     for n>=1

    so
    n p(N=n)
    1 0.1667
    2 0.1389
    3 0.1157
    4 0.0965
    5 0.0804
    6 0.0670
    7 0.0558
    8 0.0465
    9 0.0388
    10 0.0323
    11 0.0269
    12 0.0224
    13 0.0187

    or, to phrase the distribution a different way, here’s the probability of a bomber successfully completing n or more SBRs before being shot down.  
    P(N>=n) = (5/6)^n      n>=1

    n p(N>=n)
    1 0.8333
    2 0.6944
    3 0.5787
    4 0.4823
    5 0.4019
    6 0.3349
    7 0.2791
    8 0.2326
    9 0.1938
    10 0.1615
    11 0.1346
    12 0.1122
    13 0.0935

    i’m only interested in the first moment (mean) of this distribution, and it can be shown that the expected value is E[N] = 6.  so each bomber is shot down on the 6th SBR on average, so it makes 5 successful SBRs on average.  yes, i know it can be shot down in the first round, but it is equally likely that the bomber is shot down on the 11th or higher round.  so i’m sticking with 5 successful SBR per bomber.

    SBR damage over lifetime
    let’s consider caucus first, since that’s easy.  let the damage to caucus given a successful SBR be C.  it can be shown that the average result E[C] = 3.0.  
    c P(C=c)
    1 0.1667
    2 0.1667
    3 0.1667
    4 0.5000

    now let’s consider the damage moscow/UK, which is will be the random variable W.  if we send only 1 successful bomber, then E[W] = 3.5.

    if we send 2 successful bombers, then E[W] = 6.44
    w P(W=w)
    2 0.0278
    3 0.0556
    4 0.0833
    5 0.1111
    6 0.1389
    7 0.1667
    8 0.4167

    conclusion
    the caucus bomber will do an average damage of 3/round and will survive for 5 rounds.  therefore, the caucus bomber is expected to deliver 3*5=15 IPCs worth of damage over it’s lifetime.  that means for each bomber purchased to SBR caucus, the russians should expect to lose 15 IPCs.  a $ for $ trade is advantageous.

    the moscow/UK bombers will do an average damage of 3.27/round each and will also survive for 5 rounds.  therefore, the moscow/UK bombers are expected to deliver 5*3.27 = 16.34 IPCs worth of damage over their lifetimes.  that means for each bomber purchased to SBR moscow/UK, the allies should expect to lose 16.34 IPCs.  this is better than $ for $.

    so this seems like a perfectly viable long term strategy.  if you couple this with the bonuses mentioned earlier, this becomes very tough for the allies.

    defense
    IMO, the best defense for the allies would be to work out a 2+ AA route against one of the bomber bases.  we’ll have 4 AA defending russian territories–2 under R control and 2 under UK control.  can’t afford more than 4.  and 4 can really help slow the bleeding.

    move the india AA gun to caucus, and move the UK gun to moscow.  the UK AA gun can be replaced by the EUS AA gun.  the russians would then position their AA pair to take away at least one japanese bomber base.

    for the japs the 3 most likely bomber bases are bury, china, india.  evenki/novo defends against bury.  kaz/novo defends against china.  kaz defends against india.  if the japs spread out and have 2+ bomber bases, then the only thing russia can do is just block the base with the most bombers.  can’t block everything without a 3rd AA, and russia can’t afford it.  for the germans, the most likely bomber base is EE.  arch/WR defends against EE.

    if the russians get into the position where they are trading these territories (evenki/novo/kaz/arch/WR), then they’re screwed.  they can’t afford to leave an AA gun there, so there will be at least 1 bomber base that does not have a 2+ AA defense.  the russians are probably screwed anyways if they are trading territories next to moscow.

    -c


  • This thread is interesting, but I’m not convinced that this is the optimal strategy for the Axis (granted, there can be ONLY one optimal way to play). However, it’s solid and people here seem to have some success with it.

    I have a few problems in strategies bombing Russia:

    1. The Axis player’s expected earnings is by bombing Stalingrad is 0. You’ll get shot down 1/6 of the time and 5/6 of the time you’ll bomb on average 3 IPCs a turn (not 3.5, because of the 4 IPC limit of Stalingrad)
    2. The Axis player’s bombing of Moscow with two Bombers also does less than 3.5 IPC’s per die because of the 8 IPC limit.

    basically, The Axis are at an economical disadvantage. This strategy does have a positive return on investment, but so does every Axis strategy because of their superior tactical starting position. The Axis have to close the economic gap fast, and this method isn’t as fast as other methods. However, it is always fun to find new ways to win. This is a solid strategy. I will give it a shot against some of my lesser foes.

    Have any of the top players tried this strategy? I haven’t been on here in awhile, so I don’t know who is the best player anymore: it seemed like this thread was mainly a debate between two or three players. I would be curious to know what the premier players thought of this strategy…

  • '16 '15 '10

    Theoretically, the potential net IPC loss of bombing is offset by the tactical advantage of crippling Russia’s economy using both powers.  But the Allies have options.  If they see a SBR campaign in combo with an oncoming tank rush, they can shore up Moscow with Arch drops.


  • I have tried this a couple of times, and I do not know if I am just not pulling it off properly, but I find the shortage of ground units really tough to deal with.  The extra money USSR gets in from being able to better hold some European territories sort of makes up for the bombing.  And shielding Moscow with additional AA guns, forcing the Axis to bomb only Caucasus, also puts a damper on things.


  • I’m curious to know…has anyone has tried this strategy with the AARe rules?


  • eatenbyargue, are you doing it as I lined out in the first post? That is the best way I have found to conduct an Axis SBR campaign through quite a bit of testing. Germany is not that much shorter on land units than normal. Not bombing Moscow because of additional AA fire is a mistake, only bombing Caucasus will not eliminate enough of Russia’s income. Remember that Germany only buys 2 additional bombers and uses these until they are gone. With Germany’s 3 bombers and all of their fighters stacked in Eastern Europe it requires a sizable Navy for the Allies to drop in Archangel. Japan is free to purchase as many bombers as they feel the need to execute this strategy however there is a point where Japan will want to shift to tank production, this is generally after Japan has 5 or more bombers on the board.


  • @a44bigdog:

    eatenbyargue, are you doing it as I lined out in the first post? That is the best way I have found to conduct an Axis SBR campaign through quite a bit of testing. Germany is not that much shorter on land units than normal. Not bombing Moscow because of additional AA fire is a mistake, only bombing Caucasus will not eliminate enough of Russia’s income. Remember that Germany only buys 2 additional bombers and uses these until they are gone.

    Surely it is better to bomb Caucasus.  Mathwise:

    2AA Moscow:  Average 2 successful bombing runs per bomber.  Average raid is 3.5 IPC damage.  Cost of 2 runs = 15 IPC for the bomber lost.  So you are losing 8 IPC per bomber invested.

    1AA Caucasus:  Average 5 successful bombing runs per bomber.  Average raid is 3 IPC damage.  (It is 3, not 2.5, because 5 and 6 also count as 4, so (1+2+3+4+4+4)/6=3.)  Cost of 5 runs = 15 IPC for the bomber.  So you are breaking even on the investment.


  • Axis and Allies is NOT an accounting game.

    A bomber in an SBR strategy (Axis or Allied) does not have to do its purchase cost to be effective. It merely has to do enough damage at the appropriate time to strangle your opponents production capability. That last part is the entire purpose of an SBR campaign, shut down your opponents ability to produce and move in and mop up.


  • @a44bigdog:

    Axis and Allies is NOT an accounting game.

    A bomber in an SBR strategy (Axis or Allied) does not have to do its purchase cost to be effective. It merely has to do enough damage at the appropriate time to strangle your opponents production capability. That last part is the entire purpose of an SBR campaign, shut down your opponents ability to produce and move in and mop up.

    OK, but you are only doing .5 IPC less in damage bombing Caucasus.  Surely that little bit of difference is not worth double the AA risk?


  • You are missing the entire point. The Axis specifically Japan needs to be bombing both the Caucasus and Russia. Now Japan may need to increase the number of bombers being sent to Russia due to the increased AA guns, but the goal of the strategy is to choke off Russia’s production ability. Germany will probably have lost some of it’s bombers before additional AA guns are a factor since Germany should only buy 2 additional bombers and send 2 to Russia and 1 to Caucasus as long as they last. Japan can continuously buy bombers if they feel like it, although around 5 or 6 on the map is sufficient. Not all of these need to be sent to bomb Russia, that number is recommended so that losses are immediately replaced and the pressure can be kept up.


  • @a44bigdog:

    You are missing the entire point. The Axis specifically Japan needs to be bombing both the Caucasus and Russia. Now Japan may need to increase the number of bombers being sent to Russia due to the increased AA guns, but the goal of the strategy is to choke off Russia’s production ability.

    I do not think I am missing the entire point, just because I choose to bomb Caucasus over Moscow.  Well obviously if Moscow is only protected by 1 AA gun, you bomb that while you can, but I am just not going to come over to the idea of bombing through 2 AA guns while Caucasus is still available.  It’s just a bad gamble, and sure, it can pay off sometimes, but I do not like bad gambles as a strategy, unless things are truly desperate.  And I cannot see a situation where getting 16% more SBR damage justifies doubling the risk of getting shot down by AA.  If times are that desperate, 16% more SBR damage is not going to save you.

    Also I am curious, have you ever won with this strategy against an opponent of equal skill or better?  In my games, victory seemed a bit out of reach, so I am hesitant to keep trying it.  USSR was losing money to SBR alright, but the extra territories it was able to keep due to the much slower Axis ground build-up seemed to make up for it.  Maybe I did not buy enough bombers with Japan, not sure.  I stayed at about 3 with them.

  • '16 '15 '10

    I’m not sure how Moscow can successfully shield Moscow via AA guns.  Lets say the Russians plop down on a 3rd gun and move another out to Arch, while the Brits move theirs to Cauc.  That aa purchase victory in itself for Axis, and Germany can still bomb Cauc and land in India or China.  Is diverting the bomber worth the aa purchase?  I doubt it but maybe.

    Re the ability of the Luftwaffe to contain Arch drops, if Germany moves their figs out to EE, then the UK fleet is pretty safe in SZ 2 with 2 fig 1 ac 1 bb 4 trans 1 (russian) sub against 3 bomb 5 fig….  It could be bad if Germany got really good dice but that’s an extremely risky attack for the Krauts in a KGF scenario.  USA can eventually move up a destroyer to help…given that they will be able to mass in 12 if Germany’s figs are in EE.

    I think stuff like this is what steered people away from German air buys in Revised…bombers are the only unit with the range to threaten sz 2 and 12 simultaneously but they are economically unfeasible.  The situation has clearly changed in AA42 and AA50.


  • Zhukov44 sometimes an attack on a navy is not necessary. Often the mere threat of an attack can force an opponent to delay, add more ships, or otherwise alter their plans. I have found it beneficial in any war game to make moves that makes an opponent respond, as opposed to allowing them free reign to pursue their strategy at will. This is one of the best things I found about this strategy, it forces an Allied response. Some players are quite good at being flexible and responding as need be to any situation, too many others are rote players that have limited responses based on normally observed moves.

    eatenbyargue, yes I have used this strategy effectively against equally skilled players. The first post is arrived at after several weeks of testing in nightly face to face games with some refinements added from some polishing here online. I will state again from experience that bombing the Caucasus only with Japan is not enough damage and should negate the entire strategy. Additional AA guns may mean the need to send in some additional bombers to get the job done, but choking off Russia’s ability to produce units is the primary goal of the strategy. If you are familiar with battlemap perhaps we could play a game here with me as Axis to demonstrate what I consider the best way to conduct this campaign.


  • Thanks for posting your strategy!

    I`m not going to get involved in any debates because some of you seem to take this game way more seriously than necessary, but I just want to point something out:

    Opponents of this strategy have pointed out that the max damage caused by bombers is 4 ipcs in the caucasus and 8 ipcs in russia. (See the top post on this page, by mjkusn01 for example)

    The 4 IPC max in the caucasus is relevant; however, the IPC max is per bomber not per turn.  So each bomber attacking russia can still do up to 6 damage, and those can combine to go above 8 damage.

    http://www.wizards.com/default.asp?x=ah/faqs/axisrevised

    ‘‘IPC loss from strategic bombing is limited to the territory’s income value. Is that per bomber or per turn?
    Per bomber.’’


  • Most people are playing with LHTR(Larry Harris Tournament Rules). You’re referring to Box Rules where one side can amass a stack of bombers and do a lot of damage. Now the limit for one turn for all bombers/rockets is the value of the territory being bombed. Check the bomber description on page 26. http://www.axisandallies.org/files/AAR_LHTR_v2.0.pdf


  • Oh, I didn’t realize that.

    Thanks for the link. I’ll talk to my buddies about adopting those rules for our next game.

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